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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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I hate trying to draw comparisons to other storms generally, but I could definitely see this playing out like a Feb event we had like 3-5 years ago.

We got thumped with like 2-5” of snow went to sleet for an hour or two and turned to a very cold (but not freezing) rain. That is a totally believable scenario down here, at least for me.

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24 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I'm wary of an earlier phase... mainly because that was associated with the GFS driving the surface low over Mass

As it looks now, I'd think our best case scenario (for most of SNE/CNE, at least) is a delayed interaction, helping the system stay east, we get the SWFE goods, followed by infusion of northern stream energy and CCB redevelopment late Sunday

The delayed reaction is how it will go done.

Its not phasing early. That idea, which I always dispelled when by the boards a couple of days ago.

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It's a screenshot of a video so the quality is trashy, but the hype from Weather Channel is insane. Where are they finding 3+ feet of snow?? Please don't tell me they're using Kuchera ratio...
weatherchannel.png.c330791e479c219759d5b47d0656d30c.png


I think they are. The twc app for my area has 1 foot or more Saturday night and 1 foot or more for Sunday. Then another 1-3 on Sunday night


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All these mentions that the pinging/freezing rain aspects seem to stop at the MA/NH border leave me feeling like I'm living on the edge of a razor.  I live literally 2 miles north of the MA border, just north of Haverhill.  I flip between predictions BOX gives and GYX as I'm at the edge of both their ownership areas.

Feeling good on something between 8-12" unless someone comes in showing lots more heading my way.  I'm in love with the Euro but some of the NAM solutions leave me so close the the accumulation boundaries that I could bust down from great totals to "meh but I get to use the snowblower" totals with additional NW creep>

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5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

snow to freezing rain to rain, my bad

I don't think there is really any way that Kevin's 'hood rains (as in plain rain of the non-freezing variety). Not unless we see the big amped up solutions come back that we're trying to plow a low through ALB. 

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