CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The EPS is a bad model.. I think that can be determined by now. 1) Look at how low quality the maps are. 2)... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. absolutely. We all like the big ones, but I'll clip my way to climo. I'd think we get frequent visitors from Alberta. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: I think that was Feb 2015. But yes, great storm here. Dammit. Second time i've done that recently. I got a tablet for Christmas and i've been too lazy to stick all records and data from my PC to dropbox. I've been leaning on memory a lot and I aint no spring chicken so memory is getting fuzzy. Lol I really loved that event. Broke a big rule of thumb with vort/slp track. SNE can do well often with a nw track. Here? Nasomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dammit. Second time i've done that recently. I got a tablet for Christmas and i've been too lazy to stick all records and data from my PC to dropbox. I've been leaning on memory a lot and I aint no spring chicken so memory is getting fuzzy. Lol I really loved that event. Broke a big rule of thumb with vort/slp track. SNE can do well often with a nw track. Here? Nasomuch It was insanely cold prior to that storm. Many models called for rain several days out, and that would've been a heartbreak for a lot of us. But as you mentioned, the cold was so entrenched that the low was able to take what was normally a lousy track and still give us a pretty big snowstorm. That event changed my opinion of the whole winter. Great storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. I said this in banter earlier. If you truly like winter weather, and ya live in our region, then you take whatever comes, and you are totally happy with it. If Arctic air, and reinforcing shots of Arctic air is whats in the offing, then I will happily take a few skiffs of snow here and there, frozen rivers/ponds/bays, and enjoy the heck out of it. And odds are if we get an established "cold & dry" period, something bigger will come along. It happened last winter, but it was confined to the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: absolutely. We all like the big ones, but I'll clip my way to climo. I'd think we get frequent visitors from Alberta. Fine by me. My climo is right around 22-23". I'm at 15.3" on the year. One more moderate event in Jan and I'll be at my second highest ytd by the end Jan since i bought my house in spring 03. I may never beat the totals at the end of Jan 2010 so even being 2nd place is still impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Lot of moving pieces next sat/sun/mon. If any of them time up, someone on the east coast could get a big one. Gonna go out on a limb and say that eps/gefs start spitting out some crazy solutions in the next couple days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: I think that was Feb 2015. But yes, great storm here. 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dammit. Second time i've done that recently. I got a tablet for Christmas and i've been too lazy to stick all records and data from my PC to dropbox. I've been leaning on memory a lot and I aint no spring chicken so memory is getting fuzzy. Lol I really loved that event. Broke a big rule of thumb with vort/slp track. SNE can do well often with a nw track. Here? Nasomuch Was that the one around the 20th of Feb in 2015, over a weekend? We had extremely cold antecedent air leading into it. It was like 10 degrees out the morning that hit, and we got warning-level snows and some ice even as the low was in what is normally a very unfavorable spot for us to our west. But it took so long just to warm up to freezing, and the mid levels held on for quite awhile, we scored a decent snow here. (ETA: 'd by Fozz, looks like that indeed was the same storm!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My climo is right around 22-23". I'm at 15.3" on the year. One more moderate event in Jan and I'll be at my second highest ytd by the end Jan since i bought my house in spring 03. I may never beat the totals at the end of Jan 2010 so even being 2nd place is still impressive. i think we're a bit jaded by the fact that it's been so stormy, but let's face it, if it snowed in every storm we'd be breaking records left and right. removing the rainers, it's not the worst winter so far and we still have february. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 That jan 24 has been slowly trending back east over past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. and when it relaxes.....we all know its a great time to gin something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Was that the one around the 20th of Feb in 2015, over a weekend? We had extremely cold antecedent air leading into it. It was like 10 degrees out the morning that hit, and we got warning-level snows and some ice even as the low was in what is normally a very unfavorable spot for us to our west. But it took so long just to warm up to freezing, and the mid levels held on for quite awhile, we scored a decent snow here. That's the one. It was a terrible track but it didn't matter. What really set it apart was surface and mid level winds were out of the south the whole time. No doubt the best insitu cad storm we've had in many years in these parts. It was basically a widespread warning level event with very little mixing that covered the streets. And what really sets it apart is HP went from overhead then due east into the atlantic. 99 times out of 100 that's going to be a mixed event at best or just brief snow to rain. From a weather geek's perspective it was very unique and uncommon. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Lot of moving pieces next sat/sun/mon. If any of them time up, someone on the east coast could get a big one. Gonna go out on a limb and say that eps/gefs start spitting out some crazy solutions in the next couple days... I'm not sure "crazy" is in the offing, but if one looks at the GFS, you see what I suggested above, frequent visits from Alberta. I know we usually dont do well with them, but trough digs enough and maybe we get an Alberta/Alabama slammer to come up from the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I'm not sure "crazy" is in the offing, but if one looks at the GFS, you see what I suggested above, frequent visits from Alberta. I know we usually dont do well with them, but trough digs enough and maybe we get an Alberta/Alabama slammer to come up from the SE. The set up looks ripe for a Miller B to form somewhere along the east coast. It’s not out of the ordinary to get some “crazy” snow totals from Miller B’s along the east coast. You’ve got a southern stream vort that spawns a storm in the Caribbean and you’ve got multiple NS vorts diving in that form something closer to the coast. Just my observation but if you time those up better you could have a “big” one along the east coast next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ji said: That jan 24 has been slowly trending back east over past few runs Too early to write it off. The only fly in the ointment is the deep cold was originally behind the front when the event first showed up. That cold front has trended to weak sauce because the arctic front is hanging back a day. You can see it here. Artic front is just dropping into the plains. The east trend isn't the only thing needed to make this one work. If you go back to the runs that had a big hit the surface and mids we're much colder and also had hp due north of us. The one thing it has going for it is the calendar. Late Jan is one of the few times where normal temps or even above normal temps to our NW can still get the job done. Things don't start getting good until next weekend and beyond. So far no delays are showing up and it's right on the edge of midrange. