40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Latest trends are to limit phasing owed to compressed flow, and an encroaching PV. Its going to be fun few weeks. GO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Let’s talk QPF and snow from the EPS . Probabilities and percentile . These are extremely stout numbers for a mean of EPS. Read the labels for clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 25 mile south sag makes a big difference for the I84 corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 25 mile south sag makes a big difference for the I84 corridor. Yep so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Let’s talk QPF and snow from the EPS . Probabilities and percentile . These are extremely stout numbers for a mean of EPS. Read the labels for clarification So basically a very high % of a 1-100 year icestorm based on those progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Thank you, Ginx for posting those. I don't think they are on the free version anymore? Icing looks less significant in my area moving forward. I hadn't been thinking it would be big for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Thank you, Ginx for posting those. I don't think they are on the free version anymore? Icing looks less significant in my area moving forward. I hadn't been thinking it would be big for a while. Labs.weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hadn't been mentioned in a while but the FV3 is bullish for Ray's hood for a ton of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Labs.weathermodels.com Yeah... I will have to pony up for the subscription it seems. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Definitely a juicy system, though I'm a bit skeptical of 2"+ for QPF right now north of the low level warm front. But we've got big time gulf moisture fetch...like basically the entire length of the gulf. So this won't be the type of SWFE that is mostly N stream and gives 0.60-0.70" of QPF...I'd def expect more. We're also riding the WCB longer than a typical SWFE. More like 12-15 hours instead of 6-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Labs.weathermodels.com How much of that is zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 25 mile south sag makes a big difference for the I84 corridor. It is amazing how that road is a dividing line so many times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 NAM looks to be on the right trajectory, if not a bit south.. any worries about suppression still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definitely a juicy system, though I'm a bit skeptical of 2"+ for QPF right now north of the low level warm front. But we've got big time gulf moisture fetch...like basically the entire length of the gulf. So this won't be the type of SWFE that is mostly N stream and gives 0.60-0.70" of QPF...I'd def expect more. We're also riding the WCB longer than a typical SWFE. More like 12-15 hours instead of 6-8 hours. Yeah i would tend to label this a hybrid, Not the typical SWFE where you get 8-10" totals with a weenie 12" somewhere, I think we will see totals north of there with a longer duration waiting for the front to clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks to be on the right trajectory, if not a bit south.. any worries about suppression still? Suppression really isn't the problem... It's more of a fast flow/compression ...limiting stream interaction... Those key interactions (or not) will have an impact on where event profiles situate - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks to be on the right trajectory, if not a bit south.. any worries about suppression still? It’s on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: NAM looks to be on the right trajectory, if not a bit south.. any worries about suppression still? It’s north of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s north of 6z. i mean south from other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 How about the Euro with a -1F 2m temp at 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 btw ICON lead the way on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: btw ICON lead the way on this one It went back to an inland solution at 18z last night. Right before the other models trended away from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: i mean south from other models Yea true. Even at hr84 you can see the PV flex it’s muscles and shove the surface SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nam is so flat lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nam is also out to 84 hours. Take it more as a trend verses track at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 And out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nam is so flat lol. Take a look at 06z run...that was much flatter even....I wouldn't be surprised though at another tick south on globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is so flat lol. Watch this whole thing miss. Congrats DC? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: How about the Euro with a -1F 2m temp at 18z Monday. Ginxy has been tooting that for a bit Def a cold look on many models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is so flat lol. Big time SSS at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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