klw Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS seems to ignore the trend and also carves a weird path. Much rain to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS is a terrible model. Completely on an island now....for two runs in a row. I don't think there is a single OP model agreeing with it now. Even the obscure WWII models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Its more amped...it's also a little faster which might give the appearance of being east. But the mix line gets further north this run. At about hour 84 it makes a run north/northeast to the southeastern NY/ Western CT boarder. I never saw a configuration like that. I actually thought it would just move northeast after hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS is trash, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Actually I take that back....GFS does have the clown range RGEM on its side....RGEM has the low even further west trying to cut into NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Great run on GFS let’s set the trend 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bristolri_wx said: That temp gradient......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It also cuts its QPF for everyone a bit which may be one thing to take away from it. Still healthy amounts but not quite as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is a terrible model. Completely on an island now....for two runs in a row. I don't think there is a single OP model agreeing with it now. Even the obscure WWII models. Now I know where my NWS forecast is coming from... can't trust the Government F!@#$% Shutdown model at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: Great run on GFS let’s set the trend I agree , that’s ice and lots of it . Thermals are always tossed w GFS and SLP placement would be a bit S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I agree , that’s ice and lots of it . Thermals are always tossed w GFS and SLP placement would be a bit S Yeah in reality, it would prob be like 4-6" of snow on the front and then a ton of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I knew we were cooked early on on this run when it closed off at H5 over Oaklahoma...................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah in reality, it would prob be like 4-6" of snow on the front and then a ton of ZR. Seems within the realm of outcomes is there something that doesn’t sit right about its handling of upper levels.and mid level temps .. we kno to toss 2m temps and it’s issue w SLP placement not seeing CAD euro was previously closing off 5H on Saturday when it was amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Let's predict which user melts first when the 18z GFS pumps out a veiny high hard-one through Albany again ... j/k but ... maybe not - Almost...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems within the realm of outcomes is there something that doesn’t sit right about its handling of upper levels.and mid level temps .. we kno to toss 2m temps and it’s issue w SLP placement not seeing CAD euro was previously closing off 5H on Saturday when it was amped Yeah it's def till possible we get that type of outcome. But it goes against the recent trends. GFS obviously really screws up the other stuff though as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I didn't think it would track like that after hour 84. It doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 i have the gfs on ignore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: International flights are rarely if ever cancelled unless you have some sort of catastrophic weather event. Those are by far the last flights to get axed They are normally the last to get axed but they will if the forecast is bad enough. I work TSA at Logan Airport at the International Terminal E. What the domestic airlines do is start to cancel their smaller, low passenger yield, regional flights first. Then they will cancel the rest of their flights about 24 hours before storm time if the forecast is still bad. THe old off until the bnes are different. They will hold off until the bitter end and most likely just cancel their inbounds from Europe which then has a trickle effect by canceling that nights flight back to Europe. Some airlines will delay their inbound by as much as 10 hours if the storm is forecast to wind down/end by the time they need to land. I remember the Jan 4th, 2018 storm last year (what was the buzzword on that storm that everyone was calling it on social media? cyclopse or something?), every single flight was cancelled in the airport except for a couple from Europe that were just delayed. I think Hainan Airlines delayed their inbounds from Beijing and Shanghai by like 8 hours just so they could operate their nightly flight back and they could operate their nightly flight back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Really didn't cut back qpf per se, Just redistributed it.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i have the gfs on ignore I approve this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Actually I take that back....GFS does have the clown range RGEM on its side....RGEM has the low even further west trying to cut into NY State. My friend at ec told me its experimental so dont give it too much of a hard time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, ariof said: Last March they closed the airport. Nothing came in. This might not be that level of storm (it probably won't be). Logan doesn't officially close, but it strongly encourages everyone to cancel flights, which allows them to clear runways and stands, and to reopen the airport, and to keep people from getting stranded on the tarmac or ramp. Logan rarely officially closes, but has had several instances in the past few years where no flights have landed in a day. This storm may not meet that criteria, but if it does, expect the flight to cancel. Luckily this time of year there's probably a lot of extra capacity to and from Europe. I had to work that storm last March. All flights in and out were canceled until about 8PM when a few international flights went out. We closed the checkpoint basically all day and only reopened it at about 6PM because of those flights. Passenger and people were still out in the public areas all day but because all the checkpoints were closed, the airport was considered closed. It rarely happens though and if it does happen, it's only for a short time like I just explained. Only in 2015 did the airport completely close a couple of times to the point where they told us we could stay home and still get paid. When that happens the airport is really closed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Really didn't cut back qpf per se, Just redistributed it.......... The Maine coast was the only place to see an increase ;). It was a decent cut in PA/NY/VT/NH/MA/ME(except coast). Not that it matters with that low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I want it to torch at 18z and then cave cold at 00z. Then the ukie and ec come in at 0z uber amplified again. All going according to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: All going according to plan. Careful what you wish for. You don’t want to have cocksicles in those coops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: My friend at ec told me its experimental so dont give it too much of a hard time lol. Yeah rgem's wheelhouse is like 24-36 hours. I don't really pay attention to it much beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS puts just enough uncertainty on the table to pump the brakes but don’t change direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah rgem's wheelhouse is like 24-36 hours. I don't really pay attention to it much beyond that. Right me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS puts just enough uncertainty on the table to pump the brakes but don’t change direction. GEFS are not as amped as the OP but still more so than the EPS. My guess is the GFS caves at 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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