January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[aldie 22]

Just now, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I like to look at it this way...if the atmosphere keeps showing us that it knows how to snow then I would prefer that to day after day of nada. Eventually something will pop.
 

Its snowed once this winter lol

Incorrect but you knew that

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the worst part of what's happened to our pattern is that we are not tracking s storm right now. I am not sure what we we are tracking lol

If all you look at is long range op runs then you're not seeing the forest through the trees. There will be multiple cold shots and active flow starting on Friday. 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the worst part of what's happened to our pattern is that we are not tracking s storm right now. I am not sure what we we are tracking lol

Come on Ji. You are WAY better than this. The upcoming pattern is active AF. Now will any of those be snow? I have no idea. But we have plenty of storms to track.

[Ji]

If all you look at is long range op runs then you're not seeing the forest through the trees. There will be multiple cold shots and active flow starting on Friday. 

It's not just OP runs. In fact the eps said no to the euro storm next weekend. There is some noise sure but there is not a legit threat we are tacking. Except for the rainstorm wed night

[Bob Chill]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Come on Ji. You are WAY better than this. The upcoming pattern is active AF. Now will any of those be snow? I have no idea. But we have plenty of storms to track.

He lives in a paradox. What he needs to see is op runs every 6 hours locking into a specific storm a week away or longer and never lose it. Which is impossible except for a few extremely rare storms. 

[Ji]

Incorrect but you knew that

Nov 15 is not winter. We had a snowstorm last week and a 2 hour event on Thursday. That's not an atmosphere that is always wanting to snow

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Incorrect but you knew that

Nov 15 is not winter. We had a snowstorm last week and a 2 hour event on Thursday. That's not an atmosphere that is always wanting to snow

I think your posts offend the atmosphere and make it not  want to snow

[yoda]

I see we are back to the Ji complaining tour

[Ji]

He lives in a paradox. What he needs to see is op runs every 6 hours locking into a specific storm a week away or longer and never lose it. Which is impossible except for a few extremely rare storms. 

I think I had just too much expectation for this pattern change. I think I need a day or so to reset my expectations and I'll be okay

[JakkelWx]

BUT wait... there is hope

 

[Snowstorm5921]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

BUT wait... there is hope

 

And if not then, definitely in March!!

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

And if not then, definitely in March!!

Hopefully there is a snowstorm that drops 0 inches for you and we get 2 feet in February 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

BUT wait... there is hope

 

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Incorrect but you knew that

Nov 15 is not winter. We had a snowstorm last week and a 2 hour event on Thursday. That's not an atmosphere that is always wanting to snow

Your standards are pretty ridiculous but...you knew that. Its almost like you're a cartoon character. I know you're a good guy but sometimes your weather character is challenging 

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

Good point.  I would say that the only thing we really have confidence in right now is it will be cold for the next two weeks on average.  It may snow, it may not.  -NAO, may appear, it may not.  It's a frustrating state to be in for sure.

[Ji]

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

I was thinking same thing. I don't think anyone has a good handle on the pattern. Everytime something they have a clue...the opposite happens. Mjo is stronger than expected. A nao showing within 5 days disappear. The polar vortex split weeks ago and they cant even get it to snow in Boston in late January. HM thought a midwest blizzard would change the Nao...nothing. And the snowstorm we got showed up during Bob's meltdown window. The models are the drivers of forecasting and nobody can predict the models

[Ji]

Your standards are pretty ridiculous but...you knew that. Its almost like you're a cartoon character. I know you're a good guy but sometimes your weather character is challenging 

It's only here lol. Dont know what it is about this place. That's why I'm only in here 3 months a year

[clskinsfan]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

Exactly. We are heading into a very active pattern. Short lead times will be the norm for the next month or so. And I am fine with that. That is what makes tracking winter weather so fun IMO.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

Only thing I have been pretty confident in lately is that the recently modeled epic -NAO on the GFS would likely be underwhelming in reality. Legit NA blocking is seemingly a myth until proven otherwise- verified in real time. 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

And if not then, definitely in March!!

Didn’t you get 40” of snow last March from a -NAO  

 

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, frd said:

@JakkelWx

HM talking about the lack of a powerful system this week just ended,  which was needed and expected to help turn the NAO to negative. 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

This discussion was really enlightening. It doesn’t get at causality but perhaps we are looking at it from as the pattern drives the Synoptics but in this case a synoptic fail lead to a pattern fail. It’s true the runs that jumped on the NAO did so by amplifying the trough this week. That undercut the war and retrograded it into the NAO.  

Suddenly there was a trend toward a less amplified wave and suddenly no NAO. Instead the whole PV pinwheels and retrogrades into western Canada. 

The muted NAO is what went wrong. The guidance was sending some pac energy crashing into the west but before with a perfect block that was forced to undercut and it was a good thing. With less blocking it becomes problematic. 

 

[poolz1]

Nobody knows...but you can hedge your bets.  If what you are looking for is either epic or fail....you are bound to be disappointed. As others have stated...tropical forcing has ruled so far.  It's almost Feb and there is no reason to think that will change, imo. 

