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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Several days ago it had temps in the single numbers falling to below zero at end of game.  Sure warmed up significantly out there

The storm system won't be as deep as it moves through my part of the world...in fact, it's likely to be an open wave. The upshot of that is not as much cold air on the backside. Temp guidance for Sunday has warmed 20-25 degrees since Tuesday.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Where are you guys viewing your ICON? I see no 850 temps on TT and I think the ptype maps are counting sleet as snow. 

I think it's the other way... The model is counting IP/ZR as rain S of the transition zone along Rt 2... i don't think this synoptic evolution supports liquid in interior Massachusetts...

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7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Currently, KC forecast is 24 on Sunday, 18 Sunday night, no mention of strong winds in their AFD, so much like last Sunday.  Wx shouldn't be an issue there for either team.

They were pimping single digits earlier in the week there, I havn't looked but that's meh as far as NE standards go for temps.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That ICON evolution is amazing looking ...  It has the IB snow burst ... terminating as steady ZR/IP (implicit...) south of the pike, with on-gong lighter snow N of that rough longitude... Then, a new low deepens rather rapidly I of NJ and we see CCB blossom from a NYC/LI to SE NH arc 

I was just thinking that I am 50/50 that the 12z euro goes ape$hit.

We'll see.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looks slightly north of 06z through 48h. Amazing that it won't give up despite being the northern outlier right now. Looks like it will double down this run. 

I wondering if it's adjustment happens more abruptly in the 00z per uptake off the Pacific... maybe an 18z sniffer

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1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

It looked really bad at the beginning stages but appears to have trended SE with the track. Still on the warmer side of things.

GFS definitely starting to catch on that it can't ram that surface low up into that cold press as others have been alluding too.  It's still not sure what to do earlier in the run...

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