nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 You'd think a negative NAO should coincide with a severely negative AO. It would be interesting to see past analogs of severe -AO and corresponding NAO values...I'd imagine there is a strong correlation there for -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: You'd think a negative NAO should coincide with a severely negative AO. It would be interesting to see past analogs of severe -AO and corresponding NAO values...I'd imagine there is a strong correlation there for -NAO. According to Don S there is a correlation of a severe AO and a tendency to have a -NAO as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 A word on tropical forcing form HM : ( to go along with above ) Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 26m26 minutes ago More What we are seeing now with the tropical forcing is exactly what happened a month ago, except without the SSW occurring (which probably slowed the MJO progression). The ERWs from the westerly wave-duct sources are the culprit. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 17m17 minutes ago More Waves emanating from Asia are refracted poleward from the western Pacific tropical forcing. Wave absorption is poor in the eastern tropical Pacific and Atlantic, so waves are freely moving through the subtropical latitudes with southern stream. the poleward refraction from the West Pacific, but split stream background state/poor absorption east of that, is creating a flux of slower/more chaotic wave trains over the North America/Atlantic sector in 2 streams. This is why you may feel modeling has been tough. coherent extratropical and tropical wave trains that you can follow along add confidence to medium range forecasts. But what's over N. America is analogous to when you drip milk on the top of your coffee and watch the swirls branch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: Makes sense Cranky has been mentioning that feature for awhile now...north Pacific has been pretty much doin' the James Brown split all winter long! Ack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Not centered on the dates but close with a couple interesting analogs... Correlation score is low as well so just posting this as something a little interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not centered on the dates but close with a couple interesting analogs... Correlation score is low as well so just posting this as something a little interesting. Interesting that 79 is popping up. Yesterday I was thinking that we were seeing some similarities to that year but I never went back to verify that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Interesting that 79 is popping up. Yesterday I was thinking that we were seeing some similarities to that year but I never went back to verify that. Isn't 2003 PD2? Or is that too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Isn't 2003 PD2? A little too far off the dates to say it's a good analog. PD2 ran its course from 2/15-17. It's close though. Same with 1979 and 2000 big storms. Right now ops are squashing everything in the d8-9 range however, there is a southern shortwave. If the standard trend to back off on heights/suppression as leads shorten continues I could see a window. Too far away to overthink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: A little too far off the dates to say it's a good analog. PD2 ran its course from 2/15-17. It's close though. Same with 1979 and 2000 big storms. Right now ops are squashing everything in the d8-9 range however, there is a southern shortwave. If the standard trend to back off on heights/suppression as leads shorten continues I could see a window. Too far away to overthink. Too late...already overthinking, lolol I have been looking past the Tues deal and towards that weekend to see if there's any potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Too late...already overthinking, lolol I have been looking past the Tues deal and towards that weekend to see if there's any potential... No harm in watching. Just expect frequent changes and no consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Until we get the pacific forcing east we are likely looking at more cold dry warm wet. I guess once the mjo is into 7 maybe. There is debate about whether to use the generic enso neutral or nino correlations. Nino phase 7 is good. Neutral is bad. But either way 7 has a low correlation score. Phase 5/6 have very high correlation and very warm anomalies. The PV displacement is creating an artificially cold profile for that phase but make no mistake the ridge trough alignment in the pacific from that forcing location is not good for our stork track regardless of the temperature. I guess the temps increase chances we fluke into something. The front will likely drop some snow. But chances of a warning event seem low until we change the pac in our favor. The experts say that’s coming soon and likely to lock in this time. I’ll take their word and expect an epic February. @frd remember about 10 days ago when we discussed the soi and I posted the mslp plots in the pacific. I said on long range guidance there was some forcing near the maritime continent (not good) but the greater forcing was in the central pac (good). That was when the pattern for right now looked awesome. Well that was totally wrong. The forcing in the maritime trended stronger and the forcing in the pac died. We are back fighting an awful pacific right now. I think the results are being muted some by being in mid winter and having a cold continent profile in general but it’s not going to matter if the storm track stays what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Isn't 2003 PD2? Or is that too early? That date corresponds to the WSW event the week before PD2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 @Bob Chill trouble with those analogs and why I’m not as excited is the “good years” on that list the pattern in that snapshot was stable and persisted until we got hit. Right now all guidance indicates that day 8 look is kind of a fluke as the pattern morphs and only looks favorable like that as the tpv makes a transient trip through eastern Canada. Look at the day 11 analogs. Total and utter crap pattern only a few days later. It’s a false positive imo. There will be a transient opportunity but will require we time up a storm during a very short window. It’s all we got so I’ll track the F out of it but I’m not confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Until we get the pacific forcing east we are likely looking at more cold dry warm wet. I guess once the mjo is into 7 maybe. There is debate about whether to use the generic enso neutral or nino correlations. Nino phase 7 is good. Neutral is bad. But either way 7 has a low correlation score. Phase 5/6 have very high correlation and very warm anomalies. The PV displacement is creating an artificially cold profile for that phase but make no mistake the ridge trough alignment in the pacific from that forcing location is not good for our stork track regardless of the temperature. I guess the temps increase chances we fluke into something. The front will likely drop some snow. But chances of a warning event seem low until we change the pac in our favor. The experts say that’s coming soon and likely to lock in this time. I’ll take their word and expect an epic February. @frd remember about 10 days ago when we discussed