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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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The surface probably was the least questionable. But these little subtle shifts, elongations, what have you...mean a huge difference in the mid levels. Having a good high anchored north helps get that warmer air to hit a brick wall below 850. But it’s above that where it matters. The more sheared srn vort and the PV pressing south is enough to keep the low from going into SNE on the NAM and gfs anyways. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The surface probably was the least questionable. But these little subtle shifts, elongations, what have you...mean a huge difference in the mid levels. Having a good high anchored north helps get that warmer air to hit a brick wall below 850. But it’s above that where it matters. The more sheared srn vort and the PV pressing south is enough to keep the low from going into SNE on the NAM and gfs anyways. 

The mid level change at h85 especially was remarkable on both the NAM and GFS. That's the issue really. 

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1 minute ago, ajisai said:

What was Jan 94 like? I was a wee lad down in Texas at the time.

It was mostly snow and sleet in SNE.  Down here it was all sleet and major FZRA.  System was more organized and longer duration like February 07.  This is more just a strong southwest flow event.  I don’t think there will be a big corridor with major sleet in this.  I’m thinking there is an area that gets mostly snow, another that gets snow to brief sleet then relatively significant freezing rain and an area south of that which just goes snow-rain 

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