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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Alot of premature negativity in here

We haven't given guidance enough time to declare this a clear (or final) trend. Maybe it will be correct, but at the moment I haven't seen anything to drastically change forecasts.

Our overall gestalt independent of models: this is an impressive High, the arctic air is fresh, and conversely this is not a phased super charged negatively tilted system charging in. I would anticipate a scoot east more than a GFS-esque track over Boston.

I actually thought UK, which has a scoot east, was still decent for SNE.

Regarding what has caused the NW track shift on the 12z suite so far...? Unclear. I've looked at 0 hr (12z) on GFS/NAM and compared to same timepoint of previous runs, suspecting that the ingest of the shortwave in the West might have shifted... but really not anything too glaring. Maybe the shortwave has ticked further north tracking over Nevada / Colorado. Maybe enough for the downstream ticks. But all within noise, and absolutely can trend in either way in the next 36 hours.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/16/07 was a little different but it was the same idea with a stout arctic high. That one was actually just north of maine and slowly moving NE....this one is actually anchored better. The '07 storm though had the precip coming a bit more form the SSW and this one is more from the WSW. The forcing comes in at a bit of a different angle....the coastal front in this one will be pinned further SE due to the high position.

Great response and explanation.  Thanks!

Seems like most should do well despite ticks NW here and there on current guidance.

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28 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem.

GFS low cloud tool has clouds thinning during the evening (when noticeable effects start just after 10 pm) and even out of here near totality. At least there's hope for that.

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27 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

AND it's a super moon; AND it's a full eclipse. Lot's of twists and turns ahead, and likelihood for memorable mayhem.

Last full lunar here was spiked by cloud.  Unfortunately, I'd give it a 90%+ chance of happening again (though I'd take the extra snow.)
 

I agree on the discrepancy issue. GYX over predicts snow for southern NH especially in the area along the Merrimack Valley area in NE Mass.

Wait until tomorrow.  If the past is a predictor, the PM shift will probably knock totals back a few inches.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He is terrified of sleet I think....he's getting some sleet so he should just accept it. He will get plenty of snow before that though,.

Especially where he lives.  Look at it from my perspective.  This is going be be a classic 80s shitshow here with everything except the kitchen sink thrown in.  Won't see me complaining about where the rain/sleet/snow line sets up.

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55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He made one of the more uneducated posts I have seen in a while and thats saying something , dismissal of 1040 high lol geezus 

Pedestrian

53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... 

how's that for clearing things up... 

 

And if goes the wrong way, I'll go 75% head for the ledge.

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20 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

The fact that you're 38/35 right now doesn't mean much when it starts TOMORROW night. 

You barely sniff 30F tomorrow for the high.

I live 7mi from the Canal. The geography of this general area doesnt support sleet or freezing rain. The track of this system will only support a short period of snow. I dont see any guidance suggesting this system has a chance of staying east of the canal. It is a broad area of LP, almost an open wave, and positive tilt trough. There wont be a tight defined center. This system will like pass directly over me. I will experience a temp spike. I will prob be in the 40s and Scott will be sitting at heavy snow at 31 degrees.

Past swfe have cause temp spike to 50-54 for my geographical area.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

The board should just stop posting for the next 30 minutes or so.  

Wait till ECMWF is out to 84 hours then open it back up for posting.  The head fakes should be great with people losing their sh*t with every 15 mile shift in the southern plains and Ohio Valley.

There are some that should not try to do analysis because it become very confusing for some.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Agreed 100%.  Expect colder low levels than modeled and it's been the same forecast for 5 days.  

But those 20 mile wobbles matter...but leave that for the HRRR time.

Because the biggest transition zone is in SNE, the wobbles are perceived to be much larger than they actually are....so it creates a lot of hand wringing over the model outputs.

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