J Paul Gordon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Anyone willing to guess whether we manage to get more IP than ZR in central Mass? Guess the memory of 2008 won't go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s part of the fraud 5 isn’t it strong back end dump. Rarely ever materialize and If it does it is 1-2” I doubt it will be more than that this time but it could be a high impact 1-2" if it does happen. For areas that tickle above freezing, say, south shore or something., it would be a flash freeze and then the inch or two of powder on top of it. That can be really nasty. But yeah, I don't think it will add a bunch to the accumulations like a march 8, 2005 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I mentioned this last night, too. Its like every run folks are like, "this looks cold" like it's some sort of surprise but it's been hashed out now since Day 9 that yes, this will be cold. Even this morning it's like, "that should be cold." Yup, the Mets on here have been saying that for literally 4 days in a row. But even if you know the SFC temps are wrong, I guess just seeing them probably leaves that small doubt. Just read BTV AFD 15 to 20 to 1 ratios in your hood,then winds in the 50s with temps near 0,epic drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Anyone willing to guess whether we manage to get more IP than ZR in central Mass? Guess the memory of 2008 won't go away. This is highly unlikely to be another 2008 in C MA. Mostly snow and sleet is My guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Huh I was referring to the euro showing sleet changing to a period of heavy snow Thought you meant blocking. Deleted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No.....this post is. We just had great blocking in March and will within 2-3 weeks. My post wasn’t for THIS storm specifically. There has been numerous systems over the past 7 years (last March not withstanding) where ridging in the N ATL is there initially looks good at D5-7 but then poof. Lower heights in the NewF region usually just blow through any heigher heights to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still some decent spread on guidance. I'm still hedging slightly colder but I believe we're getting close to the final solution. Getting inside of 3 days now. Won't be surprised at a tick colder and then a last second bump north after that. Sort of agree... I give that 60%, but that's mid way on a positive slope (so to speak...). It's the low N-S amplitude in how this is coming nearly due E egress off the Pacific Ocean ... it isn't doing certitude any favors here. Plus... the N/stream involvement is adding another wild-card... Not sure that's clear until the southern stream is amply sampled and resident in the flow...such that it's transitive effectiveness on modulating stream interactions can be assessed properly by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I like RT 2 in Mass for the snow/sleet line at its max. I am pretty sure I will ping for a little while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I just wish we could figure out where the zr/ sleet line is. No one seems to be able to forecast that . Do we get 3-4” of sleet on top of the 6-8” of snow or do we get an hour of sleet and 10 hours of zr before flip back to snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks the QPF cut way back on 6z nam while gfs was about 70% higher than nam. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I just wish we could figure out where the zr/ sleet line is. No one seems to be able to forecast that . Do we get 3-4” of sleet on top of the 6-8” of snow or do we get an hour of sleet and 10 hours of zr before flip back to snow.. Not over you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just wish we could figure out where the zr/ sleet line is. No one seems to be able to forecast that . Do we get 3-4” of sleet on top of the 6-8” of snow or do we get an hour of sleet and 10 hours of zr before flip back to snow.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not over you What about eastern Fairfield county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I mentioned this last night, too. Its like every run folks are like, "this looks cold" like it's some sort of surprise but it's been hashed out now since Day 9 that yes, this will be cold. Even this morning it's like, "that should be cold." Yup, the Mets on here have been saying that for literally 4 days in a row. But even if you know the SFC temps are wrong, I guess just seeing them probably leaves that small doubt. Yeah... if one wants to engage in this past time ... one must be aware/remember that there are all kinds of different intellectual colors and intents for other's engagement - haha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is highly unlikely to be another 2008 in C MA. Mostly snow and sleet is My guess. Thanks. Crazy how close the gradient of projected snowfall is just from Worcester to Fitchburg. That was the reason why I was wondering. Figured it probably wont go to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, cut said: What about eastern Fairfield county? On the back bumper of your car? I'd say about 1/32 more than the actual hood - you have to remember ... even after 8 to 10 hours of non-use, the engine block is cube of iron and will continue to liberate small small quanta of therms to molecular water that is trying to free... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, J Paul Gordon said: Thanks. Crazy how close the gradient of projected snowfall is just from Worcester to Fitchburg. That was the reason why I was wondering. Figured it probably wont go to plain rain. Sleet will account for the difference. ORH will probably get more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's kind of what I've been thinking. I think those solutions that tickle it into S NH will eventually settle southeast a little. Or I could totally see one of those scenarios where nowcast time comes along and the sleet line is hitting a brick wall and it just never quite makes it as far north as guidance says. There's some competing forces here and it feels weird to hedge colder aloft because usually my instinct from experience is to shove the sleet further north than we think on SW flow..but this is a somewhat different setup...the Arctic high really doesn't get in a better spot even if we drew it up ourselves. It going to provide some resistance...even some of that will be felt at altitude I think. Buuut....always some uncertainty...the source region of this system is definitely impressive. That rich gulf moisture will provide a good opponent for the Arctic dome. Yeah that's the weird thing. Say the low goes near ACK with that cold high...sort of limits the IP potential near the NH border. But that plume above 800 is a furnace...sort of goes against instinct. I think there is going to be a nice CF area that probably pulls a 94 and pelts..maybe 128 for a time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: ?? 3-4" of sleet, lol. WOTYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: On the back bumper of your car? I'd say about 1/32 more than the actual hood - you have to remember ... even after 8 to 10 hours of non-use, the engine block is cube of iron and will continue to liberate small small quanta of therms to molecular water that is trying to free... So you're saying it won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Euro op and EPS really start to tilt more NNE-SSW with the low and show even a possible meso low near the outer Cape. If anything that helps lock in ageo flow over the interior and makes it easier to collapse back south. Something to watch. The weight of single digits and teens over the interior will want to press south and weighs over the area like truck. Wants to move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, MarkO said: 3-4" of sleet, lol. WOTYA With 2-2.5” of qpf being modeled .. I’m not following ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that's the weird thing. Say the low goes near ACK with that cold high...sort of limits the IP potential near the NH border. But that plume above 800 is a furnace...sort of goes against instinct. I think there is going to be a nice CF area that probably pulls a 94 and pelts..maybe 128 for a time? Can it be like Canton 128 and not Woburn? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, cut said: So you're saying it won't be an issue. not saying anything - i'm being a sarcastic d-bag ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: ?? Asking to nail down a sleet/ZR line 3 days out deserved a bun. Id prob hedge more sleet for you at the moment with maybe a bit of ZR but we need to pinch the spread on the models a bit more before saying anything with confidence on that front. The only part that is close to a lock right now is you will not sniff freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Upped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, PowderBeard said: Upped Follow the red line to see where NWS thinks sleet line gets to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not saying anything - i'm being a sarcastic d-bag ... my hamster aint on the wheel yet - sleepless night whence the whoosh over my head. In all seriousness though, starting to worry a bit about ice here in Trumbull - about 4 miles north of Long Island Sound. Ice would be rare here but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now