There are other drivers that can either mitigate or accentuate the effects from tropical forcing and we have a sswe to help us in this MJO tour of the warm phases.  I think this should be enough to stave off any idea of a shutout.  IF the MJO has it's way...combined with the effects from the sswe I would think we have 2 weeks of a serviceable pattern and then 2 weeks of a pretty darn good pattern. 

I love tracking and speculating on systems <10 days...just throwing out some thoughts in the uber lr 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At this point this winter i don't think anyone knows where it's going. I've seen hundreds of intelligently written posts and tweets this year and nothing has gone as expected

I was thinking same thing. I don't think anyone has a good handle on the pattern. Everytime something they have a clue...the opposite happens. Mjo is stronger than expected. A nao showing within 5 days disappear. The polar vortex split weeks ago and they cant even get it to snow in Boston in late January. HM thought a midwest blizzard would change the Nao...nothing. And the snowstorm we got showed up during Bob's meltdown window. The models are the drivers of forecasting and nobody can predict the models

This...  and it might also be related to the collapse of the enso. Typically the mjo is muted in a nino as forcing is more enso focused.  I was totally wrong about the mjo.  If you had told me back in November the mjo was going to have a record strong slow wave through warm phases and then after a week in cold phases go right back and repeat...I would have told you we were in big trouble. 

[psuhoffman]

For the record I don’t think things look bad I’m just discussing why they don’t look like was advertised. 

Also...I’ve heard “we only talk about the mjo when things aren’t going well”. Yea. Because when things are good we don’t bother looking at why it’s good or Uber long range mjo trends to see when it will end. We are too busy tracking threats and measuring snow to worry about it. When they are bad we have way more time to look into what’s wrong since there are no threats to track. 

[mattie g]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This...  and it might also be related to the collapse of the enso. Typically the mjo is muted in a nino as forcing is more enso focused.  I was totally wrong about the mjo.  If you had told me back in November the mjo was going to have a record strong slow wave through warm phases and then after a week in cold phases go right back and repeat...I would have told you we were in big trouble. 

Bob thinks we’re in big trouble.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This...  and it might also be related to the collapse of the enso. Typically the mjo is muted in a nino as forcing is more enso focused.  I was totally wrong about the mjo.  If you had told me back in November the mjo was going to have a record strong slow wave through warm phases and then after a week in cold phases go right back and repeat...I would have told you we were in big trouble. 

Just a guess but I think the nino may have been doomed from the beginning. If you only look at enso regions it looks ok. But when you pan out and look at the entire Pac it doesn't look good. Especially back in Dec. No typical +PDO and pretty much sprawling + sstas everywhere. Iirc, every nino that did well here had a +pdo. That should have been an early flag. Other than an active southern stream, this nino has not behaved like one at all. There's never even been an aleutian trough of consequence. 

The neg pna showing up is the final straw for me if it verifies. Nobody saw that coming. Not even a peep. So I'll throw up the white flag and concede that i have no idea where we go from here. Every model and its mom had a neg nao building and also a +pna. Complete uniform agreement. Now that is all changing. Delayed but not denied? Maybe but I no longer trust a single piece of guidance, tweet, or post about what to expect more than 10 days down the line.

Sometimes long lead stuff fits the collective thoughts and model output. And sometimes weather makes everyone look like they don't know S. This year clearly fits the nobody or weather model knows S about where we go from here. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Bob thinks we’re in big trouble.

I don't think that at all actually. Copious cold is building in north america in the mid range and we're in calendar prime time. As long as that keeps up we'll get our shots. If the pac jet comes back and blasts the continent it's probably over. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about getting some snow in the next 10 days or so. 

[Bob Chill]

Our region needs a neg ao more than a neg nao. I can't stress this enough. 2 legit neg AO periods since Nov and we scored in both. The nao may not be a beast or build at all but a -AO looks to build in the med range and potentially stick around for a while. As long as that happens in some fashion we'll likely remain in the game for the foreseeable future. 

[mattie g]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I don't think that at all actually. Copious cold is building in north america in the mid range and we're in calendar prime time, As long as that keeps up we'll get our shots. If the pac jet comes back and blasts the continent it's probably over. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about getting some snow in the next 10 days or so. 

I’m just taking your words, twisting them, and yanking your chain.

I don’t know enough to even make an educated guess at what will happen. I just know that seeing the uniform agreement on the building heights in the AO and NAO regions suddenly start buckling at the knees has me frustrated, as I’m sure it does everyone else.

We’re ahead of climo at this point. I’ll take that all day. But it’s all about where we get our next hit. And some are fearing we’ll need to go for the low-end stuff to appease us.

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

As far as the -Nao . OP Euro ..for example isn't far off from creating a nice one . I know it's a day 8 op but just for fun you can see in my etch a sketch drawing that if the coastal is strong it will pump up higher hieghts in the Atlantic and if the PV in central Canada is only displaced southwest a bit the Atlantic rigding would easily be forced into the beloved Nao region ..I know ..a couple ifs...but I think this is one way I can see it getting there per this op run

. 

Probably why the NAO region is so difficult to predict. Individual storm progressions can change the NAO forecast greatly..per HM's discussion.  The AO is more big feature/forcing related and therefore more predictable and stable.