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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, CT Rain said:

Tossing the low level thermals with the GFS but that would be a pretty nasty ice event down here. 

That would be ridiculous I think down in that area. If we are able to torch the midlevels as much as the GFS says, then someone in SNE would get a monster ice storm. I'm still guessing it doesn't end up that warm aloft, but we gotta consider it for sure.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NAEFS was a slight increase in the strength of the IVT plume at 12z today, maybe a once every other year type event.

EPS was definitely stronger, with the return interval more like 5 to 10 years.

I'm guessing you already have some of this loaded in the grids?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The moisture plume coming from basically the Bay of Campeche gives me more confidence of higher QPF than usual. Not sure I am ready to buy 2-3" amounts north of the sfc front where convection will be less, but 1.5-2 might happen.

If you look at a Wilks 2006 reliability diagram for QPF you'll see that all models tend to have a wet bias for QPF. They too often are too wet. 

I'm trying to find a specific North American diagram with recent stats, but no luck. For Europe the EPS is something like 80% of the forecasts for heavy QPF, it actually occurs about 50% of the time. 

I suspect North America would be no different in that regard.

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