40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Looks like a ccb to end it. I am telling you....don't be surprised if the 12z EURO is a nuke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: I actually thought 12z GFS is a tic southeast, less amped... i.e., a small but definite step towards Euro / UK And not warmer than 6z run It was def a bit warmer early on and more amped to the west but it really seemed to run into a brick wall around 66 hours and ended up southeast by the time we got to Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Using Tropical Tidbits nifty "Previous Run" buttons to toggle version/intervals... I really see 0 meaningful differences at 500 mb on this run compared to any in six clicks backward - Do yourselves a favor - don't spend any time needling through this run... Most of the changes we've been seeing on most guidance are cosmetic and mostly noise. Exceptions might be the typical models like the NAM which came back to reality from a very suppressed 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was def a bit warmer early on and more amped to the west but it really seemed to run into a brick wall around 66 hours and ended up southeast by the time we got to Sunday morning. It was getting squeezed to the east as it headed NE, It developed late too this run so it had less resistance against the CAD until it was at this lat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC looks similar to the GFS but without the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z CMC has SLP over PHL at 72... just east of LI at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am telling you....don't be surprised if the 12z EURO is a nuke. I think anything is on the table at this point in time. It's really close to being a massive hit. Felt like yesterday a lot of the discussion was too definitive for 84-100 hrs out. That's why I was still saying 1-3" yesterday morning. Had all of those ensembles inland in the previous run. No consensus. Was knocked for saying it, but we're so far out and it had a torch look. Now it's changing it's evolution and it seems like 6" would be a good middle ground for Boston right now. Your hood is certainly 12-18", but that sleet line is still all over the place. GFS just took a big step in the right direction, but lets see the euro. If it's a bomb, then we're really talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Most of the changes we've been seeing on most guidance are cosmetic and mostly noise. Exceptions might be the typical models like the NAM which came back to reality from a very suppressed 06z run. Or should be ... at this point - ha ... But yeah - Thing is, the GFS is directing changes in it's surface evolution having non-discerning instruction from aloft to do so... That's really more what I was after... it's spraying solutions relative to a statically handled 500 mb, in other words ... and I'm not personally going to chase fractals for fun - f' that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z GGEM with a track tip of LI over the elbow 987mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: I think anything is on the table at this point in time. It's really close to being a massive hit. Felt like yesterday a lot of the discussion was too definitive for 84-100 hrs out. That's why I was still saying 1-3" yesterday morning. Had all of those ensembles inland in the previous run. No consensus. Was knocked for saying it, but we're so far out and it had a torch look. Now it's changing it's evolution and it seems like 6" would be a good middle ground for Boston right now. Your hood is certainly 12-18", but that sleet line is still all over the place. GFS just took a big step in the right direction, but lets see the euro. If it's a bomb, then we're really talking. I think that was obviously wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Although .. I will admit... the 84 hour illustration there (00z Monday) does introduce more of an ICONic (haha, that's funny) CCB lagging back through the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC has SLP over PHL at 72... just east of LI at 78 Ha ha ha... ho man... when I first read this I was like, "Whaaat - 972 mb over PHL... ?!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS and CMC pretty dang similar when comparing snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So are the models trending less or more amped overall? Or is it just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 33 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I subscribe to weather models, Maue's new site, the 850mb barely tickle the pike So yeah, it’s counting the sleet zone as snow on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah a snow ending too. Happy ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was def a bit warmer early on and more amped to the west but it really seemed to run into a brick wall around 66 hours and ended up southeast by the time we got to Sunday morning. Agree. The plow into the molasses cold was always a little suspect. Nice to see any sign of GFS ceding to the rest as the energy is entering California. The other thing that may be emerging: this anafrontal redevelopment and CCB 0z Monday... shown on GFS and ICON. Consistent with a stream interaction occurring late. I think that's a best-of-all-worlds synoptic scenario for SNE... earlier interaction and this would hug warm. Instead the system shunts more east (like UK, Euro) but then also redevelops later with northern stream interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: GFS and CMC pretty dang similar when comparing snowfall CMC looks identical to Box's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Tough telling on these maps, But that looks like it would be somewhat west if you draw a straight line between the two, Going to need the meteocentre maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I was a little bummed thinking about not being in Greenfield for this but Newburyport should be pretty fun too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Keys to the uncle’s stash are hard to come by.