TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here's last night's euro ensemble low tracks. Looks cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: MPM and Ray dream map! I got up early to work on some photoshop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: MPM and Ray dream map! Last good one at Pit1 before the move to ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd probably not get bullish on high end of those amounts given the influx of warmth aloft. Respect the tongue aloft. Unless this thing goes off ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd probably not get bullish on high end of those amounts given the influx of warmth aloft. Respect the tongue aloft. Unless this thing goes off ACK. That and the progressive nature of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: Here's last night's euro ensemble low tracks. Looks cold. Tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: Here's last night's euro ensemble low tracks. Looks cold. How do we rain down here with that track? I would think that's a frozen mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Here's last night's euro ensemble low tracks. Looks cold. Last night's gfs ensembles aren't bad, I'd say warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Scooter caution flags thrown all over the field. Thinking 6-12" for BOS and IMBY...…….lower end if we mix with more IP.....higher end if the low tracks closer to ACK. 12"+ NW of PSM-BED-ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Good overnight models to offset that horrific Bruins game last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ballsy. 90% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Toss any gfs family. Nam more reliable and it is tamer with qpf. Also 06z Nam much weaker with the SLP 997 mb, 06z Euro, 990mb at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CarverWX said: How do we rain down here with that track? I would think that's a frozen mix. The warm punch aloft is no joke. It torches from 850-700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Still some decent spread on guidance. I'm still hedging slightly colder but I believe we're getting close to the final solution. Getting inside of 3 days now. Won't be surprised at a tick colder and then a last second bump north after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: we've been saying that all week... Is this new to you ? I know I get it... you want to see it in the actual model illustration I mentioned this last night, too. Its like every run folks are like, "this looks cold" like it's some sort of surprise but it's been hashed out now since Day 9 that yes, this will be cold. Even this morning it's like, "that should be cold." Yup, the Mets on here have been saying that for literally 4 days in a row. But even if you know the SFC temps are wrong, I guess just seeing them probably leaves that small doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd probably not get bullish on high end of those amounts given the influx of warmth aloft. Respect the tongue aloft. Unless this thing goes off ACK. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I like RT 2 in Mass for the snow/sleet line at its max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Ballsy. 90% probability. CT gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Also 06z Nam much weaker with the SLP 997 mb, 06z Euro, 990mb at the same time frame. Yea. I mean don’t go nam obv just was pointing how awful gfs is and if nam is tamer with qpf, kind of a small red flag. I think 2FT going to be hard to reach in CNE.... I like 14-20” for jacks in CNE mostly in WMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still some decent spread on guidance. I'm still hedging slightly colder but I believe we're getting close to the final solution. Getting inside of 3 days now. Won't be surprised at a tick colder and then a last second bump north after that. Other then some tics either way, Track has been pretty consistent on most guidance with the uncle still on a 3 day bender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. I mean don’t go nam obv just was pointing how awful gfs is and if nam is tamer with qpf, kind of a small red flag. I think 2FT going to be hard to reach in CNE.... I like 14-20” for jacks in CNE mostly in WMA. If there was some up stream blocking the totals would be prolific for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: CT gets screwed No surprise here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I like RT 2 in Mass for the snow/sleet line at its max. Yeah that's kind of what I've been thinking. I think those solutions that tickle it into S NH will eventually settle southeast a little. Or I could totally see one of those scenarios where nowcast time comes along and the sleet line is hitting a brick wall and it just never quite makes it as far north as guidance says. There's some competing forces here and it feels weird to hedge colder aloft because usually my instinct from experience is to shove the sleet further north than we think on SW flow..but this is a somewhat different setup...the Arctic high really doesn't get in a better spot even if we drew it up ourselves. It going to provide some resistance...even some of that will be felt at altitude I think. Buuut....always some uncertainty...the source region of this system is definitely impressive. That rich gulf moisture will provide a good opponent for the Arctic dome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: If there was some up stream blocking the totals would be prolific for this. It’s always seems modeled but rarely materializes. Honorary mention to the Fraud 5 list. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: CT gets screwed Whatever it takes to avoid significant freezing rain. If that means sacrificing snow/sleet for plain rain than so be it (as hard as it is to say that) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: If there was some up stream blocking the totals would be prolific for this. If wishes were horses.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, weathafella said: I noticed that. I couldn’t tell whether it was a function of timing but I think the sleet is 20 miles further north at 6Z. What are your run thoughts on the strong back end dump euro is depicting ? That’s part of the fraud 5 isn’t it strong back end dump. Rarely ever materialize and If it does it is 1-2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: Whatever it takes to avoid significant freezing rain. If that means sacrificing snow/sleet for plain rain than so be it (as hard as it is to say that) . I think those lower amounts reflect a lot of zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s always seems modeled but rarely materializes. Honory mention to the Fraud 5 list. BS. Never supposed to yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Ballsy. 90% probability. But meaningless as they raise and lower these amounts like a 45 year old client does a glass of wine , effortlessly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now