Blizzard96 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Kuchera, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Actually quite steady... 0z Euro may be a tick warmer vs. 12z, noise at this range The only major model that came west at 0z was the NAM in its clown range... Euro, UK, GFS all ticked east / steady and bring SNE into the bigger snows, along with CNE/NNE. Nice to see these runs hone in now that our southern stream system is entering the West coast. Decent consensus to open with 6-12" in much of SNE pike north, 10-16" CNE, and can adjust up (more likely) or down as we get closer (returning from a conference in CA, haven't been able to post... hope to bring some good juju to the disco... and will be in Stowe this weekend!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 I can't stand the Kuchera charts....its like an algorithm that James formulated in the index of 'The Dawn Awakening'.. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I post them for entertainment value. I'll prolly end up with 8 inches of sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That kuchera map looks like somebody hit that with a spray can with a clogged nozzle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't stand the Kuchera charts....its like an algorithm that James formulated in the index of 'The Dawn Awakening'.. I can't stand snow maps period. This event is going to have so much sleet and freezing rain dragged into those maps. I mean say you sit at +2C at 850 mb for the event, or at least a good chunk of it. That spits out a Kuchera ratio of 4:1. At 1-1.5" QPF you're talking 4-6" snow, despite not really have any realistic shot at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'll take my 3-6" front end and be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I can't stand snow maps period. This event is going to have so much sleet and freezing rain dragged into those maps. I mean say you sit at +2C at 850 mb for the event, or at least a good chunk of it. That spits out a Kuchera ratio of 4:1. At 1-1.5" QPF you're talking 4-6" snow, despite not really have any realistic shot at it. Yea...I don't think my 10:1 is too high, I only peak at like 1C at between H85-H7 for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 heavy snow and ice with totals near 12 inches for inland ct and mass with ice storm models are trending colder each run low will move just south of long island area . artic air wont move out models have hard time with that . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3z SREF & 6z NAM with a jump S fwiw, out of range of course. WIll be fun to see NAM thermals once we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z NAM is less amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: James, enough with that crap..you would not get 4'. If it trended south, you get colder, but also lose some WCB...thus lose some QPF. 3 hours ago, Blizzard96 said: Kuchera, enjoy! A real Henniker Humper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 At 84z, the GFS has the low on top of Kevin's dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is the new drunk uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: GFS is the new drunk uncle. When is the center of the low actually going to be onshore in the CONUS so we can get some accurate sampling? Would it be in time for the 12z runs or would we need to wait for the 00z suite to come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: When is the center of the low actually going to be onshore in the CONUS so we can get some accurate sampling? Would it be in time for the 12z runs or would we need to wait for the 00z suite to come out? I thought it would be today... 12z runs should have it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The box from HubbDave to Hippy/MPM to Mitch to Dendrite...that's your jackpot on all guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I thought it would be today... 12z runs should have it? Looking for some analogs to this system, how does either VD 2007 or St Paddy's Day 2007 sound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 WSW’s issued down to the Canal. We winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Everything south and about the same overnight . All systems go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 No longer an icing threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: When is the center of the low actually going to be onshore in the CONUS so we can get some accurate sampling? Would it be in time for the 12z runs or would we need to wait for the 00z suite to come out? The 500 mb heights we want samples of are roughly 24 hours from now, so the 00z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The 500 mb heights we want samples of are roughly 24 hours from now, so the 00z runs. Thanks, when I was looking at satellite images it seemed to me it's not that big gyre in the Pacific we need to watch but that little disturbance behind it which will become our big storm when it digs into the south and intensifies? That big gyre in the Pacific is actually headed into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS is broken from the shutdown! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Modfan said: No longer an icing threat? Massive icing threat on NAM and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, when I was looking at satellite images it seemed to me it's not that big gyre in the Pacific we need to watch but that little disturbance behind it which will become our big storm when it digs into the south and intensifies? That big gyre in the Pacific is actually headed into Canada. It's actually the shortwave I marked here. You can see a secondary WCB forming just to its east. \ This shortwave is the one that moves downstream and forces the lee cyclone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Very concerning for my CT people. Grid failure type event likely now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Very concerning for my CT people. Grid failure type event likely now. Thinking more of a sleet fest after 5 to 8 inches of snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It's actually the shortwave I marked here. You can see a secondary WCB forming just to its east. \ This shortwave is the one that moves downstream and forces the lee cyclone. Thoughts on ZR/ sleet in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hmmm seems a bit high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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