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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT


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Just now, dryslot said:

Could even argue a tic or so SE.

Yeah maybe a hair SE...but for all intents and purposes, it was basically the same. Anything under a 25 mile shift is mostly model noise at this point...you could prob even argue 50 miles is model noise right now considering we're still 3.5-4 days out.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah maybe a hair SE...but for all intents and purposes, it was basically the same. Anything under a 25 mile shift is mostly model noise at this point...you could prob even argue 50 miles is model noise right now considering we're still 3.5-4 days out.

Exactly, These 25-50 mi tics have larger implications in SNE then up here at this point, Really it would be mainly snow if its more SE or snow/sleet if its NW up here.

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Just now, Greg said:

Will, the GFS used to be decent within these ranges, what happened?

I dunno if I would agree with that...GFS has aways had its issues...and especially with what I'm mentioning about the sfc temps. It just doesn't know how to handle CAD very well. We have an arctic banana high to our N&NW with a low center tracking over LI and SE MA (even on that more amped run, that's where it tracks)....yet, it is trying to rip 50F to ORH. It's so bad. The flow is just way too geostrophic in the low levels.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I dunno if I would agree with that...GFS has aways had its issues...and especially with what I'm mentioning about the sfc temps. It just doesn't know how to handle CAD very well. We have an arctic banana high to our N&NW with a low center tracking over LI and SE MA (even on that more amped run, that's where it tracks)....yet, it is trying to rip 50F to ORH. It's so bad. The flow is just way too geostrophic in the low levels.

I've also noticed it tends to be too diffuse with the low center. For example it has a pretty broad swath of SE winds over CT as the low is close to the Sound. In reality the higher res models will show one hell of a front right along I-95 and everyone to the north will be ripping northerlies. They're all sort of tied in I guess - another reason why the GFS struggles with the low level thermals. 

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Just now, CT Rain said:

I've also noticed it tends to be too diffuse with the low center. For example it has a pretty broad swath of SE winds over CT as the low is close to the Sound. In reality the higher res models will show one hell of a front right along I-95 and everyone to the north will be ripping northerlies. They're all sort of tied in I guess - another reason why the GFS struggles with the low level thermals. 

Right...it has these big diffuse rounded isobars around the low when in reality, you know those isobars are going to be very jagged looking with a huge CAD sig over the interior and bagginess extending to the east over toward the LI-Cape Cod corridor...ad those big diffuse isbars totally screw with the wind direction which causes the temps to be way off.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Right...it has these big diffuse rounded isobars around the low when in reality, you know those isobars are going to be very jagged looking with a huge CAD sig over the interior and bagginess extending to the east over toward the LI-Cape Cod corridor...ad those big diffuse isbars totally screw with the wind direction which causes the temps to be way off.

That makes a lot of sense, thanks to you and Ryan for the explanation on that stuff.  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right...it has these big diffuse rounded isobars around the low when in reality, you know those isobars are going to be very jagged looking with a huge CAD sig over the interior and bagginess extending to the east over toward the LI-Cape Cod corridor...ad those big diffuse isbars totally screw with the wind direction which causes the temps to be way off.

Also, with the upper level forcing the way it is... the GFS wants to tuck that low ashore near HVN. Guarantee you the better models (with higher resolution) would stick it over Long Island. Doesn't seem like a big deal but shove that coastal front 20 or 25 miles south and it's a big sensible wx difference over SNE. 

 

If the best UL is over Albany or Syracuse then it doesn't matter... but in this case it does.

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27 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Throw a shop light under the engine cover.  Incandescent of course!

Yeah I plan to do that or to just run an extension cord out and blast a space heater at the engine block for a little while.....assuming I can't get it going.  Its a 2018 brand new Kubota and I winterized the fuel and it has glow plugs so theres a decent chance it'll start up right away but I dont like the idea of my first sub-zero start attempt to be with a huge volume or snow and ice on the ground, haha

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Just now, Tiktock said:

Yeah I plan to do that or to just run an extension cord out and blast a space heater at the engine block for a little while.....assuming I can't get it going.  Its a 2018 brand new Kubota and I winterized the fuel and it has glow plugs so theres a decent chance it'll start up right away but I dont like the idea of my first sub-zero start attempt to be with a huge volume or snow and ice on the ground, haha

You should be good if it has glow plugs, Of course a little ether never hurts...............:)

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4 minutes ago, Greg said:

We generally want this cnter to go about a good 35-40 miles south of Long Island and the Cape to be in goood shape.  Still time for that to happpen but still concerned.

Are you talking just for snow?....this low could go over SE MA and you would't sniff freezing in this setup....but you might be ice and not snow at that point.

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Looks like a mess here. Snow to sleet/frzr to rain and maybe back to something wintery before it all turns into a solid block. Unless, of course, we do get a punch of warm air and it is mostly rain. 

Given up on any all/mostly snow solution here. But nothing to say the ground isn't white with something on Monday morning

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Are you talking just for snow?....this low could go over SE MA and you would't sniff freezing in this setup....but you might be ice and not snow at that point.

For a mostly snow, yes.  But boy I will take sleet over freezing rain (Ice) any day. Thank you.

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Just now, weathafella said:

CMC went slightly se, if uncle is sober that’s a nice look.  I’m tossing the stupid gfs.

Can't take the Ukie solution too seriously right now. I mean, that's way east of other guidance.

For now, I'm assuming he had a few bloody marys for breakfast to shake off last night's bender.

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