moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have gone colder with snow amounts, a further south large area of a foot or more. Downeast ME with the highest amounts of 17-24"+. BOS could see around 12-16", just south of the city could see around 8-12" while Upper Cape Cod region sees 8-12" while the outer Cape sees 6-8" and CHH sees 3-6" and ACK sees 1-3". MVY sees about 10". I am going with the colder scenario. Either way, the Cape and Islands see some sleet and freezing and a few hours of plain rain before the flash freeze and a turn to snow and maybe additional moderate amounts from OES as the NAM shows. I think the SREFs also show the OES impact. 10" for MVY?????? Good luck with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low Jeremy always is the more conservative met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Seems to me this whole situation has been providing a unique, coherent testing opportunity for all guidance types - cold low level layer S.A.T. so to speak. I mean, at the end of the day ... y'all want snow or bust. Right. We know... But my own consternation ... well, lack therein actually, I don't really care about ptype. I'm really more concerned with handling the llvs/BL resistance for this evolution/focus. I almost don't care to argue whether 800 mb level or whatever elevates a warm layer. It simply ain't gettin' above 32 F anywhere in this at the surface, not with that degree of in situ polar-arctic high. Which is not only armed quintessentially perfectly nodal in western Quebec, but clearly dammed physically into the climo resistance patterning while flat wave deep layer kinematics attemps to erode... That's not arriving while this is playing out ... it's not leaving either. Take half the pages of posting consternation of this thread, and erase them... useless. It's there, it's perpetually feeding in positive-statically stable layer underneath. Any llv frontal positions, as well, most likely this whole thing, are going to be forced south of that resistance and it is simply not even eligible to enter the conference hall where any debate quorum is taking place. Not qualified - As for ptype, it was always a matter of whether that is snow, or snow mixed with snow that's mixed with snow-IP mix, or snow mixed with snow-IP mix, or snow-IP mix, or IP mixed with some snow... or IP with one or two mangled bow-tie pasta noodles, ... or IP, or IP mixed with ZR ... or ZR with a few pellets mixed in, or ZR... but it ain't just rainin' when all that said resistance is also nascent arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wow, the 3km NAM is cold. 850s only creep above 0c about 15mi N of the south coast. Did you see what it did with temps aloft? 850mb is brick cold. Pretty insane. Not even close to sleeting. Ice cold at 950mb too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wow, the 3km NAM is cold. 850s only creep above 0c about 15mi N of the south coast. yeah...it was much more in line with the 12km at 6z...they were quite a bit different last night at 0z, with the 3km being rather toasty. I will say NAM has certainly backed off the prolific fzra totals it was spitting out for CT yesterday. Seems to be a combo of less QPF and an overall colder trend. 6z even kept GON mostly below freezing. Hoping that holds here at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3KM NAM is northeast winds throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4-8” seems reasonable for BOS. Closer to 8” out by Brookline. 5-6” at Logan. Heck, the observer might only measure 1.9” or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: If you believe some of these models, that's a good range. I think it's either 4-8" or 6-12" i'm feeling pretty optimistic about this....i think we could see 10 maybe 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low NECN says a foot and sleet storm south to near the Cape, no mention of freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: NECN says a foot I need to see 12z guidance before going all in on a foot plus for BOS just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Did you see what it did with temps aloft? 850mb is brick cold. Pretty insane. Not even close to sleeting. Ice cold at 950mb too Yeah, it's an insane gradient. There is about a 10-12C difference at 850mb between BOS and GHG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Man the 6z NAM and RGEM couldn't be more different lol. Model battle is fascinating. The RGEM ticked north again from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, it's an insane gradient. There is about a 10-12C difference at 850mb between BOS and GHG The ingredient is over 28C between 100 miles of distance on the NAM at 6z run 850mb temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM looks a little more amped.. maybe a hair north this run but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I need to see 12z guidance before going all in on a foot plus for BOS just yet But you're a-ok with 10" at MVY 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: But you're a-ok with 10" at MVY It is possible, but I think the south trend remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Man the 6z NAM and RGEM couldn't be more different lol. Model battle is fascinating. The RGEM ticked north again from 00z. Ain't nobody gonna talk about the RGEM in SNE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, I just scrolled through the models. You would think this storm is 4 days out with the range of solutions presented. Going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. My gut says 4-8" for Hartford area before a sleetfest. Still gonna fill up my gas containers for the generator in case, though. Eager for Ryan to weigh in on the CT valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm hoping the 6Z models are as far north as this is going to get. Hope they start to back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Some of that might have been differing attitudes by school admin folks, and less litigation threat. From when our older child entered kindergarten in 1977, thru 1985 when we moved south, he lost 1.5 days total to weather - in Fort Kent, where we had a 130"/year average snowfall. GYX 90/50/10% snowfall tool upped by 3-4" compared to yesterday afternoon, with everybody's "most likely" now at 17 or 18. Works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks a little more amped.. maybe a hair north this run but we will see I don't know where you are getting that idea, it looks weaker and further south honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The southern low is the one to watch, becomes dominant over MS Valley in 24 hours and tracks to the Delmarva Peninsula and then off the ACK area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I don't know where you are getting that idea, it looks weaker and further south honestly. it's going to be slightly north based on what I see.. that does not mean that thermals won't improve further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said: Wow, I just scrolled through the models. You would think this storm is 4 days out with the range of solutions presented. Going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. My gut says 4-8" for Hartford area before a sleetfest. Still gonna fill up my gas containers for the generator in case, though. Eager for Ryan to weigh in on the CT valley area. That’s sort of what I’m thinking now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it's going to be slightly north based on what I see.. that does not mean that thermals won't improve further Remember it is the southern low we need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We will see which models will be kept and tossed at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM looks like its going to be a little north of its 6Z but hopefully wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Remember it is the southern low we need to watch. yes, i know .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: We will see which models will be kept and tossed at 12z today. It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: NAM going to be a little north of its 6Z. make sure your looking at the correct low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now