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nj2va

January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing...

Funny, we are not looking at week 4 anymore on the weeklies ! Getting closer .

Whatever it is getting closer,  it's getting closer, so get ready. 

Seriously though, very impressive  !   EPS should be an eye openner.  

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For fun, check out the WCs at 240.

-20 to -25 in DC and approaching -45 out in the mountains 

2mT are below zero as well

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Just now, yoda said:

For fun, check out the WCs at 240.

-20 to -25 in DC and approaching -45 out in the mountains 

Now that is my idea of fun!  Wind Chill Warning?  Maybe so

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I'm going to be honest, even though snow is no guarantee, I'm very happy that at least it appears the next couple weeks will be cold for the most part. A little bummed we're going to go from teens on Monday to rain on Wednesday of next week, but the prospect of the snow event right after that is nice! Just glad we're out of that December pattern!

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Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances.

Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA.

Please correct me if I’m wrong

Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks 

 

 

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Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's some sort of multi-decadal  cycle with the NAO. I don't have a theory or any knowledge as to why but if you look at the historical NAO data, phases happen in bunches.  10 years ago and goose could fart flying over the Davis Straight and a block would form. Then the big blue ball took over. It's possible that this year marks the beginning of another cycle of -NAO winters. Not every winter but more often than not. We'll see how it goes over the next 3-5 years. 

Huh...that's interesting! (And let me guess...the snowy 60s' were a decade where the -NAO was on? Lol And if that's true, I wonder if we had the opposite in the early-mid 70s? Ack) And let's get these geese some beans, shall we? :lol:

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The GEPS have been consistently signaling rain for the 24th, and they still are.  But now a couple of members are showing big snowstorms around the 30th.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

Can you be a little less specific? LOL! Cold seems a lock!

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

@Bob Chill o you recall the evolution last year, early Jan 2018, and what caused that bomb cyclone to form and produce blizzard warnings at Dewey Beach and you and I missed it. Any similarities or options such as that on the table with the leading edge of below zero F airmass coming this way. And the blocking in place. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. 

There are several members including the control that have a south to north storm that runs the whole coast. 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

@Bob Chill o you recall the evolution last year, early Jan 2018, and what caused that bomb cyclone to form and produce blizzard warnings at Dewey Beach and you and I missed it. Any similarities or options such as that on the table with the leading edge of below zero F airmass coming this way. And the blocking in place. 

 

It's possible. The only thorn I see is Ji's favorite 50/50 high. lol. If a big storm ran the coast the threat of it coming inland is bigger than scraping the coast or OTS. 

EPS strongly agrees with the frigid outbreak d9-11 and ends up looking pretty similar to the GEFS @ d15. From how it looks right now, our chances for wintry precip go way up starting next weekend and beyond. Not a dry look on either the GEFS or EPS at the beginning of Feb. Another good run even though the follow up wave looks pretty crappy. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's possible. The only thorn I see is Ji's favorite 50/50 high. lol. If a big storm ran the coast the threat of it coming inland is bigger than scraping the coast or OTS. 

EPS strongly agrees with the frigid outbreak d9-11 and ends up looking pretty similar to the GEFS @ d15. From how it looks right now, our chances for wintry precip go way up starting next weekend and beyond. Not a dry look on either the GEFS or EPS at the beginning of Feb. Another good run even though the follow up wave looks pretty crappy. 

This may be old news, but DT highlights Feb 4 th and 5 th as a significant winter storm threat.  I would love to see snow at 5 degrees  

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

when this storm fails...we got the one right behind it to help us fail again haha

 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing...

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

Is that considered a neg NAO? Or a very strong war? A blend of the two? That's the kind of cold/low heights where it's so cold its clea outside but pixie dust snow flakes are falling. 

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Quite the hit on the 18z gfs

For the northern and central part... south and South and east of DCA looks rainy

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No margin for error though on it.  Certainly a step towards a Euro like solution of the boundary not getting through.

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13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Quite the hit on the 18z gfs

18z gfs trended toward the middle ground between 12z FV3 and 12z Canadian, which was way amped and west. 12z gfs honestly looked better in my opinion than 18z. I’m hoping that the front will get a little quicker of a kick east so that a lot of us can have fun with that system on Wed/Thur. Has the potential to have some juice with it.

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15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Looks like 18z GFS setting up to dump the motherload like the EURO at 162 hours. Huge PNA ridge and the PV is about to be brought Southward

I love Winter Weather! Understanding models and even many posts is hard for me. 162 hours is 6.5 days however, and I'm suppose to be driving from DC proper to NYC Manhattan and staying the weekend. I don't travel in bad weather! I will watch as I always do, but any early advice here, american wx peeps? You think I should cancel? Thank you in advance.

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