Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks the QPF cut way back on 6z nam while gfs was about 70% higher than nam. interesting no really it's the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ice storm don't happen with nor'easter, only SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, cut said: my hamster aint on the wheel yet - sleepless night whence the whoosh over my head. In all seriousness though, starting to worry a bit about ice here in Trumbull - about 4 miles north of Long Island Sound. Ice would be rare here but.... SW CT is probably the most vulnerable area for icing right now in this storm. Def gonna need to watch it closely.m because there is potential for a lot of it too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So as an Icing rookie.. when do we worry about shit falling from the sky and power outages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Some BTV maps (Woodford for the win-as always): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: So as an Icing rookie.. when do we worry about shit falling from the sky and power outages? From what I have heard around 1/2 inch and it starts to get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: Ice storm don't happen with nor'easter, only SWFE Sounds like you never saw any maps of December 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, cut said: From what I have heard around 1/2 inch and it starts to get real. hmm.. .sounds close based on NWS map posted .. I'm in Burlington/Bedford area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just wish we could figure out where the zr/ sleet line is. No one seems to be able to forecast that . Do we get 3-4” of sleet on top of the 6-8” of snow or do we get an hour of sleet and 10 hours of zr before flip back to snow.. Ryan thinks predominantly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: no really it's the NAM, doesn’t it usually run wet Actually yes, yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: So as an Icing rookie.. when do we worry about shit falling from the sky and power outages? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Ice storm don't happen with nor'easter, only SWFE They can ...but it's rarer... In 1921 ... a coastal storm brought 3" of accretion as close to Boston proper as outer Brookline ... In general ... a coastal storm ..a.k.a. "nor-easter", typical vertical/thermal profile doesn't orient the with a layer to +5 C about 1300 meters but not too high to be a sleeting column. That's more naturally associated with overrunning... In fact, I've seen overrunning burst of snow go to sleet/ZR for a couple hours, then, as a Miller B takes over your back over to snow for several hours then ends. The cyclone SE model eradicates elevate warm layers below the snow growth of the sounding(s)... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks the QPF cut way back on 6z nam while gfs was about 70% higher than nam. interesting Weaker system on the Nam by about 10mb from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ryan thinks predominantly sleet I agree....I had a thin strip of major icing potential from south central CT through N RI into interior se MA. I won't be widespread, and preceding snow/sleet pack will mitigate its effects. You may actually have a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: hmm.. .sounds close based on NWS map posted .. I'm in Burlington/Bedford area I'd be stunned if you got much frz rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Weaker system on the Nam by about 10mb from the GFS. I'm pulling for the weaker system to verify. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: SW CT is probably the most vulnerable area for icing right now in this storm. Def gonna need to watch it closely.m because there is potential for a lot of it too. Yea, into s central CT, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be stunned if you got much frz rain. Yes. It is always seems overdone at first and then hours before they settle it down to .01 - .10 of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm pulling for the weaker system to verify. As well you should be if i was there, I would as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree....I had a thin strip of major icing potential from south central CT through N RI into interior se MA. I won't be widespread, and preceding snow/sleet pack will mitigate its effects. You may actually have a shot... We don't to much freezing rain here. Just further N & W in the Foxboro/Sharon areas can pull it off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Significant, but far from devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree....I had a thin strip of major icing potential from south central CT through N RI into interior se MA. I won't be widespread, and preceding snow/sleet pack will mitigate its effects. You may actually have a shot... All set with that geezuz,not exactly what I need right now. I am using VD 07 as an analogy with max snow south. Hoping for a cold tic at midlevels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree....I had a think strip of major icing potential from south central CT through N RI into interior se MA. You may actually have a shot... yeah... really... all peregrinations and protestations and hand wringing aside... nothing changes the fact that there is a wall of +PP arctic air in place and back-built on even more +PP N... Not only is the lower tropospheric thickness correction vector pointed south...that's a big long vector! We did this back in November ... last year at one point or another, fifty times over the last ten years, and always throughout eternity. ...where there's this tendency to let paranoid outfox actual physical laws of fluid mechanics. Little frustration in that sentiment...yeah yeah... but in this case, the transition zones I think with confidence get compacted S-E more than even the higher resolution/performing tools would have it... And If there's going to be a warm layer...it ends up too high to make for much other than sleet... I would not be surprised if the icing part of this system's fears end up allayed by 2" of sleet with only a 20 mile wide ZR zone mashed down to almost LI and NYC/NJ some where... Hey...don't care if I'm wrong... We'll see.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, into s central CT, too. Not loving that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Significant, but far from devastating. Once past .50", That's when the problems start, When it gets to 2"+, I let you know what happens when the power is back on 14 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Significant, but far from devastating. There will be wind as this departs correct? That ice hanging (.33 to .5) could be a problem with 30+ gusts I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Upped I love the weenie 24-30 they dropped on Lunenburg. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My post wasn’t for THIS storm specifically. There has been numerous systems over the past 7 years (last March not withstanding) where ridging in the N ATL is there initially looks good at D5-7 but then poof. Lower heights in the NewF region usually just blow through any heigher heights to the N. I know that you meant in general, which is only true when there is no apparent impetus for the blocking. Nothing could be further from the truth this season, nor last season. You need to know what to look for, and not just summarily dismiss. Remember, assess yourself, and look to guidance for conformation. This voo doo conceptualization that blocking is akin to some sort of mythical legend is entirely a product of people just impulsively whacking it to long range ensembles without questioning it. Last January was a prime example....people pinned there hopes to it and flipped, when there was never anything to support it. This led to the tragically flawed presupposition that least season would never recover, and we'd see an early spring. #oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: They can ...but it's rarer... In 1921 ... a coastal storm brought 3" of accretion as close to Boston proper as outer Brookline ... In general ... a coastal storm ..a.k.a. "nor-easter", typical vertical/thermal profile doesn't orient the with a layer to +5 C about 1300 meters but not too high to be a sleeting column. That's more naturally associated with overrunning... In fact, I've seen overrunning burst of snow go to sleet/ZR for a couple hours, then, as a Miller B takes over your back over to snow for several hours then ends. The cyclone SE model eradicates elevate warm layers below the snow growth of the sounding(s)... So here's something I've been wondering about this week, and the University of Google has failed to shed any light... is there a rule of thumb for how warm is too warm at a given height before droplets would have no time to become supercooled? Like "if 850 is +n° you won't have freezing rain no matter how cold the BL is"? Or would it still cool enough by conduction to freeze just after contact regardless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ryan thinks predominantly sleet What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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