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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You may actually hit for cycle on ptypes. Start as snow, to mix, to rain. Then flip back to a mix and end as snow as the cold tuck undercuts the warmth aloft.

This whole winter has been like nostalgia for the 80s, because almost every big event (outside of April 1982 and February 1983) that happened here in the 80s was like this.

 

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4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

This was only an hour ago.  They just lowered it again at 5:10!  Wish they’d get their act together......

How about we be happy with 12-20"?

It was a cosmetic update for all intents are purposes to get rid of widespread 20:1 snowfall during the peak of the QPF.

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who knows where . I just meant a lot of sleet and zr for a whole bunch of people. Sleet is also an icestorm 

Kev as you probably know sleet gets measured as snow (at lower ratios, like 2:1).  Frozen precip totals (what we call "snow totals") are actually a measurement of both snow and sleet added together.  Freezing rain (glaze) gets measured and put in the books as just rain and only added to the liquid precip totals, not the frozen ones.

 

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4 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

This was only an hour ago.  They just lowered it again at 5:10!  Wish they’d get their act together......

More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time.  18 vs 20", not that big of a deal.  My expectations are 14/15" anyways.

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1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Well, you know I wouldn’t have huffed and puffed had it gone up more!  Just a little grouchy....  I’m good!  ^_^

Also we were a little too high I think vs BOX to our south. Would prefer to match a little closer at this range and deviate as we get to go time when trends become more apparent.

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2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

More important to get the best info out there vs inflate expectations only to crash them back to reality just before (or during) go time.  18 vs 20", not that big of a deal.  My expectations are 14/15" anyways.

Been expecting 14” here for quite some time, then they blast it up to 22 and then dropped it a short time later.  I was NOT following my own rule of keeping it in a range.  Maybe I can blame it on lack of coffee, not the fine folks in Gray.

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I always thought that the NAM is usually the model that sniffs out the mid level warmth that often results in pingers making it farther north. And now it keeps trending south as several of the other models bring the warmth further north. I know it’s usually good at recognizing low level cold being a meso and all. Interesting last hour model battle.


.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Euro nearly identical .  If anything a few miles south with h85

HIRES NAM shows throughout the storm a northeasterly surface wind over the Cape, means freezing rain and sleet is a great possibility over rain falling, I think we see 6"+ total from the storm, I think its a mistake for the NWS not to bring us into a winter storm warning

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