the soi and I posted the mslp plots in the pacific. I said on long range guidance there was some forcing near the maritime continent (not good) but the greater forcing was in the central pac (good). That was when the pattern for right now looked awesome. Well that was totally wrong. The forcing in the maritime trended stronger and the forcing in the pac died. We are back fighting an awful pacific right now. I think the results are being muted some by being in mid winter and having a cold continent profile in general but it’s not going to matter if the storm track stays what it is. All good points, the end of Jan and early Feb., by many, never held real promise, we adjusted to better pattern to a degree, but as you can see not great and hardly epic, not snowy. As HM stated the MJO is rolling on now and many things Pac centered seem to dramitically improve after early Feb. Isotherm restated the Pac looks good to progress in our favor the next week as things go to a more harmonious state. Maybe tropical focrcing and the HL play nicely. We have the huge downwelling to occur in a few days. I love the AO and what it might do. I am waiting to see that SOI drop soon. funny thing is I am wondering whether this arctic drop next week is the coldest air period versus coldest to average or whether there is a lag and we see a renewed surge later next month from the delayed effect of the downwelling on Feb 1 to 3. If so maybe after Feb 10th all hell breaks lose. Iam speculating there but if there is a lag, certainly would be by mid month, and also begs the question, do we go to a crosspolar flow in Feb at some point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Would this do anything (the 1003mb SLP on the TX/OK border) in later frames if the 12z UKIE went out further? I assume confluence would keep the SLP from going north or west of us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 what is the FV3 GFS showing for Feb 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Would this do anything (the 1003mb SLP on the TX/OK border) in later frames if the 12z UKIE went out further? I assume confluence would keep the SLP from going north or west of us, right? Depends. I can’t get a feel without looping the h5. The flow is really flat but we know the tpv is progressive so if that’s lifting and the tail of the trough is digging and amplifying that could be good. That there is the timing we need. A system approach just as the tpv is lifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ryanconway63 said: what is the FV3 GFS showing for Feb 2? Weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weather Are you always a total dick? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, ryanconway63 said: Are you always a total dick? Or you could just look for yourself https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190125 12 UTC&param=precip_p12&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 @frd those experts know way more than I do so I’ll take comfort in that but I see an mjo that is heading towards the COD before it gets into favorable phases and long range guidance that still shows a ridge trough alignment that isn’t ideal in the pacific. They are all saying “it’s about to improve” so I will roll with that but I’m skeptical that’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @frd those experts know way more than I do so I’ll take comfort in that but I see an mjo that is heading towards the COD before it gets into favorable phases and long range guidance that still shows a ridge trough alignment that isn’t ideal in the pacific. They are all saying “it’s about to improve” so I will roll with that but I’m skeptical that’s all. Things have been just a little out of sync all winter and it may or may not change before it's too late. Is what it is. We have some interesting weather coming up next week. Trying to look beyond that has proved a total waste of time since this season began so I'm not motivated to think about fine details. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd those experts know way more than I do so I’ll take comfort in that but I see an mjo that is heading towards the COD before it gets into favorable phases and long range guidance that still shows a ridge trough alignment that isn’t ideal in the pacific. They are all saying “it’s about to improve” so I will roll with that but I’m skeptical that’s all. I can't blame you, it has been a very frustrating winter. ( so far ) My ROI meter is at record levels, but I learned a lot so far this year about the MJO, SSWE , TPV, walker cell , trough axis, RRMs , wave 1 and wave 2 and 3 , can't trust the weeklies or the 46 day snow maps etc. ha ha ...... So I look at it that way, and try to be positive. I am so damn happy I don't have to weed and cut the grass for another couple months LOL . Lets see what the afternoon models do psu. Hang in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Things have been just a little out of sync all winter and it may or may not change before it's too late. Is what it is. We have some interesting weather coming up next week. Trying to look beyond that has proved a total waste of time since this season began so I'm not motivated to think about fine details. I’m not buying into anything one way or another. Just saying all these experts who typically don’t hype are saying “it’s coming” and I can certainly see how it could be but I also can see how this has some of the same characteristics of the last two aborted attempts to get it right in the pac. So I guess my only point is they seem way more confident than I feel. But maybe that’s why they are experts and I’m just a snow weenie hobbyist. I’m also a dick so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Are you always a total dick? You always take sarcasm so seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not buying into anything one way or another. Just saying all these experts who typically don’t hype are saying “it’s coming” and I can certainly see how it could be but I also can see how this has some of the same characteristics of the last two aborted attempts to get it right in the pac. So I guess my only point is they seem way more confident than I feel. But maybe that’s why they are experts and I’m just a snow weenie hobbyist. I’m also a dick so there is that. PSU, could you pass along any info on what the experts you mention are specifically saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: PSU, could you pass along any info on what the experts you mention are specifically saying? The extremely short and easy to understand version is tropical forcing and MJO progression in the Pac should result in a much improved longwave pattern in the same regions of the Pac that have been working against us all year. However, very little has happened as expected this year and I'm talking inside a 2 week range and not monthly seasonal so expecting things to continue to not go as expected is probably a higher odds proposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Wow guys, the 12z GFS ensembles look a lot different. -PNA builds pretty early and it's centered in the actual PNA spot. Seeing this, I would say there is even a chance that La Nina may develop, although weaker is more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Uh-oh. More can kicking? Let the panic ensue! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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