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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weekies roll the ugly pattern forward until it's perfect...at the end of Feb. Honestly, they aren't that bad in general but considering how terrible they've done this year, i really reallllly DGAF what they show. 

Weeklies do exactly what they have all winter. Start to transition to great as soon as their outside range of believable. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Weeklies do exactly what they have all winter. Start to transition to great as soon as their outside range of believable. 

This has been a horrendous year for d10+ global ensembles and bottom basement abysmal for weekly and monthly guidance. I've never seen this level of universal agreememt at times bust massively every time. 

18z gefs just nailed it though. Get ready for no sleep and lots of shoveling. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Anyone who has weatherbell needs to check out the 18z gefs ens member ptype plots d10-16. There's plenty of spread but there's also plenty of Feb 2010 storm tracks... oh man what a synoptic weenie run. 

Hah...always one step ahead.  Definitely no shortage of big precip makers in there.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Weeklies do exactly what they have all winter. Start to transition to great as soon as their outside range of believable. 

Time to retire the weeklies, what value do they provide anyways.

psu sorry, I did my best to get you some goods news today, but no luck. 

Even the long range guys are about to call it a no go. Guess they came over to your side. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This has been a horrendous year for d10+ global ensembles and bottom basement abysmal for weekly and monthly guidance. I've never seen this level of universal agreememt at times bust massively every time. 

18z gefs just nailed it though. Get ready for no sleep and lots of shoveling. 

Maybe. Maybe not. I’ve been as clear as I can be I’m not ruling out an epic recovery or fail. I won’t be shocked at either. 

Whats clear to me is the guidance has incredible divergence and is flipping around wildly right now.  The ridge is coming next week but after Feb 7 it could go either way.  

My theiry is there are conflicting signals. I can see some of them. The qbo and sswe conflict. The mjo has been in conflict with the sst. Even without a nino the sst isn’t in a configuration that supports the mjo signature we’ve had. The sst in the northeast pac conflicts with the sst in the northwest pac. There could be more I can’t see. But my idea is that these mixed signals are driving guidance crazy because which one takes slightly higher influence can shift the pattern wildly one way or the other. 

With the mjo is ape amp it was running the show. But now it’s either heading for 8 or likely dying. If the mjo comes off and all those conflicting signals have to fight it out it might be impossible for guidance to figure out. Add in unprecedented pac wide warmth and the models are clueless at range. 

Thats my theory to what’s going on but none of that gives any freaking idea which way this goes. People are under the impression I’m upset. Im not. I’m not happy. I want snow. And I hate being wrong and this winter has made a fool out of me for sure. But being humbled is good for me. I’m just at the idgaf stage like you and I’m rolling with it. When I see something good I’ll say so. If it’s bad I’ll say so. But I have no good feel for where we’re going. But we will know....

in 2 weeks. 

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Wasn't there conversation the last few years about how poorly the weeklies were performing? And yet this year we jumped on them like a fat kid on a cake

Ehh they came to my forecast. I never based anything on them.  I busted not them. Their just Uber weenie unicorn maps. 

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Wasn't there conversation the last few years about how poorly the weeklies were performing? And yet this year we jumped on them like a fat kid on a cake

Yes but we had universal consensus... weeklies, cfs weeklies and monthlies, euro seasonal, cansips, jamstec, etc. You name it and it showed the same thing. Nobody who looks at this stuff (even pros) would just toss all that data just cuz. I don't think I've ever seen this kind of universal agreement basically ever. It's hard not to take all that seriously and think that it will be at least in the ballpark of right. Maybe it is right but just missed the timing. Gefs is coming around to the idea and even the eps to an extent. 

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Actually saw some good improvements with both the EPS and the GEFS overnight. (using 5 day means below)

Below are the 00Z EPS and 12Z respectively. Most notable are that we are now seeing a move to push the mean trough eastward. We are also seeing a breakdown of the higher heights in the east. Though there is more needed (especially shifting the ridging in the PAC eastward) this is a workable pattern, much more so then the 12Z.

00ZEPS

00zeps.gif.68d9dc4198551778c70ff5538b0ff8fc.gif

 

12Z EPS

12zeps.gif.bfcf0845d87372a01a96a3845c0614f1.gif

 

GEFS (same time frame as the EPS above) still has the better look though and that improved overnight from the 12z. The biggest improvements were seen with the western ridging and the weakening of the SW trough as well as a weakening of the higher heights in the east. The look below is actually pretty decent and would suggest possible over running/gradient system potential.

00Z GEFS

00zgefs.gif.950de392edf5a2a511a784eac258bf6b.gif

 

12Z GEFS

12zgefs.gif.d1012666cd1d86848a9feba271049060.gif

 

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