HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm liking the 9-13, 3-5 in my p/c. I'll be relying on your reports from GC but Franklin Co is looking good for 12-15" and not too much taint. My neighbor is going to measure for me. I'll be the Newburyport reporter for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Those amounts would be a solid bust for a big chunk of GYX's forecast. That is a 10:1 ratio map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Talk dirty to us NH border dwellers. How do you feel about the N Coast? I'll be a mile from Plum Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Once again, BOX forgets that their western zone borders VT. Sigh. Overall...snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches appear reasonable south of the MA turnpike with 7 to 12 inches north of the Pike. The threat for 12 to 15 inches of snow will likely be confined to areas near the NH border. Based on these latest accumulations...have opted to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning north of the MA Turnpike. Where criteria is more marginal have opted to hold onto the Winter Storm Watch and defer to the next shift. When will you learn? Nobody knows about or cares about NW MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18z Euro looks another tick more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Southern stream stronger this run....thats a lot of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Its a couple tics amped from 12z, That's going to be warmer for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its a couple tics amped from 12z, That's going to be warmer for some. amplitude doesn't necessitate warmth though - ... just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Interesting model battle going on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 All 18Z's are amped so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: amplitude doesn't necessity warmth though - ... just sayn' This run got warmer aloft....we already know the sfc isn't gonna warm much except far SE and maybe south coast. That said, I'm still expecting it to overperform on the cold side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Monster Bombs on the long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12"? Some models have us in a subsidence zone, By the way, I'm riding out of Harrison tomorrow over to IZG and Bethal, And probably Coos Canyon. Along route 302? I’ve seen some of the trails/crossings thru that stretch. Also the crossing over moose pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Along route 302? I’ve seen some of the trails/crossings thru that stretch. Also the crossing over moose pond. Yes, I'm unloading at the end of Long Lake in Harrison, I will be heading over that way towards Stoneham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmj16725 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hopefully the 1.5"+ of non snow precip down this way is either overdone or of the non ZR variety. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, I'm unloading at the end of Long Lake in Harrison, I will be heading over that way towards Stoneham I recall riding on some trails up in the hills east of heald pond on the Lovell/stoneham line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yes, I'm unloading at the end of Long Lake in Harrison, I will be heading over that way towards StonehamTomorrow? I'm taking my wife to bridgton and up to AJs for lunch on the sledSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Euro actually gives me more snow ths run by virtue of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z Euro, Up the anti some.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 hours ago, Greg said: A classic arctic high penetrates all layers not just the top and BL but mid levels also so they are not easily scoured out. The key is really high position. The over the top and northeast look allows flow to be easterly into the mountains. That works twofold: one rising air into the mountains cools adiabatically, two pressure gradient is direct north to south. Northeast flow develops and feeds the low level cold (as can evaporational cooling). As long as the high stays in that position there is little mechanism to scour out low level cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Tomorrow? I'm taking my wife to bridgton and up to AJs for lunch on the sled Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Euro actually gives me more snow ths run by virtue of qpf. Yeah, these little tickles NW and big QPF #s make me glad I secured a plow guy for this storm. It will be worth the $35 to not come home to a 100' driveway a foot deep in man snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This run got warmer aloft....we already know the sfc isn't gonna warm much except far SE and maybe south coast. That said, I'm still expecting it to overperform on the cold side though. Let’s torch the literal heck outta the mid levels and ice up the forum me and blizz only ones clapping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Good trend if you like ice damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Yup.If u go to AJs maybe I'll see youSent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 hours ago, wxextreme said: GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH. I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches. I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end. I want to say something snarky, but we do. So does BOX. Since we started probabilistic snow we’ve documented this. My SOO’s gut check is: is there is any real chance that your forecast is too low? If you say no, then you have a high bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: If u go to AJs maybe I'll see you Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Yeah i'm not sure where were going once i'm up there, Going with a couple buddies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good trend if you like ice damage. We are in trouble dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Let’s torch the literal heck outta the mid levels and ice up the forum Maybe CT can pull it off but it will be really hard to get a huge ZR storm in our area. So much cold below the warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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