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Agree. The plow into the molasses cold was always a little suspect. Nice to see any sign of GFS ceding to the rest as the energy is entering California. The other thing that may be emerging: this anafrontal redevelopment and CCB 0z Monday... shown on GFS and ICON. Consistent with a stream interaction occurring late. I think that's a best-of-all-worlds synoptic scenario for SNE... earlier interaction and this would hug warm. Instead the system shunts more east (like UK, Euro) but then also redevelops later with northern stream interaction. Ray and I have been all over this the last couple of days... It's actually these run types ... quasi ceding to the Euro, which has demonstrated a much more proficient phase over it's last three cycles ... As an aside: that's 36 hour's worth of coverage there, which means these other guidance have offered some 8 to 9 cycles of missing that boat ... Anyway, that may be nod in favor of the more stream interaction. Originally I was not a fan of phasing really at all with this compressed overall mass-field structure and its concomitant fast velocity saturation - that makes the delicate handling of that mechanization a little belief -stressed... But, here we are...and the Euro is trying to get it done - if perhaps an homage to it's better sophistication as a prognostic tool in general; no argument there. Nevertheless (or more... ), I see this going one of two ways most likely, over the next day of modeling: one ... the Euro stays put with partial phase and CCB clip to protract the total event some into early Monday, while the other models catch on/up... ; versus two .. .the Euro shows even more phase, earlier on, and more of a bomb ordeal... and the other models also have to play catch-up in that scenario, as well... Either way, the IP/ZR contention/penetration is slipping by the boards and the writing is on the wall ... not like is hasn't been for days, just sayn' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, klw said: Well that is unnecessarily harsh. Just another name for regular gamblers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ray and I have been all over this the last couple of days... It's actually these run types ... quasi ceding to the Euro, which has demonstrated a much more proficient phase over it's last three cycles ... As an aside: that's 36 hour's worth of coverage there, which means these other guidance have offered some 8 to 9 cycles of missing that boat ... Anyway, that may be nod in favor of the more stream interaction. Originally I was not a fan of phasing really at all with this compressed overall mass-field structure and its concomitant fast velocity saturation - that makes the delicate handling of that mechanization a little belief -stressed... But, here we are...and the Euro is trying to get it done - if perhaps an homage to it's better sophistication as a prognostic tool in general; no argument there. Nevertheless (or more... ), I see this going one of two ways most likely, over the next day of modeling: one ... the Euro stays put with partial phase and CCB clip to protract the total event some into early Monday, while the other models catch on/up... ; versus two .. .the Euro shows even more phase, earlier on, and more of a bomb ordeal... and the other models also have to play catch-up in that scenario, as well... Either way, the IP/ZR contention/penetration is slipping by the boards and the writing is on the wall ... not like is hasn't been for days, just sayn' So you are more bullish on snow amounts pike N / Rte 2 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The main difference between the euro and other models is how far south it digs when it's over the plains. We should know fairly early into the 12z run which way it's trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: With 2-2.5” of qpf being modeled .. I’m not following ? Conditions would have to be perfect to get sleet only. I'm leaning towards the warmer GFS solution just solely based on how this winter has gone. I think you go S-R-Z-IP-S and the sleet is marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ray and I have been all over this the last couple of days... It's actually these run types ... quasi ceding to the Euro, which has demonstrated a much more proficient phase over it's last three cycles ... As an aside: that's 36 hour's worth of coverage there, which means these other guidance have offered some 8 to 9 cycles of missing that boat ... Anyway, that may be nod in favor of the more stream interaction. Originally I was not a fan of phasing really at all with this compressed overall mass-field structure and its concomitant fast velocity saturation - that makes the delicate handling of that mechanization a little belief -stressed... But, here we are...and the Euro is trying to get it done - if perhaps an homage to it's better sophistication as a prognostic tool in general; no argument there. Nevertheless (or more... ), I see this going one of two ways most likely, over the next day of modeling: one ... the Euro stays put with partial phase and CCB clip to protract the total event some into early Monday, while the other models catch on/up... ; versus two .. .the Euro shows even more phase, earlier on, and more of a bomb ordeal... and the other models also have to play catch-up in that scenario, as well... Either way, the IP/ZR contention/penetration is slipping by the boards and the writing is on the wall ... not like is hasn't been for days, just sayn' I'm wary of an earlier phase... mainly because that was associated with the GFS driving the surface low over Mass As it looks now, I'd think our best case scenario (for most of SNE/CNE, at least) is a delayed interaction, helping the system stay east, we get the SWFE goods, followed by infusion of northern stream energy and CCB redevelopment late Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, MarkO said: Conditions would have to be perfect to get sleet only. I'm leaning towards the warmer GFS solution just solely based on how this winter has gone. I think you go S-R-Z-IP-S and the sleet is marginal. Snow to rain to ZR? That ain't happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukie looks much closer to euro now. Maybe it finally got off the booze for a day. Looks like it has pellet line close to MA/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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