dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Emphasis on the "+" It will fall somewhere in between there in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm guessing you already have some of this loaded in the grids? We're already pushing 2" QPF for southern zones, so I don't anticipate going higher than what we have already. Still plenty of snow in the grids though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Large +PNA ridge out west and over the NE Pacific Ocean, -EPO domain present too. This might lead to a large snow event out on the East Coast sometime in the 9-10 day time period, with this weekend's event, there are three large systems at play through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 lolSiggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: We're already pushing 2" QPF for southern zones, so I don't anticipate going higher than what we have already. Still plenty of snow in the grids though. 2" is juicy, 12-16"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: 2" is juicy, 12-16"? That's pretty much the range of what we have now. Could be one of those fairly uniform spreads where dendrites are falling in the low QPF to the north, while the beefy QPF is lower ratio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I've noticed that the 0z model guidance has been faster than 18z just about across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: That's pretty much the range of what we have now. Could be one of those fairly uniform spreads where dendrites are falling in the low QPF to the north, while the beefy QPF is lower ratio. Brian and i had that same convo a page or so back some higher ratio 12-15:1 then back to 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00z GFS is colder as well as producing more snow on the front end for the Cape and Islands, still changes over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 lol at ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z GFS is colder as well as producing more snow on the front end for the Cape and Islands, still changes over to rain. It may change over for you but even you may go back to snow as the low departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: lol at ukie Hail to the Queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukie not budging from its offshore track. Might even be a touch further east than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: It may change over for you but even you may go back to snow as the low departs. If the 00z UKMET model is right, we get all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: lol at ukie Hr 96 on the 00z GFS the low is already just east of Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This looks more and more like a colder storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: lol at ukie Steadfast throughout. If this verifies, they should have the top score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 00z GFS is colder as well as producing more snow on the front end for the Cape and Islands, still changes over to rain. Who cares whether it snows 2 or 4 inches before it pours? We need significant changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Hr 96 on the 00z GFS the low is already just east of Eastport Maybe GFS is showing its normal progressive bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NeonPeon said: Who cares whether it snows 2 or 4 inches before it pours? Maybe it won't pour at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Hr 96 on the 00z GFS the low is already just east of Eastport I have feeding the UK shot after shot of Patron, its working. Uncle is shitfaced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: Who cares whether it snows 2 or 4 inches before it pours? According to ukmet this would be an all snow event for the cape and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Greg said: This looks more and more like a colder storm. That’s a trend lately, I see. 1) storms juicer than progged and 2) convergence and N and NW flow stronger as we get closer to game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: If the cold layer is pretty deep (800-1000m or more) and at least -8C or so...then you can start refreezing them pretty easily...esp since you start to get poorly formed ice crystals in the cold layer for the drops to freeze onto when you are colder than -8C. But that will be much tougher if the drops are warm...so the warmer/deeper the elevated warm layer, the better for preventing that. Though admittedly, those conditions become hard to achieve the further you swing into one extreme,....usually a 4-5C warm layer will have a shallower layer of colder underneath it that has a hard time reaching -8C or being deeper than 800m. Another way to look at it is positive and negative energy (you take/need positive energy to melt, you release/lose energy to freeze). At 12z Sunday at BDL the NAM has almost twice as much negative energy than positive. So you are more likely to totally refreeze the hydrometeors in that scenario. Once positive energy > negative the hydrometeors won't have enough negative energy to refreeze completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Maybe it won't pour at all Tinkerbell might fly if you keep clapping your hands, but I'm not sure it's good science. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: According to ukmet this would be an all snow event for the cape and nyc Not necessarily. Mid levels presumably warm but would crash with that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have feeding the UK shot after shot of Patron, its working. Uncle is shitfaced And we were not invited, Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Not necessarily. Mid levels presumably warm but would crash with that depiction. No way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Not necessarily. Mid levels presumably warm but would crash with that depiction. I doubt that Just now, dryslot said: And we were not invited, Damn Shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: No way It's possible. You have a decent warm fetch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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