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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

That has quite the icy look here in CT....yikes

It's still a"warm" look in the southern area of SNE, yes.  By the time the low gets up to the NJ area, we are already warming the 850mb levels above 0c. There is still a nice thump at the front endand a couple hours makes a huge difference,  It's too early to parse these details as the storm is still waffling around.

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

That has quite the icy look here in CT....yikes

More for you than for me in Trumbull - elevation for the loss for you - although I hope no one gets ice. I was up in New England skiing during that epic one that went all the way up to Montreal - forget what year - 98 maybe?

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

I'm with Ray on this one. Let us not forget SWFE climo. Snow to ice with the best thump north of the Pike. Sell on the crazy QPF amounts. 

wouldn't sleep on gulf source / longer duration of precip than typical SWFE

i bet just north of the mid lvl warm front where precip can stay mostly snow has a good chance higher end amounts working out (say 8"-14")

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I know it's hard to say at this time considering we don't even know the track of this thing but does anybody know what the timing of this is looking like? I have plans for travel by road around SNE Sunday afternoon. Is it looking like a Saturday night to Sunday night deal? Or something that ends by Sunday afternoon?

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1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

wouldn't sleep on gulf source / longer duration of precip than typical SWFE

i bet just north of the mid lvl warm front where precip can stay mostly snow has a good chance higher end amounts working out (say 8"-14")

Yeah it's definitely more jacked up than the typical SWFE but I'm not buying 2'' of liquid. 

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