Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: 18z was juicier ... and 18 in SNH was always ummm ... bullish juicier here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This'll be a bit of a bust for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You further south than me but I highly doubt you or I get a above freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m thinking 3-6/4-7 IMBY. Same for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Already disgusted with this so-called winter next winter incoming 2019-2020. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This'll be a bit of a bust for northern areas. Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I don’t like to deviate too far from climo ratios until I see the 20:1 whites of its eyes. Yup. And I do think someone could see some high ratio snow in this, most likely under any meso-band that forms. That's when you can get into 20" out 1" of liquid. But you could also get 12" of just old fashioned storm snow and it's pretty much the same effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Already disgusted with this so-called winter next winter incoming 2019-2020. snow might be hard to come by in NS with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM is like 32F here for 8 hours Sunday AM. I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH How far is SNH away from ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's what I used for my forecast. 13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? The band location in NNE will be key. Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you. Other guidance though has it further north. But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely. Yeah, I'm thinking those ranges as well, Also i'm expecting some tics back SE (We hope) We're getting close on some of these runs to getting H85 into the +2 + 4c zone for a 3 or so hr period, So that would cut into some totals with sleet if its not at the height of the storm where we may be able to wash that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: snow might be hard to come by in NS with this storm Not just this storm but the next few at least. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: And considering it warms us to plain rain, the amounts are actually higher. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Yep, this would bust forecasts hard in S NH I ran a couple skew-t's for my hood and it showed what might be a flirtation with sleet, but it was only razor thin and only briefly. So much for all the excitement of the NAM runs last night. Hopefully the GFS and EC will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent. I give up Will people just not getting it.. keep fighting though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's a funny irony about this in that the low has finally agreed upon to not come on land anywhere yet the ptype transition it's penetrating farther north west every recycle. Stronger 850 winds out of the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NAM is like 32F here for 8 hours Sunday AM. I'll take the under. I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That map looks too low for S NH. AFN/ASH are all snow through 12z with over an inch of liquid equivalent. Looking at soundings, that'd be roughly 6 hours of sleet. Still gonna get a foot on that run given the snow-to-liquid ratio, but not sure we'll hit NWS forecast of 18" in this scenario. Probably wouldn't be a major bust then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And considering it warms us to plain rain, the amounts are actually higher. Get those genny's out. I wish I had one lol. I'll be at BDL for this though, working a double shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NAM is like 32F here for 8 hours Sunday AM. I'll take the under. Why don't you use the 3k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How far is SNH away from ZR Far. There could be some microscale flips to freezing rain, but serious threat to accumulate would be well south. It should be more sleet, unless a petty large late shifts in modeling occur in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll see Sleet bitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why don't you use the 3k? It's about the same. Looked at that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: I give up Will people just not getting it.. keep fighting though.. I mean, I'm not too worry about that run (and that run isn't even that bad). We'll still get plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Everything has trended warmer in the boundary layer. Even the RPM is bringing the surface 0c isotherm to Hartford for a while in the morning Sunday. Not sure if that's overdone but it is notable that everything has come north some this evening. Last night it was all south so you upped amounts lol if HFD is above 32 I will be 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Looking at soundings, that'd be roughly 6 hours of sleet. Still gonna get a foot on that run given the snow-to-liquid ratio, but not sure we'll hit NWS forecast of 18" in this scenario. Probably wouldn't be a major bust then. Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I honestly think Kevin's big ice call might be correct even here.. but we'll see I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I see no way out from about RI / Mass border on SSW line to DXR. I think Ginx, me, anybody up into Union to Putnam down to Ryan to Iceberg to Spanks to Hoth are in deep doo doo. Euro ain’t gonna be wrong this close in. It’s prep time Further south in CT, yeah maybe....for you though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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