tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: WTF is that? It goes from like SW VA to the benchmark...even a bit east of the BM Do you think that could just be a follow up wave along the front if it's strung out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That's outside the BM as you look closer, Jimmy would get his snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, tombo82685 said: Do you think that could just be a follow up wave along the front if it's strung out? It's pretty far south for that and it doesn't look THAT strung out by 120. It's admittedly hard to tell everything without seeing the 108 hour panel....but even trying to picture that evolution, I would think that is solidly east of most guidance in between frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 At least Crazy Uncle is holding ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Greg said: At least Crazy Uncle is holding ground. But it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 96h panel looks colder than the GFS and even the GGEM but it isn't really all that out of whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 There's a massive lack of consensus here. Low confidence in any particular model. Taking a peek at the overall look, I'd have 1-3" at BOS for now, with small chances of reaching 3-6" territory. We'd need massive changes, Miami Dolphins style miracle, for anything different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: There's a massive lack of consensus here. Low confidence in any particular model. Taking a peek at the overall look, I'd have 1-3" at BOS for now, with small chances of reaching 3-6" territory. We'd need massive changes, Miami Dolphins style miracle, for anything different. BOS could easily see 6"+....a lot of guidance already gives that to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: But it didn't. Actually what I was getting at and should have been more specific was based on the 18Z not 0Z last night as you showed here. It seems to be going further south. Just an observation not a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That actually could be the wave behind it if you look at the GFS at that hr it has that second slp out there but can't see between panels on the Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Greg said: Actually what I was getting at and should have been more specific was based on the 18Z not 0Z last night as you showed here. It seems to be going further south. Just an observation not a forecast Yeah, That was an open ended statement............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: There's a massive lack of consensus here. Low confidence in any particular model. Taking a peek at the overall look, I'd have 1-3" at BOS for now, with small chances of reaching 3-6" territory. We'd need massive changes, Miami Dolphins style miracle, for anything different. I would take the over at Jerry's house. At Logan, not sure...but mostly due to the guy measuring. 3-6" seems like a good bet for the city proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can't take the Ukie solution too seriously right now. I mean, that's way east of other guidance. For now, I'm assuming he had a few bloody marys for breakfast to shake off last night's bender. everything is trending toward the UKIE, there is no phase with the TPV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS could easily see 6"+....a lot of guidance already gives that to them. I just don't have the confidence in talking about a number like that yet. Yesterday's ensembles were so far inland. They look better today but would like to see some semblance of consistency. I feel like it could bounce right back north, amped, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I would love a UK solution. Lets hope the Euro went to the same bar and Unc bought the King shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's outside the BM as you look closer, Jimmy would get his snow though Que up MPM and his QPF concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's outside the BM as you look closer, Jimmy would get his snow though Anyone got the soundings for ukmet. That looks good for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: There's a massive lack of consensus here. Low confidence in any particular model. Taking a peek at the overall look, I'd have 1-3" at BOS for now, with small chances of reaching 3-6" territory. We'd need massive changes, Miami Dolphins style miracle, for anything different. what? 1-3? seems very low unless the BL torches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The Ukie has been the only model consistently offshore. It just isn't buying these onshore and hugger solutions. I expect to see the Euro move SE towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I would love a UK solution. Lets hope the Euro went to the same bar and Unc bought the King shots Now i know that the second wave, I would see no snow if that was the first one on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Right now based on what I've see for this 12Z suite, outside the GFS, is everything generally went colder. Exact Thermal profiles can be studied in depth later. Need to see the "Big Boy" Euro to see if this trend is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 For everyone saying that the cold won't be pushed around and no storm is going to barrel into it and through it, the 12z ukie pretty much illustrates this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 so this might slip OTS? I don't mean entirely, but more offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: what? 1-3? seems very low unless the BL torches Be more worried about mid levels. The upper is fine, the BL are ok. But Mid levels will truely decide what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GEFS look juicy still 2"+ over a wide area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: But it didn't. It went east which is better for us southerners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I would love a UK solution. Lets hope the Euro went to the same bar and Unc bought the King shots Wait, that low on UKMET that's out past the Benchmark gets that much QPF up north? Something seems fishy (pun maybe?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Wait, that low on UKMET that's out past the Benchmark gets that much QPF up north? Something seems fishy (pun maybe?) It looks like the front stalls around the south coast of New England to get that much QPF in the area, with a low track east of the benchmark, that might be the follow-up wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wait, that low on UKMET that's out past the Benchmark gets that much QPF up north? Something seems fishy (pun maybe?) If you remember what Will stated, about 36-48 hours before go time you will see precipitation values become much more realitic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wait, that low on UKMET that's out past the Benchmark gets that much QPF up north? Something seems fishy (pun maybe?) Like i said, I think its the follow up on the front, There is 24hrs between panels, No way if that tracked out there we would not be seeing even that qpf here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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