A Moonlit Sky Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Dumb question, but how are you all getting the expected snowfall maps for the weekend storm from NWS? I can only see the maps for tonight's deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually buckin' for a NAM like solution myself... I don't really care for either losing power, missing the Patriots party I'm going to... or, 20" of snow ... none of that really matters to me. Far as I'm concerned, lets lop another 1/3 of QPF and make this an official pedestrian open wave quick hitter... Me too. Hate all this "weather" stuff. Wait, where am i? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Greg said: Right now looking at all the tracks, the models besides the NAVGEM caught up. Only little shifts and glitches in differences here and there now on Tropical Tidbits. I think midnight models will just about seal the deal other than any unusual occurrences/changes. We haven't even got into the mesoscale wheelhouse yet, or used the rgem once, so this is not true. Not to mention nowcasting during the actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah I'd honestly rather not lose power. Seems a little gusty on the backend, which makes a big difference when there is FZRN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 57 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We haven't even got into the mesoscale wheelhouse yet, or used the rgem once, so this is not true. Not to mention nowcasting during the actual storm. What I'm getting at is the track of the Low is pretty solid. The goalpost shouldn't move in big swings. Maybe 50 mile glitches and wobbles but big swings are pretty much done. Outside any unusual 500 millibar changes of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: Crazy how uniform all the models are up here. Every one is 1.0-1.3" QPF here, even the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 44 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: BOX took snow totals down Their first map was patently dumb....not sure what was up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18z NAM seems to be keying on a midlevel frontogenesis band at 700 mb that runs from around BGM, GFL, RUT, LEB, to 1P1 give or take. This could very well be a high ratio fluff that adds up big time as the lift will be in the DGZ. You can see a secondary QPF max in this swath. Something to watch. Hopefully I can avoid pingers here, but it's going to be close the way it looks now . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Crazy how uniform all the models are up here. Every one is 1.0-1.3" QPF here, even the NAM. GFL has been a hot spot on multiple models 1.7 with ratios 15 to 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, Greg said: This makes sense....9-12" of snow, then maybe some pellets. But the 18" of snow BEFORE .5" of ice was absolutely silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: But the 18" of snow BEFORE .5" of ice was absolutely silly. I never bought into the 18" solutions. I always thought they were over done based on the track and speed of this. The 8"-12" seems much more reasonable. I still hold out some hope for the 10"-14" but that's only if everything in the end breaks right for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Greg said: What I'm getting at is the track of the Low is pretty solid. The goalpost shouldn't move in big swings. Maybe 30-50 mile glitches and wobbles but big swings are pretty much done. Outside any unusual 500 millibar changes of course. 30-50 mile wobbles to the south could mean 12" instead of 6" for places like BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Crazy how uniform all the models are up here. Every one is 1.0-1.3" QPF here, even the NAM. I was just going to say that. It seems like the models have been remarkably consistent for our area from the time they first started spitting out clown maps for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 43 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 30-50 mile wobbles to the south could mean 12" instead of 6" for places like BOS. This is very true. I agree and you'll hear no argument from me, that's a promise. It's the big 75-100 mile swings for us that I believe are pretty much done however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Their first map was patently dumb....not sure what was up with that. what did it have a foot in hartford and 2 feet for HippyV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm actually buckin' for a NAM like solution myself... I don't really care for either losing power, missing the Patriots party I'm going to... or, 20" of snow ... none of that really matters to me. Far as I'm concerned, lets lop another 1/3 of QPF and make this an official pedestrian open wave quick hitter... I'm not saying its going to happen, but I think your correction vector here is a snowy one. I don't see a lot of margin for error on the less impactful end of the spectrum (unless anyone was expecting 18" lol)...sure, it may bump north a bit, but it won't be major...my largest uncertainty stems from a more proficient interaction with the northern stream at the last moment.. Don't sleep on a blizzard just yet, but plan on most amounts being generally under 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said: 18z NAM seems to be keying on a midlevel frontogenesis band at 700 mb that runs from around BGM, GFL, RUT, LEB, to 1P1 give or take. This could very well be a high ratio fluff that adds up big time as the lift will be in the DGZ. You can see a secondary QPF max in this swath. Something to watch. Hopefully I can avoid pingers here, but it's going to be close the way it looks now . how much otg now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Greg said: I never bought into the 18" solutions. I always thought they were over done based on the track and speed of this. The 8"-12" seems much more reasonable. I still hold out some hope for the 10"-14" but that's only if everything in the end breaks right for us. Still like my first call right about now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: what did it have a foot in hartford and 2 feet for HippyV? Yea..18-24". Had me with like 12-18". I'm not sure how they couldn't have anticipated this QPF chop if a joe-$hit-the-rag man like me and you could. I mentioned a couple of days ago that this reminded me of the early Feb 2011, and 2009 events.....SWFE that people humped mid range guidance and expected 18-24". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS coming in a tick colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like a slide east of the GFS. Seems colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is shunting a tic east... should give a colder solution I think we are approaching some semblance of consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 gfs finally catches a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 There are still small changes. Mostly model noise. GFS had been one of the warmer models though so a small tick southeast gets it closer to others. Im actually kind of surprised how small the shifts have been today given we're still like 60-72 hours out when the day began. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS being colder and more east gives me more confidence that euro and ukmet are near the real solution. Also I honestly think icon is a better model than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That was not a very big change from the 12z run at all actually, A couple tics east and another qpf trim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Ran the Genny, snowblower. Cut down a small damaged tree. Go time for full prep tomorrow Gas food cash just in case. Don't forget the chain and padlock for the genny...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also, snow ends in SNE during the mid to late afternoon Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So this storm is currently basically at the west coast thursday night, and affecting the east coast saturday night. This thing is flying. I cant fathom how this is supposed to drop big snow totals. I mean, maybe where the mid level fronto genesis occurs...but im having a hard time believing that heavy amounts of precip will occur over a decently large geographical area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: That was not a very big change from the 12z run at all actually, A couple tics east and another qpf trim. I thought it would be much further se as it hit the EC based on h5, but it jams the sfc north when I finally looked at the pretty precip fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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