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January 21-24 Winter Storm Potential


Hoosier
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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

You look pretty golden out there as things stand right now. I think this is not done trending yet, but you should do well even if it trends a bit more south and east.

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Wonder how far it’ll go. Wouldn’t take much more of a shift to include more of the northern parts of the area in an area of possibly significant snow, would really be interesting if it keeps trending 

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Wonder how far it’ll go. Wouldn’t take much more of a shift to include more of the northern parts of the area in an area of possibly significant snow, would really be interesting if it keeps trending 
Will check them out in morning but would be nice to see a southern lean in EPS to possibly foretell another shift in next cycle. As it looks now, I'd imagine midnight shift at my office will be considering going to a warning for parts of northern CWA.

Also FWIW, 00z Euro has an axis of about 0.3" ice from near SQI to RPJ to just northwest of ORD to near UGN. 12z run had no ice accums in northern IL. Another thing to consider in headline decisions with 0.25"+ being threshold for warning for ice accums.

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Will check them out in morning but would be nice to see a southern lean in EPS to possibly foretell another shift in next cycle. As it looks now, I'd imagine midnight shift at my office will be considering going to a warning for parts of northern CWA.

Also FWIW, 00z Euro has an axis of about 0.3" ice from near SQI to RPJ to just northwest of ORD to near UGN. 12z run had no ice accums in northern IL. Another thing to consider in headline decisions with 0.25"+ being threshold for warning for ice accums.

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Wouldn’t take much for ice accretion with temps so low. Could end up being interesting depending on how high the surface temp actually gets. 

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Will check them out in morning but would be nice to see a southern lean in EPS to possibly foretell another shift in next cycle. As it looks now, I'd imagine midnight shift at my office will be considering going to a warning for parts of northern CWA.

Also FWIW, 00z Euro has an axis of about 0.3" ice from near SQI to RPJ to just northwest of ORD to near UGN. 12z run had no ice accums in northern IL. Another thing to consider in headline decisions with 0.25"+ being threshold for warning for ice accums.

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Good to know, thank you for the info, always very much appreciated. 

If the trend continues you’ll be the one seeing the 0.25”+ of ice...or heck maybe even JOT will be :D

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One thing about the Kuchera euro snow map.  It has 10 inches in Cedar Rapids.  However, the actual precip is only 0.60".  We would need a pretty high ratio to reach 10 inches.  If we do get 0.60" precip, I'd be more comfortable guessing 6-8 inches of snow.

The track is just fine now.  I wouldn't mind if the strength ramped up a bit more.

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Yikes, just woke up to peak at the overnight data. Now looking more and more like a Icy mess today for the QCA with a bit of everything, followed by a few inches of wet snow overnight into Wednesday morning. 

00z Euro now popping out 4"+ for the QC, although I would be inclined to believe more of a 1"-3" for the Metro itself, after a decent frz. rain and sleet early event. Just a mess.

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Working up in Milwaukee today. Love the trends and thinking a midday precip start will yield a wintry drive home whether that be 43 or 94 south toward the border. After that - will we stay all snow on the northern tier is the beautiful nowcast question.

Quick mention in the LOT AFD on their contemplated inclusion of McHenry in the WSW was a sign things have trended positive. Nice little about face shaping up - fingers crossed the local sled trails are on their way to a half-foot refresher.

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33 minutes ago, King James said:

Wife has a conference in the Loop (Chicago) today and ends at 4:30pm. We are down in eastern Kankakee county. I know you all can only answer the best you can, but is this a situation where I should be getting her a hotel room? She will be driving

Think we are pretty much in the clear here are far as any wintry precipitation, but heavy rain will be a concern. Just to our north will be a different story. Probably best to play it safe for her. :)

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48 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

Actually concerned that I’ll be missed to the south today. It’s almost inconceivable that the 12z runs yesterday were showing sleet/rain here and not a lot of snow. 

I don’t know how he did it, but this is all @cyclone77‘s fault. 

It’s a little weird and scary. We are in the bullseye now but it’s a skinny swath 

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