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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


40/70 Benchmark
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51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not perfect considering the warm layer around H75, but this definitely doesn't suck either. We'd probably get some very good growth in the cloud tops and then some riming in the meh layer. There's good growth in the lower omega too.

I like the progs in Mass too. There's a brief period where many have sleet after falling through a +2C layer and then into -14C one.

tempa.png

 

That is insane.  That thermal gradient is crazy.  Worth saving that one to the weenie folder.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I'd rather have 9" of snow, then a ton of sleet...then 9" followed by a meteorological ego stroke amid P Sunny skies for having remained all snow.

I'm going for pure frozen LE in this pack given my bare ground status. I'll be totally content with 8" of snow followed by a scalping that gives another 3-4" of sleet. We can pile up the currier and ives fluffer nutters all late January and February, but I want a big time base so I don't see grass until at least april fools day.

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

For me   NAM  1.6" all snow  All snow surface temp 10F.   So I'll knock of 1/3 cause its the NAM  and it brings me to 1" qpf.   Ratio 15:1  thats  15".   

The snow is going to end here with temps near 0F.  BTV in the CPV funneling from the north may even be below zero while snowing.

This is a vastly overlooked aspect of this... how cold it will be while snowing.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The NAM has slowly been figuring it out over the past 24 hours.  Last night's 00z and 06z backed off quite a bit on QPF up north but the 12z/18z/00z have now been going in the right direction. 

A couple more runs and the QPF will match the EURO.

Yea but didn’t the euro blast a warn layer all the way into southern Vermont?  Btw I’m up in Killington this weekend so I have a rooting interest. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

12-15:1

Yeah that's what I used for my forecast.  13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? 

The band location in NNE will be key.  Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you.  Other guidance though has it further north.  But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely.

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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I am surprised that the EURO is giving me 1.9" of QPF so late in the game....

The trend has definitely been down over the last few runs. Pretty classic trend honestly, rushing out to big QPF then settling towards reality.

Will was banging 1-1.5” days ago, and that’s still the best forecast for all/mostly snow zones I think.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's what I used for my forecast.  13-15:1 and 0.7-1.0" QPF... 8-14"? 

The band location in NNE will be key.  Climo wise I do like Southern Adirondacks, through S/C VT and into the Lakes Region of NH and then IZG and you.  Other guidance though has it further north.  But since I do think the low will track a little further south than models show (not much, but a little) due to the depth of the low level cold...I think the former is more likely.

I don’t like to deviate too far from climo ratios until I see the 20:1 whites of its eyes.

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