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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Talk about a useless model.  They deep-sixed the NOGAPS for it, but it hasn't been much of an improvement.  If they are looking for ways to save money in DC, one way would be to eliminate this model.

Honestly bro I think navgem is a better model than the gfs and Canadian put together 

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Harv’s map tonight looks like NWS Box original map before they reduced amounts earlier Thursday...
we are getting a wiper effect chasing models every 12 hrs

See no reason at the moment to change my opening 6-12 for Boston metro... if the 0z southeast trends hold, might need to adjust higher

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12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Harv’s map tonight looks like NWS Box original map before they reduced amounts earlier Thursday...
we are getting a wiper effect chasing models every 12 hrs

See no reason at the moment to change my opening 6-12 for Boston metro... if the 0z southeast trends hold, might need to adjust higher

Stand pat bro.....

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22 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Harv’s map tonight looks like NWS Box original map before they reduced amounts earlier Thursday...
we are getting a wiper effect chasing models every 12 hrs

See no reason at the moment to change my opening 6-12 for Boston metro... if the 0z southeast trends hold, might need to adjust higher

I hate these long event horizon events that have, in some cases, 10 separate snowfall forecasts before a flake falls. 

Sometimes it feels like we change amounts just to change amounts. Sometimes we jump on every new model run. But mostly I just wish we treated snowfall more like climatology with temps. If models spit out record temps on day 7, we typically don't put it in the forecast. We factor climo and probabilities in. Snowfall we just lurch with each new piece of guidance. Two foot storms are rare, so maybe we don't put that in the grids on day 4 or 5, and start conservatively and adjust up. 

We've been pretty much 12-16" from the jump, and I think that's a fine place to be. We could tweak down if things slip a little, or adjust up if it continues to be juicy, without looking like a leap either way. Start high and there's nowhere to go but down (despite what some posters think). 

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17 hours ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Looks like they lined it up with Albany and Grey a little more?

To clarify what was going on with snow maps this morning for everyone:

We had this "appetizer" that occupied all the local WFOs Storm Total Snow grid. We decided the weekend storm was a bigger deal, and watch text would show up on all our winter pages anyway so it could be confusing having a Sunday watch and Friday snow map. So we ran the Storm Total Snow grids for the weekend storm, but then had to decide where to cut them off. WPC only had grids for probabilities out to 12z Sunday, so I think BOX originally ended their Storm Total Snow grid at that time to make the probabilities make sense. The problem is it wasn't truly storm total amounts, so we eventually all decided to damn the probabilities and make the map say what we thought would happen.

Turns out some were higher than others. :o

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So the 12z ensemble sensitivity was mainly in the wave coming out of the Arctic. Lower heights there across western Canada was matched with a farther north low track. Makes sense that a deeper northern stream could lead to more downstream phasing.

Well the 00z raobs show that the 12z Euro and 00z GFS were both too low with heights across western Canada. That argues for a southern low track.

And I wouldn't be shocked the 00z Euro ticked in that direction based on it's 12z hour 12 forecast vs verification.

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13 hours ago, WxBlue said:

It's a screenshot of a video so the quality is trashy, but the hype from Weather Channel is insane. Where are they finding 3+ feet of snow?? Please don't tell me they're using Kuchera ratio...

 

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

What is that? a Euro or GFS Kuchie verbatim?

I mean that was a pretty irresponsible forecast from TWC. The PWM storm of record is a hair over 30", yet they go with 3' at like 84 hours lead time.  Rip and read.

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