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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That map over the past several runs may have changed 1" over this way and i don't see that changing from here until go time.

Yeah it's been ticking up and down (this run ticked a bit north again) but still in the noise category.  

The one thing the EPS mean did was smooth the QPF a bit more.  It increased it up north and decreased it a bit down south, creating a more uniform look, without really altering the track.  

And if you look at the individual maps, the 50 ensemble members are like all pretty much identical.  Very little spread.  I think we are narrowing into the final outcome but there's still a solid 48 hours to go. 

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4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Are we still safe from a big freezing rain even here in Worcester area? Sleet is heavy and slippery, but it wont bring down limbs.

I don't see a big ZR event in ORH. It's possible there could be a little bit of ZR. Esp at the warmest point aloft...but it should be a primarily sleet/snow event. 

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