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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

UKMET actually skirts the NE coast and emerges at Cape Cod bay. Thats a helluva front end thump in SNE though. Dead body found next to chicken coop, self inflicted, mouth stuffed with chicken pellets.

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That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH.

3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area 

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This vaguely reminds me of an event last year (March 20 2018? that could be totally wrong) in which GFS insisted on warmer/minimal impact in the 48 hours leading up, contrary to Euro/RGEM, and GFS ended up being correct. And Harvey also back-pedaled bigtime.

The synoptics may be totally different, but I have a Memento-tattoo that GFS can rarely pull a coop.

My 6-12 call for Boston area from Wednesday may burn badly. I'm still skeptical a surface low plows into CT/MA. But GFS/RGEM show it, and others are trending that way. 

Why could this be occurring? If you start at hour 0 of tonights 0z GFS, and then scroll back for the equivalent Sat 0z timepoint in previous runs, it looks like the confluence / SSS over Quebec is not pressing down as much in more recent runs... in other words, the prior runs may have over-estimated the confluence?

We'll see, but obviously a terrible 0z suite so far tonight...

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That is a CRAZY subby zone again modeled from N Essex county to east of concord over to Rochester NH.

3’rd or 4’th model now to show that subsidence area 

UK met hammers Eastern areas pretty good on the backside.  Something I think has been on and off with modeling.  5h collapse of heights with a CCB?

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

UK met hammers Eastern areas pretty good on the backside.  Something I think has been on and off with modeling.  5h collapse of heights with a CCB?

Meh the back side looks like 2 hrs /2.5 hrs and maybe .25 of precip at most for Bos / N shore . Unless you can find me something more impressive , I see more on cape w more QPF  from 1 to 7pm but backside may not reach them to 3 or so . I dunno 

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3 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

The UKMET alone has been showing that for several runs now... in the same exact spot. It's kind of odd.

It probably has something to do with the phase up in ME, as everything consolidates up there.

Don't really care..all of my snow is in the initial push, anyway.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. 

separates teens and temps around 30

pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy 

btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out 

Subsidence would have to be decently north of that cf.

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3 km nam sets up coastal front from Kingston NH to Salem NH to about Tyngsboro at midnite -1 A.M. 

separates teens and temps around 30

pretty deep fetch of ENE winds to near 495 after midnite on nammy 

btv wrf is not as bullish on l.l warmth but 0z isn’t out 

I'm excited to be in NE MA for this. Too close to the ocean but might see some mid-level magic for a while before a flip to sleet. I just need to pace myself and stay up late enough to see some +SN.

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We have some experimental ensemble guidance (basically time lag the shit out of everything available in the short term) that shows an interesting story for PWM. It has a very high likelihood (~70%) for 12" of snow, but a low (~30%) likelihood for 16". 

I think that's a really nice forecast right now. I feel comfortable we hit a foot, less comfortable we hit that 18" top of the range on our website.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Trends for BOS are interesting. 

It doesn't change the high chances for 4", but the chances for 6 and 8" have been decreasing. 12" all but disappeared in the latest run.

Front ender looks good.  Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It should thump for a time. 

Given that this is a WAA regime on steroids, it should pound 1+/hr for a while in the good stuff.

Heading towards 12 years in Greenfield I have become very well acquainted with the nuances of SWFE type storms and needless to say I am very excited to watch this unfold. 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Front ender looks good.  Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon.

Definitely a short term threat there. It's all about the overlap between +SN and winds increasing.

Also a nice signal for a flash freeze in and around BOS too.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Front ender looks good.  Also, very dynamic day Sunday with a short term flash blizzard in the afternoon.

We pound for several hours and it will finally look like winter in Boston metro... but those higher totals > 8" are looking less likely. 

I had called 6-12 for Boston metro but barring a Messenger shuffle east (and this is a good synoptic setup for that), 4-8 looks more accurate from guidance tonight.

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