moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey @Zeus It looks like a bird as well as a banana. As long as it brings snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1037 is not weak. For peak winter climo when you sometimes see 1050+ highs, 1037 is rather tame. It would also help if it were located further SW. No wonder models are trending NW. Add a little phasing to the system and ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Zeus said: Oh, I done been knew bout this. I've been restrained; usually I salivate all over a banana like that when I see one, but I've been coy with this one. Honestly, Sunday just kinda ~feels~ like an ugly mess for my neck of the woods. I have to agree but think sleet because of the Banana, if it wasn't there it would be our typical SWFE 3 inches to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 29 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like the GFS gets the sfc warm front up to the Pike. That's where the thermal gradient exists right behind the streamline convergence. North of there there's a large zone that gets up to MHT that is in the low 30s. My guess is this is the model thinking there's ZR and it's trying to latent heat the area to freezing. Then you get another sharp temperature gradient where you go from ZR to IP. Since there's no sfc latent heating with IP you get back into the deep cold. The GFS overdoes thermals and is definitely underestimating CAD so you can almost surely push that IP line further south and the actual warm sector from the Pike to near the south coast. And the further south that IP and SN make it the colder the air you can advect into the ZR zone to offset latent heating. tl;dr version...toss the GFS sfc params Unfortunately what is good for the Goose is not for the Gander. I was starting to get worried about the cutting of qpf up here and being too far north. With the northward shift of the models comes better qpf chances but introduces warm air down south. I think the CAD will overperform in SNE at the surface so I'd push those GFS 2m temps further southward than what is shown but the midlevel warmth (taken that one run) would introduce more sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def northwest of 00z...it is matching the trend of the other globals. Painful. Almost as painful as the arctic high conversation in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is def northwest of 00z...it is matching the trend of the other globals. Yeah, but it shunts the surface low east ala NAM. Nothing like the GFS running from NYC to BOS to the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're saying precisely the opposite of what is indicated from all available guidance... I suspect you're focused on the storm positioning/attributes in making this assessment, which probably are in error ...least that's the logical recourse to figure out what would motivate this statement of yours, when there is indication of that withing available guidance spectrum. Yes Tip. Again just disecting the GFS not a forecast, just look at what that specific models was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Yeah, but it shunts the surface low east ala NAM. Nothing like the GFS running from NYC to BOS to the GOM. Yeah it def looks a bit more realistic than the GFS/GGEM on the sfc plot (esp GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Admittedly, I'm going to be disappointed if I ping during this. Might not get the 18" GYX is calling for, but pinging would be a bigger let down. Still expecting arctic high to do its thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: Yes Tip. Again just disecting the GFS not a forecast, just look at what that specific models was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, RDRY said: The position and strength do look classic. But - maybe this is a complete misinterpretation on my part - the isobars around the high do not look classic. They aren't curved. It looks like just a fast, flat flow of Arctic air, which may explain why many of the models are forcing the system so far north, as the high is not really pressing south. If anything, it's giving up a little ground. If you look at the GFS it certainly has the high moving to the N/NE. Perhaps that is why the solution shows the low passing by in the manner depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 My concern is not the lower atmosphere its the upper. If we go +8 , gonna get fugly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: For peak winter climo when you sometimes see 1050+ highs, 1037 is rather tame. It would also help if it were located further SW. No wonder models are trending NW. Add a little phasing to the system and ouch. 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey @Zeus Hopefully his next graphic will illustrate the classic "Scooter sh*t streak". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. He made one of the more uneducated posts I have seen in a while and thats saying something , dismissal of 1040 high lol geezus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Admittedly, I'm going to be disappointed if I ping during this. Might not get the 18" GYX is calling for, but pinging would be a bigger let down. Still expecting arctic high to do its thing. Even staying all-snow here, I'm having a tough time seeing us matching 16-18" forecast from GYX. I'm comfortable with my 12-18" call for my town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoth said: 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. Still a bit ignorant of NE climatology, but I bet we'd be talking about the possibility of diamond dust as far south as Boston if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... how's that for clearing things up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, WxBlue said: Still a bit ignorant of NE climatology, but I bet we'd be talking about the possibility of diamond dust as far south as Boston if that's the case. Oh almost certainly. We had that a few times in Feb '15 I believe, and I remember seeing it in Jan '04 up in VT during the insane cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Unfortunately what is good for the Goose is not for the Gander. I was starting to get worried about the cutting of qpf up here and being too far north. With the northward shift of the models comes better qpf chances but introduces warm air down south. I think the CAD will overperform in SNE at the surface so I'd push those GFS 2m temps further southward than what is shown but the midlevel warmth (taken that one run) would introduce more sleet or freezing rain. If you get extreme fronto in that air mass you can enjoy 20 inches. Worrying about QPF is something I wish I was doing right now, minimum foot for you. Great spot in this one Gene, your and Brians Jeff area has been my jackpot area for a week straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 so all METS tell me this is a classic artic high others disagree.. hmm. who to believe? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Predict a 50/50 chance the Euro comes in perfect for snow ... how's that for clearing things up... Haha....I'm guessing it will tick north because all the other globals did and the forum will become temporarily unreadable with people talking about rainstorms inland....esp when it tries to push 40F into Kevin's fanny. Then 00z will start the "messenger shuffle" and everyone will act surprised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: 1050+ highs in this neck of the woods are exceedingly rare. Maybe crossing the border in ND, but not often around here. Well the bigger issue is the storm track itself. A 1030s high would be fine for a Miller A/B. And of course it'll work out okay for CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Admittedly, I'm going to be disappointed if I ping during this. Might not get the 18" GYX is calling for, but pinging would be a bigger let down. Still expecting arctic high to do its thing. I'm prepared to be disappointed. Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Well the bigger issue is the storm track itself. A 1030s high would be fine for a Miller A/B. And of course it'll work out just fine for CNE. If you're looking for an all snow event sure, but surface cold is going to be pretty tenacious. Ice ice baby, at least here in the CTRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxextreme Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Even staying all-snow here, I'm having a tough time seeing us matching 16-18" forecast from GYX. I'm comfortable with my 12-18" call for my town. GYX tends to over predict, especially in Southern NH. I live in Northern MA and the general discrepancy between BOX and GYX (even though I am walking distance from the NH boarder) can be about 2-4 inches. I'd say you would be safe with your call, but probably toward the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oh almost certainly. We had that a few times in Feb '15 I believe, and I remember seeing it in Jan '04 up in VT during the insane cold outbreak. Yep. To me, anything above 1030 mb is a strong high pressure. 1050+ mb is pretty rare anywhere in the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ice is the worst form of precipitation for man or beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: so all METS tell me this is a classic artic high others disagree.. hmm. who to believe? It’s not going to happen, esp inland. I hope to sit back and laugh at the 50s like Ursula from The Little Mermaid as I look out at a snowy landscape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: If you're looking for an all snow event sure, but surface cold is going to be pretty tenacious. Ice ice baby, at least here in the CTRV. Good luck and if for some reason it doesn't work out, the pattern a week from now looks loaded with potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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