Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
nj2va

January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

I would focus on whats in front of us. Its going to get pretty darn cold, and remain pretty active. Multiple chances over the next 10 days or so. 

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

  • Like 4
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The sickest part of that is we broke the record for longest stretch in phase 5 last month.  That would potentially rebreak it if it verified 

That would be a real bummer,  yet I read from one private MET that stated the SST profile around Aussie favored mostly the cold phases this year for us in the East. 

The opposite has happened so far.

Tip brought up the idea of a lack of gradient theory , I guess so much warmer waters out there, not sure that fits the issue at hand though with the MJO. 

I think he was referring maybe to the fast and powerful Pac Jet. How it was breaking down West Coast ridging.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

Maybe we need a medium range thread for discussing potential threats and a general long range winter discussion thread for pattern chasing. Having everything in this thread has caused it to become a clusterf*ck lately.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

Lol

Got all our bases covered on that one 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

We probably don’t go into anything close to December and early January anytime soon but we may go into a 1994 ordeal if those ideas beyond day 10-12 on the ensembles are correct where the AO is negative, NAO is positive and then you need to hope the EPO cooperates.  If it doesn’t then the -AO is more or less useless 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

 

Your post was good but was it so good you had to post it twice? :D

Connection issues up here. Sleet did make it to Killington. Got 14” first though. Hopefully it flips back soon. Pellets in the face is no fun. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

ambig.thumb.png.c0cae9b6dea4012f718a1a299ef9ff55.png

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

Hopefully its just a couple bad chili runs for the ensembles and not a trend. :yikes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing. 

Minus what looks like a fairly fast flow from the PAC, there’s some miller b potential there as it looks like we have a gradient that goes right above us, correct? West to east storm track

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's where I'm at. I only focus on 2 week leads when we are in a shutout pattern. Won't be the case later this week.

If the pac craps it craps. Maybe it doesn't crap. Or maybe it craps then wipes its ass shortly after and things are great again. Maybe we get 2 snow events before it's even a concern. Maybe the pac craps and we get a big fluke anyways. Or maybe winter is over on Feb 3rd. 

All of those scenarios have happened before and at least 8 others not mentioned so it’s a crap chute as to what happens. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hopefully its just a couple bad chili runs for the ensembles and not a trend. :yikes:

Don’t know.  But put me in the camp that thinks this is tropical forcing related. Every time that looks cooperative we get epic looking model runs. Then when that looks worse suddenly the pattern degrades. Seems an obvious link. 

Let me be clear the look isn’t a shutout and with cold around it likely will snow some even in that pattern but it’s a matter of expectations. That look is not what the analogs suggested and I’m not one that claims victory through the back door. If that is the actual pattern I busted. I don’t care if we get 50” that isn’t what I predicted. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z ICON looks a lil intriguing at the very end of its run h5-wise 

That looks like the seed being planted for a Miller A.  And in the right spot around NO.  Something to stick a pin on I suppose. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe we need a medium range thread for discussing potential threats and a general long range winter discussion thread for pattern chasing. Having everything in this thread has caused it to become a clusterf*ck lately.

Maybe we need a banter longrange thread. The long range and dicussing the pattern go hand in hand, to me at least.   

Discussing what is causing things to happen is part of learning and exchanging ideas. Those ideas help generate thoughts about the weather pattern in the long range.   I feel as long as you don't complain you are good, because that deserves to be put in banter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t know.  But put me in the camp that thinks this is tropical forcing related. Every time that looks cooperative we get epic looking model runs. Then when that looks worse suddenly the pattern degrades. Seems an obvious link. 

Let me be clear the look isn’t a shutout and with cold around it likely will snow some even in that pattern but it’s a matter of expectations. That look is not what the analogs suggested and I’m not one that claims victory through the back door. If that is the actual pattern I busted. I don’t care if we get 50” that isn’t what I predicted. 

I suppose there must be something to that. MJO is effing up Nino mojo.

As of a week ago, technically ENSO is still neutral, with now a 65% chance of an El Nino developing into Spring. Probably unlikely we would be seeing h5 panels like the one I posted for early Feb in a legit Nino.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Both the GFS and CMC lost the day 8 event.  Not surprising since the Pac look has degraded significantly.

If it comes back will you promise to leave and never come back? Better yet, no matter what happens you should stop visiting subs you don't live in and never come back. You make me want it to rain meteors in PA and that's not fair to all the good hearted people in your region.

  • Like 5
  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Lol

Got all our bases covered on that one 

Believe it or not, i don't really enjoy talking about d15 or monthly stuff. My favorite thing to discuss by a huge margin is a discrete threat. Unfortunately living in this region isn't very forgiving with the number of discrete threats in a season so by default I'm forced to talk about fantasyland. My instincts are telling me at least one discrete threat will materialize not too far in the future. Can't happen soon enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If it comes back will you promise to leave and never come back? Better yet, no matter what happens you should stop visiting subs you don't live in and never come back. You make me want it to rain meteors in PA and that's not fair to all the good hearted people in your region.

Raining meteors would be fantastic given the boredom since November.  Appreciate it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't be the only one who is seriously bummed we're going to go rain, bitter cold, and then more rain in a matter of 4 days. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can someone please build a digital wall to keep out the garbage posts from unwanted visitors. I’ll put in $5.70. :P

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

It basically ends winter.  No -NAO to speak of.  Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune!

 

3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

GFS flips the pac to garbage by day 12 just in time for another Rainer.  Damn MJO.

Lol! Are you sure you’re looking at the right model? I see three potential snow events and wall to wall cold on the 12z GFS. 

ETA: guess he’s just trolling pretty hard

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I can't be the only one who is seriously bummed we're going to go rain, bitter cold, and then more rain in a matter of 4 days. 

It is not an unusual winter weather pattern here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

it definitely earned some street creds from this past event.

 

Yeah...It did really well with 12/9 down here in RVA. I definitely doubted it until Euro jumped on about 12/7 or so. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snowstorm5921 said:

It basically ends winter.  No -NAO to speak of.  Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune!

An Op run? Cmon dude you are really getting on everyone’s nerves.  You got people looking for the ignore feature like it’s the last beer on earth.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×