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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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18 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am liking the higher amounts for the Cape and Islands I forecasted yesterday, the models ticked warmer and I am going with 3-6" the 6" amounts closer to the canal and the 3" amounts near CHH.

6 inches at the canal huh? That is laughable! How long have you lived on the Cape? I've lived in Southern New England my entire 57 years of life so I have a clue about the Cape climo. Just moved from Pepperell (their 20 years) to South Plymouth and as much as I'd love to get a wintry storm tonight/tomorrow, I know damn well it ain't happening. I don't have the skills that a lot of people have on this board so I don't even attempt to give forecasts but am a weather nut (especially since the Blizzard of 78) and love reading their thoughts. James, I have to say though, you are usually good for a laugh. Thanks! Get your rain coat out for tomorrow, it's going to be coming down hard in the morning.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Crushed 

This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. 

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1 minute ago, Snowbelt said:

6 inches at the canal huh? That is laughable! How long have you lived on the Cape? I've lived in Southern New England my entire 57 years of life so I have a clue about the Cape climo. Just moved from Pepperell (their 20 years) to South Plymouth and as much as I'd love to get a wintry storm tonight/tomorrow, I know damn well it ain't happening. I don't have the skills that a lot of people have on this board so I don't even attempt to give forecasts but am a weather nut (especially since the Blizzard of 78) and love reading their thoughts. James, I have to say though, you are usually good for a laugh. Thanks! Get your rain coat out for tomorrow, it's going to be coming down hard in the morning.

That isn't going to stop the snows that come tonight, it will melt by mid-morning in the torrential tropical rains that occur, as models have 4-5" of rain falling, at least there is no snow pack to destroy

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The one thing I’m noticing is the lack of a cold push. The classic ones have the big cold push the day prior on strong NW winds and set the stage. We just have the cold oozing in despite HP to the north....there is no good push south. On top of that. This low is approaching at a high latitude. So the flow turns east quick and really ends the cold advection off the deck. What we do have is cold coming in from the NE in the interior. That may help them, but it’s curtains for many down here. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of the weirdest storms I've ever tracked. I've never seen models insist on plowing into an Arctic high like this. Ever. If someone can find me an analog, I'm all ears but I've searched. Nada. Ok expecting a huge bust on low level temps by the models. But I'm def gonna be wrong on the colder tick aloft I was expecting. 

If you had to forecast it.. how far north and west does 32 get?

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