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My climo is right around 22-23". I'm at 15.3" on the year. One more moderate event in Jan and I'll be at my second highest ytd by the end Jan since i bought my house in spring 03. I may never beat the totals at the end of Jan 2010 so even being 2nd place is still impressive. The other half of the forum needs a big storm to catch up to climo...I'm at about 8" right now...Small events might not cut it! So we got to get at least one or two decent (or bigger) hits to hit a forum-wide climo, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I count 5 chances of seeing flakes between next Thursday, Jan 24 and Thursday, Jan 31 on 18z gfs op. Not all will be legit but there are multiple opportunities. Not a shutout cold pattern by any means. Interested to see what gefs shows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The other half of the forum needs a big storm to catch up to climo...I'm at about 8" right now...Small events might not cut it! So we got to get at least one or two decent (or bigger) hits to hit a forum-wide climo, lol We need an entrenched cold pattern. This winter has completely lacked that since Dec 1st. We've had multiple prolific qpf storms with great tracks that rained on us. Every day that goes by looks better and better for cold air and I'm not talking about hit and run. If our area can be in a good cold pattern for even just 10 days, it would take quite a bit of bad luck to walk away with no accum snow. Everyone needs to be patient this week. It keeps getting closer and unless the rug gets pulled we should be starting a new regime of entrenched cold. Check out the EPS mean temps. Very strong signal for stable cold starting on Friday or Saturday right through the end and beyond(yes Ji, it can still rain even with mean temps showing abundent cold.....lol). It's pretty uncommon to see d10-15 mean temps this cold. I highly doubt we'll walk away empty handed during prime climo with much below normal for 9+ days in a row. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 re feb 21, 2015...that was easily one of my favorite storms. sunrise to sunset snow. that's difficult to beat. and that snow squall on feb 14 was pretty epic as well. that was a strong winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Same page....nope lol...classic Most time, you are my ID 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Free Willy Aye Chuck..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think the next event has a chance to be an even worse ice event than the current one. Some real entrenched cold starting to be picked up on the models with that one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Nothing major, but 18z GFS is just a parade of storms swinging down from Canada into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need an entrenched cold pattern. This winter has completely lacked that since Dec 1st. We've had multiple prolific qpf storms with great tracks that rained on us. Every day that goes by looks better and better for cold air and I'm not talking about hit and run. If our area can be in a good cold pattern for even just 10 days, it would take quite a bit of bad luck to walk away with no accum snow. Everyone needs to be patient this week. It keeps getting closer and unless the rug gets pulled we should be starting a new regime of entrenched cold. Check out the EPS mean temps. Very strong signal for stable cold starting on Friday or Saturday right through the end and beyond(yes Ji, it can still rain even with mean temps showing abundent cold.....lol). It's pretty uncommon to see d10-15 mean temps this cold. I highly doubt we'll walk away empty handed during prime climo with much below normal for 9+ days in a row. Wow...well that is reassuring to see (as long as it ain't the dreaded dry). But given how it has precipitated almost every weekend since September (How uncommon is that, btw? It's like clockwork!) if that trend continues...at least some of those weekends are gonna be frozen! (during the week won't hurt either, of course! ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I’m tryna learn here dudes, is the the storm on 18z fv3 at 204 a miller B?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, T. August said: I’m tryna learn here dudes, is the the storm on 18z fv3 at 204 a miller B?? Nope. Looks like a Miller A. Comes straight from the gulf and runs up the coast. I'm not knowledgable enough to know exactly why this has the nasty Dec 2010/Jan 2018 precip cutoff west of the bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: Nope. Looks like a Miller A. Comes straight from the gulf and runs up the coast. I'm not knowledgable enough to know exactly why this has the nasty Dec 2010/Jan 2018 precip cutoff west of the bay. Agreed. It's a late developer and some stream phasing so it's an unusually complicated miller A. It's a very fragile setup. Classic Miller A tracks the deep south and exits the coast in the carolinas as a well organzied storm. This one doesn't really get going until the trough goes neutral and 2 pieces of energy phase in the atlantic. This is not an inspiring vort panel. If that's the only thing i saw i would immediately think heartbreak setup. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. It's a late developer and some stream phasing so it's an unusually complicated miller A. It's a very fragile setup. Classic Miller A tracks the deep south and exits the coast in the carolinas as a well organzied storm. This one doesn't really get going until the trough goes neutral and 2 pieces of energy phase in the atlantic. This is not an inspiring vort panel. If that's the only thing i saw i would immediately think heartbreak setup. Lol Need that trough to go negative around New Orleans. Would rather a Miller B with blocking. Not a fan of Miller A unless it’s perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Ens model war in progress in the long range. Eps says cold and fairly dry. 18z gefs is anything but dry but not as cold. 18z gefs also supports the tricky storm around or after next weekend. A lot of unsual tracks and decent sized storms among the members. We are no doubt going to see a lot of versions in the coming days. Ji's worst nightmare. Should be a fun week. Overall the 18z gefs was a weenie run... that will change in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Now that's a CAD...good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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