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January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential


Hoosier
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Key thing to watch today is the surface low position and strength compared to 12z guidance. According to our latest MSAS analysis, surface low center is at 1003 mb east of LBB Texas with pressure trough extending northeast into Kansas, 1006 mb to ICT area.

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

12z HRRR keeps the freezing line wavering over mby for hours. Going to be quite the nail biter, as minor temp flux’s either way will drastically change local effects 

With the way things have been trending it’ll hopefully set up just south. I mean 12 hours ago the freezing line was modeled to be in southern Wisconsin at that point so we take what we can get lol. The 12z NAM should be interesting 

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Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

12z HRRR keeps the freezing line wavering over mby for hours. Going to be quite the nail biter, as minor temp flux’s either way will drastically change local effects 

25, heck 10 miles will make a huge difference in parts of extreme NE IL.

I am 15 miles west of you, if I had to guess now both of us end up with an icy sloppy mess for most of this followed by 2 inches of snow and the tail end. Basically icing on the cake to give a fluffy snow layer to the cement that will form.

Anyway, we should know by mid afternoon areas that are trending cooler/warmer than expected.

This is one of those days where comparing model positions makes all the difference to the Nowcast:

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Key thing to watch today is the surface low position and strength compared to 12z guidance. According to our latest MSAS analysis, surface low center is at 1003 mb east of LBB Texas with pressure trough extending northeast into Kansas, 1006 mb to ICT area.

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Ill be following SE MI closely tonight. The models have shifted just enough now that were going to get everything in the GTA. Looks like a widespread 2-3" snow followed by several hours of freezing rain followed by about 8-12 hours above 32F.  The local media isnt discussing this system at all and since the forecast says 40F and rain during the day the public doesnt seem aware that tomorrow mornings commute is snow and freezing rain. Should be interesting 

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NAM still looks a few degrees too cold
Surface temps not a big deal IMO, surface low track and strength is more important. We've clouded up, so temp rise will be advection driven over deep snowpack. Surface freezing line is way downstate still in central PAH CWA.

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39 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

25, heck 10 miles will make a huge difference in parts of extreme NE IL.

I am 15 miles west of you, if I had to guess now both of us end up with an icy sloppy mess for most of this followed by 2 inches of snow and the tail end. Basically icing on the cake to give a fluffy snow layer to the cement that will form.

Anyway, we should know by mid afternoon areas that are trending cooler/warmer than expected.

This is one of those days where comparing model positions makes all the difference to the Nowcast:

Will have to see if there is a difference that sets up just in the distance from Elgin to Cary

 

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Didn't realize that LOT issued a warning overnight for the NW part of the FA, including Rockford.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
324 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...Freezing Rain and Snow Expected Today into Wednesday Morning...

ILZ003-004-008-221800-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WW.Y.0005.190122T1500Z-190123T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0003.190122T1500Z-190123T1800Z/
Winnebago-Boone-Ogle-
Including the cities of Rockford, Belvidere, and Oregon
324 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected through Wednesday morning, mixing
  with freezing rain this afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 7 inches expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one
  tenth of an inch expected this afternoon.

* WHERE...Winnebago, Boone and Ogle Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to noon CST Wednesday.

 

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