Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 500mb looks really nice. The fast flow could end up hurting us though. I’ve been tracking this time frame for a few days now and the one negative we could potentially run into is kicker problems....This looks like a Miller A/B hybrid to me, but idk. Yea man....such a fast mover....not the classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Just now, Bob Chill said: Kuchera. I'd hit 20"+ ytd before Feb. Very tricky setup. We'll get the kitchen sink thrown at us next couple days me thinks Driest 981 Miller a in history lol Don't worry. Euro is setting up a gradient overrunning event d9. Weenie run from dr no. Sucks that winter is cancelled first week of feb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Not necessarily speaking about the size of the precip shield but qpf shouldn't be an issue where ever it ends up. Look at the feed right out of the tropics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Just now, Bob Chill said: Kuchera. I'd hit 20"+ ytd before Feb. Very tricky setup. We'll get the kitchen sink thrown at us next couple days me thinks Driest 981 Miller a in history lol Lol ya, probably because of the fast flow like I said....FV3 looks very similar at H5 but it also has a very tight precip field. Just something to keep an eye on at this point. I dont have precip, but 216 hrs looks like it was setting up an overrunning event fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 So it looks like no 1985 cold. I'll take my chances with less cold and more storms even if one is a mix. Dry and bitter is worst outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 When do we start talking about how this will fail....oh wait...now I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 There is a train of strong Pac storms following that hit on the Euro. One after another. Could be an epic Jan/Feb if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: When do we start talking about how this will fail....oh wait...now I guess This one should be fun from a psychological perspective. We're going to see big hits, total whiffs, no storm at all, and everything in between on op runs coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Lol....a very unweeklies day 10 rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 You guys have the euro clown map for the northeast to 240hrs? Thanks in advance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This one should be fun from a psychological perspective. We're going to see big hits, total whiffs, no storm at all, and everything in between on op runs coming up. We don't do psychological very well. Welcome to meltdown city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Lol....a very unweeklies day 10 rain event With a 1035 in se canada i'll go with mixed event. Maybe a glacier event with snow on the ground. Unless you can't see past verbatim op panels d9+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 There is a train of strong Pac storms following that hit on the Euro. One after another. Could be an epic Jan/Feb if it works out.Epic epo...but nao looks neutral. Need better or we will have to fight se ridge and gradient. This is not pattern we were expecting to walk into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: Epic epo...but nao looks neutral. Need better or we will have to fight se ridge and gradient. This is not pattern we were expecting to walk into It really is shocking that d10 might be different than we thought. That never happens 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: On the 2nd map you can see why the precip shield isnt as explosive as it could have been. Low is just NE of NC, but look at how widespread the pressure falls are NE of the low. Kind of think of it it like a top spinning (the L) at the end of a pendulum. The Pendulum (trough) is headed E while the energy rounded the base is trying to spin up a low as fast as possible. In a situation like this if the energy rounding the base of the trough cant develop a low fast enough the pendulum just kicks everything NE quickly. Idk....hard to explain without using professional met. Lingo lol.... I’d be curious to see 250-300mb jet during this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: There is a train of strong Pac storms following that hit on the Euro. One after another. Could be an epic Jan/Feb if it works out. Epic epo...but nao looks neutral. Need better or we will have to fight se ridge and gradient. This is not pattern we were expecting to walk into Obviously way out there so not that concerned. Plenty of cold air to work with. Obviously we could have timing issues. But a great epo and ao modeled there. Combine that with the number and strength of those storms and I will take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: When do we start talking about how this will fail....oh wait...now I guess 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol....a very unweeklies day 10 rain event 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: There is a train of strong Pac storms following that hit on the Euro. One after another. Could be an epic Jan/Feb if it works out. Epic epo...but nao looks neutral. Need better or we will have to fight se ridge and gradient. This is not pattern we were expecting to walk into Started... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Just now, Grothar of Herndon said: Started... The fact that Ji is depressed after potentially getting another warning level event is strange. It's not like he made a public forecast for a huge snow winter or anything... wait a minute... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Cracks me up that people are whining about the pattern in 10 days. I guess that they don’t realize that we are actually in a pattern right now that has opportunities in the short range to see winter weather. Areas of the forum got over a foot of snow last week. Areas north and west picked up a sloppy inch or two last night. We’ve got 1-2 chances at wintry weather over the next week. Hopefully, everyone doesn’t get to the first or second week in February and miss the “good pattern” that is actually happening now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: There is a train of strong Pac storms following that hit on the Euro. One after another. Could be an epic Jan/Feb if it works out. Epic epo...but nao looks neutral. Need better or we will have to fight se ridge and gradient. This is not pattern we were expecting to walk into Weren’t we just worried about the return of the nasty Pacific jet? I’ll take a huge -EPO over that any day. Very Feb 2015ish tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The fact that Ji is depressed after potentially getting another warning level event is strange. It's not like he made a public forecast for a huge snow winter or anything... wait a minute...Not depressed man....its been a very uneven winter. We have had one storm since met winter started and it's almost February. And now the data is backing off the great looks we are seeing and we dealing with mixed events when I expected feb 2003 at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The fact that Ji is depressed after potentially getting another warning level event is strange. It's not like he made a public forecast for a huge snow winter or anything... wait a minute... Not depressed man....its been a very uneven winter. We have had one storm since met winter started and it's almost February. And now the data is backing off the great looks we are seeing and we dealing with mixed events when I expected feb 2003 at some point How much snow would make you happy? And why aren't you more content with what you've gotten so far? (you almost have twice as much as some of us, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I think we need snowcover with Stratosphere warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The fact that Ji is depressed after potentially getting another warning level event is strange. It's not like he made a public forecast for a huge snow winter or anything... wait a minute... Not depressed man....its been a very uneven winter. We have had one storm since met winter started and it's almost February. And now the data is backing off the great looks we are seeing and we dealing with mixed events when I expected feb 2003 at some point I never expected a big winter. My original contest guess was sub climo but edited at the last minute because the AO was negative. That lasted 45 minutes before going positive. The nino never looked like it was going moderate and now it may not even hit weak. Without a mod nino our area is hit and miss. So if anything, this winter is going exactly like what you would expect for warm neutral or weak nino. We actually stand a really good chance at topping climo at the airports and in our yards. If that isn't good or satisfying then you should consider moving to where snow is more common or giving up the hobby alltogether. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 12z GEFS was a weenie run. It’s a weird convoluted pattern but it aims wave after wave at us with cold around. Ok back to shredding the pow pow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I think we need snowcover with Stratosphere warming. Randy thinks you need to shut up 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How much snow would make you happy? And why aren't you more content with what you've gotten so far? (you almost have twice as much as some of us, lol) Ji was complaining in 09/10. It is just what he does. I have been watching his meltdowns for a decade and a half at this point. It isnt winter without them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Eps not enthused with the sun/mon coastal. Favors east/ots for now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 41 minutes ago, Fozz said: Weren’t we just worried about the return of the nasty Pacific jet? I’ll take a huge -EPO over that any day. Very Feb 2015ish tbh. A low parked over eastern WV is not a snow signal, IMO. That's a rain maker. Very depressing long term right now. Hope that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options? Yes. I suggested this earlier. A winter LR thread for tracking patterns, and a medium range thread for tracking threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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