SJonesWX Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think Chicago could see 12"+ from this storm. do you think anyone in the NE forum gives a crap what you think Chicago will get? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will def be some ZR but I seems that the residence time and total QPF after the flip is going to be short of big time numbers. There's def still a chance in a small zone down in S CT somewhere though. Can't totally ignore it. I still think in the end, it will end up a bit sleetier than the euro shows. I will need you to talk me off the ledge tomorrow. Wife is in Virginia for the weekend and an ice storm with power loss is the last thing I need now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is one the warmer side of guidance now, even at the surface. It brings the 32F line into LWM and 495 area. Have a hard time believing that. Things that you go hmm. NAM cold Euro warm, alternate universe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like a couple hours of 2-3C at 850 here, though CMC just brought it up to 0. Snow and sleet. Those little pellets don't accumulate on power lines and trees but they are slippery as all get out under foot. Could see freezing fog adding some rime to exposed surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro gonna bust on this. I’d bet 6z starts it back colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Things that you go hmm. NAM cold Euro warm, alternate universe Its because this is not a classic SWFE. When it is they usually agree so safe to say onne of them is definitely wrong. Should find out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6z nam came north from it’s drunk 0z run but it looks about right with the thermals. Surface never gets above freezing unless your immediate se coast from a GON to SCOTR line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro gonna bust on this. I’d bet 6z starts it back colder Nammy all the way on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Things that you go hmm. NAM cold Euro warm, alternate universe Speaking of alternate universe, Upton is going with NAM thermal profiles it looks like, probably a smart move by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Looks like a couple hours of 2-3C at 850 here, though CMC just brought it up to 0. Snow and sleet. Those little pellets don't accumulate on power lines and trees but they are slippery as all get out under foot. Could see freezing fog adding some rime to exposed surfaces. A crust of sleet over snow is great for preserving snow pack. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will need you to talk me off the ledge tomorrow. Wife is in Virginia for the weekend and an ice storm with power loss is the last thing I need now. Lol What concerns me is the threat of decent icing has been there since Sat, maybe the areas have shifted but I still think the threat has to be considered. As you know most people are not prepared for a power loss especially with the cold coming Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snugharbor Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It helps for those of us who remember the 80s and early 90s to know whats going to happen with a storm like this lol. Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will need you to talk me off the ledge tomorrow. Wife is in Virginia for the weekend and an ice storm with power loss is the last thing I need now. Lol You're a man's man, you can handle it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! Here we had no double digit storms between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993 (the superstorm, which naturally changed to rain after a foot fell here, so really it was like Feb 1983 to Jan 1996 with no double digit pure snowstorms.) We repeated that with no double digit snowstorms after the great 1995-96 winter until the Millenium storm in Dec 2000. But the funny thing was that period felt entirely different because we at least had the great 1993-94 and all time 1995-96 winters under our belts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! Long Island was the same way. You couldn’t buy a sizeable snowfall. Meanwhile, 20 miles north of the city it was winter wonderland in perpetuity. So frustrating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Interesting to note the meso models are definitely much colder here in the edge of their range. We've had a lot of conversation about how globals were handling push of warm air against arctic air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RPM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro gonna bust on this. I’d bet 6z starts it back colder 6z Euro not backing down. Going to be an interesting battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snugharbor said: Some people dont believe me but I had literally 1 snow day going to school in Providence from grade 7 to graduating HS (87-93). Sure there was a weekend storm here and there, and it snowed more up in Greenville where we lived, but the pattern was definitely warm and often wet. It all changed once I went to college (it was a pounding for several years in the mid 90s) but when you are a kid you dont tend to misremember not having snow days! The fact that you can remember that is crazy as is that situation is sad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I have gone colder with snow amounts, a further south large area of a foot or more. Downeast ME with the highest amounts of 17-24"+. BOS could see around 12-16", just south of the city could see around 8-12" while Upper Cape Cod region sees 8-12" while the outer Cape sees 6-8" and CHH sees 3-6" and ACK sees 1-3". MVY sees about 10". I am going with the colder scenario. Either way, the Cape and Islands see some sleet and freezing and a few hours of plain rain before the flash freeze and a turn to snow and maybe additional moderate amounts from OES as the NAM shows. I think the SREFs also show the OES impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: WHDH 4-8 in boston? a little low If you believe some of these models, that's a good range. I think it's either 4-8" or 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Even the warmer GFS had 1,6 for the MEX numbers for CHH, 1 for SAT and 6 for MON, the guidance that Jerry goes by. those are snowfall numbers, 12z could be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: If you believe some of these models, that's a good range. I think it's either 4-8" or 6-12" I think 6-12" covers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Saw something really cool driving on I95 in Bridgeport a little while ago. There is a power station on the south side of the highway - left side as driving south - and the steam coming out was doing a spiral as it elevated through the atmosphere. First it was going right to left (NW>SE) it spiraled up and clockwise and probably 100 feet above the top of the stack it was going SE to NW. Really cool to see. Something that might be cool to visualize as we talk up this cold lower layer for this next storm. It's really cool to see visually what we talk about vertically in the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, the 3km NAM is cold. 850s only creep above 0c about 15mi N of the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I have gone colder with snow amounts, a further south large area of a foot or more. Downeast ME with the highest amounts of 17-24"+. BOS could see around 12-16", just south of the city could see around 8-12" while Upper Cape Cod region sees 8-12" while the outer Cape sees 6-8" and CHH sees 3-6" and ACK sees 1-3". MVY sees about 10". I am going with the colder scenario. Either way, the Cape and Islands see some sleet and freezing and a few hours of plain rain before the flash freeze and a turn to snow and maybe additional moderate amounts from OES as the NAM shows. I think the SREFs also show the OES impact. Noone on the cape will see over 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think 6-12" covers it. Gotta always try to put the number you think will verify somewhere in the middle of the range. i.e. 6-12" I'm really thinking somewhere around ~9" 4-8" I'm really thinking somewhere around ~6" 3-6" I'm really thinking 4 or 5 inches Personally I think the BOS number is between 6-9". Perhaps I should be saying 6-10". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's funny, I respect the warm push, but like the tracks closer to NAM type guidance. If that makes any sense. I could see this kissing the islands and near CHH. For some reason I've felt the same. These non-phased SWFE storms seem to favor the NAM thermal profiles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 BTV WRF seems like the NAM too. Tickles near CHH, but rather chilly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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