Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Can we just stop posting those dumb TT snow maps that say "includes sleet" in accumulations. Use some other site like Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Will be back down to four posters posting. Uh oh, euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z GGEM went NW as well from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JC-CT said: Uh oh, euro... Never discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS please! As in both WTF, but I'll gladly take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Surface or not, the NW ticks are concerning if you like snow. Unless you live up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 At this rate it looks like the warm air may win out verses Artic air. Pretty much an1980's winter. Favorable tracks but poor thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Surface or not, the NW ticks are concerning if you like snow. Unless you live up north. I wish i wouldn't have jinxed it for you guys when i mentioned get this as far SE last night so you can take a couple of NW tics inside 24 hours or so, But this was your fear all along.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'll be in Thornton this weekend. Pretty sure even with a track NYC to BOS is safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks more and more likely the Gfs was right. Other models are showing similar thermal profiles. Could be a CNE exclusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: At this rate it looks like the warm air may win out verses Artic air. Pretty much an1980's winter. Favorable tracks but poor thermals. We'll see how it pans out, but this has been my concern for over a week. This winter has been a NNE winter and I believe there is a trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still very tough to bet against Harvey. Even last night he wasn't backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: At this rate it looks like the warm air may win out verses Artic air. Pretty much an1980's winter. Favorable tracks but poor thermals. Should have fired up the iroc-z and put on my bucs... f this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks more and more likely the Gfs was right. Other models are showing similar thermal profiles. Could be a CNE exclusive. It won’t be right in the low levels. I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 These melts are based on the gfs right? Just want to make sure we are following. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The problem is it's a very fleeting Artic air mass. Not classic or favorable where it's strong and keeps the storm from turning due northeast instead of keeping it on a east/northeasterly track instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Save a horse. Wait for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I hope it happens... crickets in here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 its over 50's and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I've been referring to the GFS, but it's lately seeming to get a lot of support. Seems like NAM/Harvey vs the rest. The track is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, MarkO said: Still very tough to bet against Harvey. Even last night he wasn't backing down. I'm with him...even these NW models are still giving 6-8" for the pike. But the synoptic setup has me leaning that the WAA is going to have to fight pretty hard to eventually make progress, so I'm hedging a bit colder on the actual outcome and it seems like Harvey is too. We'll probably get the messenger shuffle inside 24 hours too givne this is not a phased system with an arctic airmass to the north of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won’t be right in the low levels. I guarantee it. Well, the surface low does need to track south of us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 i wait for the EURO, the GFS track does not make sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The real problem is the southern stream s/w is more amped which is allowing it to track a little further NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 back to a rain/CFP event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Again...toss the surface crap aside... But when talking about a battle wrt midlevels and synoptics, do you want the euro on your side or the NCEP duo? It's hard to toss the euro when it is steadfast for more than one run...especially with how the GFS is performing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm with him...even these NW models are still giving 6-8" for the pike. But the synoptic setup has me leaning that the WAA is going to have to fight pretty hard to eventually make progress, so I'm hedging a bit colder on the actual outcome and it seems like Harvey is too. We'll probably get the messenger shuffle inside 24 hours too givne this is not a phased system with an arctic airmass to the north of it. how similar is this to the storm in November, I seem to remember the models doing this as well...I ended up with 8 inches in that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: The real problem is the southern stream s/w is more amped which is allowing it to track a little further NW. Latent heat release pumping up heights ahead of storm. Always a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FWIW, the GFS is still ~5" of snow in S CT before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Well, the surface low does need to track south of us, right? There's basically no chance it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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