Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Gfs trying to bring back blocking. Never seen so much hl blocking with a zonal flow smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 00z has alot of hl blocking this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 24 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z has alot of hl blocking this run Yea but right when we finally get the NAO right look what it does with the tpv...right back over Alaska like December. hope the guidance doesn’t move that way. That’s textbook “how to ruin a block” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 UGH Gonna just ride the weeklies till winter ends in 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Looked at all the models....Tonight may have been the most disastrous run of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Only thing that was not disastrous was the rain that we are going to be getting here shortly and LR. Even if the GFS has something popping on the 29/30th it will end as a rain storm at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 So intuitively when the atmosphere is in regime change I would expect lots of volatility and model jumpiness. I seriously have no skill beyond living in this area for a long time and being an observer. In my brain I fully expected the period between January 20 and February 1 to be like a ping pong ball. We've scored twice we might snag one or two more....not big enough for some...but still. Now if by the weekend we don't start seeing some consistency then my head will allow me to begin to prepare for meh. I love the chase as much as anyone but as I've stated many times I'm in look out the window mode and I enjoy each event no matter how big or small. Not a popular opinion but it is called my opinion for a reason. Good luck Ji and psu....of everyone on here you guys deserve snow the most. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 At this point I cant see worrying over what any op or ensemble run is showing beyond day 10. It is pretty clear that there will be some reshuffling in the Pacific, probably at least partially MJO related, but for now it looks like it will be brief- maybe a week- and it is not a shutout look. The CFS weekly runs continue to support this idea, as did the EPS weeklies run from last night. So while the end of the current GEFS and EPS aren't depicting a great look in the EPAC, I will go with the idea that it may not even verify and/or will be a brief blip. Remember a few weeks back how the ensembles were advertising a continuation of the shutout PAC dominated pattern and it looked as though it would last until around now. But it didn't. And then it snowed on Jan 12th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Am I the only one concerned that guidance it retrograding the trough into the epo region which is exactly what happened in December the lest time the mjo spiked into phase 4? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: At this point I cant see worrying over what any op or ensemble run is showing beyond day 10. It is pretty clear that there will be some reshuffling in the Pacific, probably at least partially MJO related, but for now it looks like it will be brief- maybe a week- and it is not a shutout look. The CFS weekly runs continue to support this idea, as did the EPS weeklies run from last night. So while the end of the current GEFS and EPS aren't depicting a great look in the EPAC, I will go with the idea that it may not even verify and/or will be a brief blip. Remember a few weeks back how the ensembles were advertising a continuation of the shutout PAC dominated pattern and it looked as though it would last until around now. But it didn't. And then it snowed on Jan 12th. The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Not really all that concerned tbh. We still haven't hit best climo for snow around here....especially for the big ones and recent years have shown us that it can snow well into march. December and January and rarely big months for us, so expectations are usually kept in check. By my estimate, we still have about 8 weeks left to get accumulating snow. I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 LOL this thread is something else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: LOL this thread is something else. It's legit depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: It's legit depressing. Every day it's either "this is the greatest long range look ever" or "what a disaster." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. When psuhoffman is turning into Ji, it might be time to turn out the lights. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Am I the only one concerned that guidance it retrograding the trough into the epo region which is exactly what happened in December the lest time the mjo spiked into phase 4? I dont like it, and I haven't looked at the MJO forecasts since yesterday, but it looked like a faster progression and a weaker amplitude than last time, and it looked to head into the COD. I am hoping that the CFS/EPS weeklies have the right idea with the pattern progression, and that this reshuffle will be quick and then things get more favorable after that. My overall feeling about winter is that the Nino is a dud, which is 'allowing' the MJO to interfere more than it should. I am less confident about a legit -NAO developing because we really aren't in a Nino and it seems we rarely get it otherwise. Generally my expectations are lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL this thread is something else. Oh come on...they're just keeping it real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. HM and many experts busted...the weeklies have busted all year. What was supposed to be a magical period is turning into trying to fight for winter not being over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. I'm just going to wait and see. I don't have the energy to get worked up over it. I actually thought the previous 2 runs of the EPS looked pretty good at the end, and it didn't surprise me to see where the 0z run went with the TPV. Given where the MJO is now, I expect to see some less than ideal h5 looks on the guidance for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Every day it's either "this is the greatest long range look ever" or "what a disaster." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 We are back on for next week. Is only 7+ days away from being a legit hit. