STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I love the weenie 24-30 they dropped on Lunenburg. Will be taking the under N of route 2/ W of 495 If anyone wants to bite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I could see 8 or 9 here 2 miles south of the MA line followed by a prolonged scalping and a thin glaze of ZR. Mid-level warmth keeps me leary of going into double digits. Hopefully the high provides a bit more resistance and the mid-levels trend a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We don't to much freezing rain here. Just further N & W in the Foxboro/Sharon areas can pull it off though. Yea, I meant a bit nw of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will be taking the under N of route 2/ W of 495 If anyone wants to bite I agree with you on this... 18" is the upper end methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We don't to much freezing rain here. Just further N & W in the Foxboro/Sharon areas can pull it off though. Besides definitely not wanting it , why do you beleive you escape Frzr on this one, it’s more of a prolonged over-running event . I could see a cf pinned barely to your east and the gulf airmass butting up against your pressing polar high leaving Taunton looking like ice castles , perhaps west side better shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree with you on this... 18" is the upper end methinks Agree...I'm not even there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’d prefer 1-2 more ticks warmer in the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: So here's something I've been wondering about this week, and the University of Google has failed to shed any light... is there a rule of thumb for how warm is too warm at a given height before droplets would have no time to become supercooled? Like "if 850 is +n° you won't have freezing rain no matter how cold the BL is"? Or would it still cool enough by conduction to freeze just after contact regardless? It's a mirco-physical question ...one I cannot provide an answer for in any sophistication - I haven't looked into it. Chris/NWS may know... but, I seem to recall reading that +5 or +6 C is typical ...roughly in the 1500 meter level ... I could intuitively surmise that if the warm layer is higher up, than warmer than +6 may need to happen but that also gets rarer to get very high with very warm temperatures... so, just using this sort of spatial reasoning ...that may be why +6 is like a key temperature at 1500 or so... There are other offsets too... if the warm layer is +10 at say 1400 ...that may be hinder accretion rates but ... if the inflowing llv air has a very low dp, the water particles would cool faster and may offset. Something like that...But I'd ask Chris cuz I got a feelin' they have aps and checklists for that sort of thing right there in his office - ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Besides definitely not wanting it , why do you beleive you escape Frzr on this one, it’s more of a prolonged over-running event . I could see a cf pinned barely to your east and the gulf airmass butting up against your pressing polar high leaving Taunton looking like ice castles , perhaps west side better shotWouldnt mind experiencing that. It would be good for my business (replacing electrical services that get ripped off of houses). But living my whole life in Taunton and Raynham, I've never seen it before. Maybe Sunday though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, butterfish55 said: 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Besides definitely not wanting it , why do you beleive you escape Frzr on this one, it’s more of a prolonged over-running event . I could see a cf pinned barely to your east and the gulf airmass butting up against your pressing polar high leaving Taunton looking like ice castles , perhaps west side better shot Wouldnt mind experiencing that. It would be good for my business (replacing electrical services that get ripped off of houses). But living my whole life in Taunton and Raynham, I've never seen it before. Maybe Sunday though.... I lived there and I saw it once in the early 90’s didnt lose power but this isn’t really a setup I’ve seen in last upteen years. You want an ice storm in. S mass away from east coast , this looks like a decent way to do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, butterfish55 said: 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Besides definitely not wanting it , why do you beleive you escape Frzr on this one, it’s more of a prolonged over-running event . I could see a cf pinned barely to your east and the gulf airmass butting up against your pressing polar high leaving Taunton looking like ice castles , perhaps west side better shot Wouldnt mind experiencing that. It would be good for my business (replacing electrical services that get ripped off of houses). But living my whole life in Taunton and Raynham, I've never seen it before. Maybe Sunday though.... You def. have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree with you on this... 18" is the upper end methinks I'll take 18" and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12-18" where it stays all snow is right where it needs to be, Somebody will have a shot at 20" but getting to 24" will be a reach as it stands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What do you think? Too early, no one knows where it sets up usually a 20 mile wide area unforecastable this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12-18" where it stays all snow is right where it needs to be, Somebody will have a shot at 20" but getting to 24" will be a reach as it stands. I'm guessing they don't have a 18-20" option as they color in those swaths. 12-18" seems more likely at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Too early, no one knows where it sets up usually a 20 mile wide area unforecastable this far out Imagine how much money you would have if you could nail a stripe like that from 3 days out consistently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I agree with you on this... 18" is the upper end methinks Those products are notorious for going wild with every office . It’s like they let a weenie have at it , seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm guessing they don't have a 18-20" option as they color in those swaths. 12-18" seems more likely at this time. Yeah, It jumped right to 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Those products are notorious for going wild with every office . It’s like they let a weenie have at it , seriously It does seem that there is pretty strong upside potential in the hinterlands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not surprised, The 12z Nam is going to be NW of the 06z run and looks 4mb stronger to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM has some weird H5 things. Closed H5 low deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Imagine how much money you would have if you could nail a stripe like that from 3 days out consistently? We should open a weather book and make everyone on here degenerate gamblers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM has some weird H5 things. Closed H5 low deep south. Its pretty messy at H5 as it traverses the south heading east, Really elongated at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quite the scalping in the pike region after a nice front ended on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Really amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree...I'm not even there yet. Wide swath of 12-14" is the safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 scalping, maybe brief rain coast of S shore then rapid collaspse of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: We should open a weather book. Everyone on here is degenerates. Well that is unnecessarily harsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Verbatim pelting 18z Sunday with a 2m of 19 at BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM has some weird H5 things. Closed H5 low deep south. James getting excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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