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Every day it's either "this is the greatest long range look ever" or "what a disaster." Blame it on the models....:) As we are becoming a society of instant gratification, we see/click something we see on the web, and we want/get it. While there is so much science that has done GREAT things in predicting, this year is a perfect example of how the weather is gonna do what its gonna do...no matter the advancements. That why I love doing this, because there is no perfect algorithm, its not black and white/linear...whatever you wanna call it. Its a lot of great stuff that ends in a best guess. We may come to a day where thats no longer the case, but not likely while I'm still chasing. People need to sit back and chill, and not be JI jumpers, and as JB says...."enjoy the weather cause its the only weather you got." Models are a tool. Thats it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. HM and many experts busted...the weeklies have busted all year. What was supposed to be a magical period is turning into trying to fight for winter not being over. I have to agree with you to some degree Ji. (wrt model busts). See my post above. As hobbyists, that should be the fun in this, as we often dont REALLY know whats going to happen.....good or bad....snow or no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The weeklies age already invalid. Day 15 now looks nothing like Day 16 on the weeklies. And there was a lot of divergence within the weeklies when I looked at the members. Are people really feeling confident given the look or are they just trying not to be negative? Maybe I’m missing something. I hate the direction everything is going right now. Go back look at the last 3 runs of the EPS at D15. Same general look to me. All have the same idea with the TPV, and lowering heights over AK. Not sure the progression on the weeklies would look much different had they initialized off of the latest 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I dont like it, and I haven't looked at the MJO forecasts since yesterday, but it looked like a faster progression and a weaker amplitude than last time, and it looked to head into the COD. I am hoping that the CFS/EPS weeklies have the right idea with the pattern progression, and that this reshuffle will be quick and then things get more favorable after that. My overall feeling about winter is that the Nino is a dud, which is 'allowing' the MJO to interfere more than it should. I am less confident about a legit -NAO developing because we really aren't in a Nino and it seems we rarely get it otherwise. Generally my expectations are lower. I agree with all this but maybe that part bothers me more because I have serious doubts in our chances absent blocking. The epo ridge this year has centered itself along or off the west coast of Canada. For us to do well in an epo driven pattern without NAO help we need that centered in western Canada. There has been absolutely no hint of that all winter and so I doubt that suddenly changes. When we got chances were during transient blocking, even bootleg not true NAO blocking but convoluted flow to our north that acted like a block. That says there is potential here. That ridge alignment is bad without blocking but ideal if we get it. With -NAO you don’t want the western ridge too Far East or you get suppression. You want storms to “try to cut” in a blocking regime. But take away the NAO and they do cut. I feel like some are trying to “ make lemonade” out of this by saying “well it can still work without the nao” but I don’t think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: People need to sit back and chill, and not be JI jumpers, and as JB says...."enjoy the weather cause its the only weather you got." I’m very chill. At this moment I’m relaxing in a comfortable chair, drinking my coffee, enjoying a croissant, and preparing to grade midterm exam essays. I’m not distraught or running around pulling my hair out. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to blow smoke either. If I don’t like what I see I’m not going to lie and make up BS. If you want that watch a JB video. Im not throwing in the towel. Maybe guidance is wrong. But maybe it’s wrong isn’t good analysis and it doesn’t change my statement that I don’t like what I see. It could also be temporary and transition to a better look after. But man if we flood NAM with pac puke again in early February ugh. And that is speculation and not great analysis either. I’m just analyzing what I can see and I don’t like it. As for enjoy it...no thanks. I do not enjoy rain or dry cold. I have enough other things to enjoy in life that I can turn too that I don’t need to pretend to enjoy rain. We should be able to discuss bad trends and bad patterns without crazy emotional tantrums. Even in our snowiest winters it’s NOT snowing ~340 of the days in a year. How do these people survive if their entire emotional stability is tied to it snowing???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Go back look at the last 3 runs of the EPS at D15. Same general look to me. All have the same idea with the TPV, and lowering heights over AK. Not sure the progression on the weeklies would look much different had they initialized off of the latest 0z run. Latest eps is missing the Aleutian trough. That feature is what quickly helps flip the pattern back. Hope I’m wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with all this but maybe that part bothers me more because I have serious doubts in our chances absent blocking. The epo ridge this year has centered itself along or off the west coast of Canada. For us to do well in an epo driven pattern without NAO help we need that centered in western Canada. There has been absolutely no hint of that all winter and so I doubt that suddenly changes. When we got chances were during transient blocking, even bootleg not true NAO blocking but convoluted flow to our north that acted like a block. That says there is potential here. That ridge alignment is bad without blocking but ideal if we get it. With -NAO you don’t want the western ridge too Far East or you get suppression. You want storms to “try to cut” in a blocking regime. But take away the NAO and they do cut. I feel like some are trying to “ make lemonade” out of this by saying “well it can still work without the nao” but I don’t think it will. I'm sorry but the NAO is the new unicorn of weather. I'll take an -AO and roll em any time. -NAO has played less and less of a factor in our last few/many years, and is becoming harder to achieve. What are the reasons/mechanisms behind it... We can and will snow in less than perfect setups and with other indicies in our favor. We need to stop chasing the perfect pattern. It rarely exists. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with all this but maybe that part bothers me more because I have serious doubts in our chances absent blocking. The epo ridge this year has centered itself along or off the west coast of Canada. For us to do well in an epo driven pattern without NAO help we need that centered in western Canada. There has been absolutely no hint of that all winter and so I doubt that suddenly changes. When we got chances were during transient blocking, even bootleg not true NAO blocking but convoluted flow to our north that acted like a block. That says there is potential here. That ridge alignment is bad without blocking but ideal if we get it. With -NAO you don’t want the western ridge too Far East or you get suppression. You want storms to “try to cut” in a blocking regime. But take away the NAO and they do cut. I feel like some are trying to “ make lemonade” out of this by saying “well it can still work without the nao” but I don’t think it will. There is a reason I am not posting much in the other thread. We might get lucky and do the proverbial 'thread the needle', but outside of that, the next week or so is a continuation of mild cutters followed by cold/dry IMO. By the time we get cold solidly entrenched and shift the barocllinic zone, things are already transitioning to less favorable in the E/NPAC. So it looks like we have to fight that for the first week in Feb, then hopefully, maybe..per the CFS!!..the h5 pattern gets good for the next 4-6 weeks. You know how important I think the NAO is, esp for my location, but if the PAC is in fact in a brief reshuffle mode followed by a more favorable PNA/EPO combo, I still think odds are we also see some periods with enough blocking to get it done, even if its a transient deal. At this point I just want a workable pattern that can produce a couple snowstorms before mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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