Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Becky seems to be a twitter weather troll imo. I have no opinion of Cranky though, dont follow him Now, to me, Cranky seems to do pretty good analysis (certainly doesn't hype...and often slams those that do, lol) Been following him since last year--I can understand his stuff a little easier sometimes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, frd said: Are his insights and forecasts decent ? He sure makes alot of map, pics, etc on his social account but is he right a decent amount of the time? Sometimes I see that Becka ? Becky, dissin him. I think they are. He obviously makes mistakes sometimes and I do think he's a bit arrogant, but I think he's a lot better than say, DT or JB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 @psuhoffman this maybe belongs in the threat thread. But, hearing from some mets that the Tuesday deal is so utterly complex that we will not have a good idea on what goes down until this Sunday. That says alot right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman this maybe belongs in the threat thread. But, hearing from some mets that the Tuesday deal is so utterly complex that we will not have a good idea on what goes down until this Sunday. That says alot right there. I guess... the true arctic boundary keeps trending further NW, so we would need that southern system to really bomb out and pull that boundary in OR we would need some kind of multiple waves or some kind of transfer and super perfect miller b phase. Its complicated and complicated usually means fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS continues the warm/wet cold/dry rinse and repeat look through the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Is today the best LR look ever or disaster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Is today the best LR look ever or disaster? best disaster ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Is today the best LR look ever or disaster? We are in disaster mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 44 minutes ago, jaydreb said: We are in disaster mode. Just wait 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 GEFS would imply a threat window early feb before it goes to hell. After that pretty ugly but some hope at the end maybe it’s moving the way we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Snowstorm5921, you remarked that by late March things will be looking good. You are likely right, because you won’t be able to post by then. 1 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, to me, Cranky seems to do pretty good analysis (certainly doesn't hype...and often slams those that do, lol) Been following him since last year--I can understand his stuff a little easier sometimes! I've improved my LR model reading & comprehension skills a bit by reading Cranky's long-ish missives over the past year or so. His blog entries are not always as step-by-step/detailed as @showmethesnow or @psuhoffman, and he can indeed get cantankerous and throw shade at the Twitter-based wx hypemasters, but on the whole, I've learned from his discussions. I've got a long way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Our April/May -NAOs hardly ever fail. I'm sure we will have some coastal beauts to track for Easter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Bernie sees two threats next week. Thinks the Monday deal is a Midwest storm, and then thinks there is a chance for a big storm along the East Coast mid-to-late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 58 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Snowstorm5921, you remarked that by late March things will be looking good. You are likely right, because you won’t be able to post by then. You could make some money for the board. Take up a collection with a target amount to get him banned. I guarantee you will hit the target quick! Not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: best disaster ever It can only get better from here, right? Don’t answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: You could make some money for the board. Take up a collection with a target amount to get him banned. I guarantee you will hit the target quick! Not kidding. At this point I'd think he's doing it just to get reactions. Either ban him or get everyone to ignore him or he's going to keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You could make some money for the board. Take up a collection with a target amount to get him banned. I guarantee you will hit the target quick! Not kidding. I take bribes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: At this point I'd think he's doing it just to get reactions. Either ban him or get everyone to ignore him or he's going to keep it up. I tried. I even started a thread pleading with people to ignore him but it got hidden because it was thought it gave him too much attention. But I really wish everyone would put him on ignore. I have but I still have to see the replies to his crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: It can only get better from here, right? Don’t answer that. It doesn’t get any worse than warm wet, cold dry. Literally every other combination is better. Would rather have cold wet, warm dry; cold wet, cold dry; cold dry, warm dry; and cold wet, warm wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Looks as if we cant score something in the Jan 30-Feb 2 window, we may have to regroup. Its not easy to get snow around here even in the heart of Winter we need most ingredients to come together just right and that just hasn't been the case so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 So how bad is this? I see a ridge out west and oranges over Greenland. But no blues over us. And orange in the 50/50 is not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So how bad is this? I see a ridge out west and oranges over Greenland. But no blues over us. And orange in the 50/50 is not good It's a helluva lot better than it's been. How much more can it change in 10 days? Is this really a disaster? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: So how bad is this? I see a ridge out west and oranges over Greenland. But no blues over us. And orange in the 50/50 is not good i see a ridge in a west and a trough in the east lol. Do you want the oppostite? The ridge is in a good place too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i see a ridge in a west and a trough in the east lol. Do you want the oppostite? The ridge is in a good place too Lol no, I’m still learning how to read these things. I saw the yellow over us and didn’t interpret it as a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I like the look of higher heights pushing into GL from Scan. Looks like as soon as the ridge pops into AK the lower heights in N Can and the Bahamas will start to form right where the weak ridging is located east of the Miss....and hopefully open the door to a better NAO look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Lol no, I’m still learning how to read these things. I saw the yellow over us and didn’t interpret it as a trough. Always keep in mind with ensembles that they are a mean of 20-50 members. Pay more attention to the orientation of the isobars versus where the blues and oranges are. It's perfectly fine for an ensemble mean to show slightly above normal heights but a pretty nice longwave pattern embedded. The only flaw on that panel from a longwave perspective is the above normal heights in far eastern canada. For big storms we want below normal heights there (indicates confluence so storms can't easily cut). Overall though, I'd be fine with that exact longwave pattern from start to finish in any winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Always keep in mind with ensembles that they are a mean of 20-50 members. Pay more attention to the orientation of the isobars versus where the blues and oranges are. It's perfectly fine for an ensemble mean to show slightly above normal heights but a pretty nice longwave pattern embedded. The only flaw on that panel from a longwave perspective is the above normal heights in far eastern canada. For big storms we want below normal heights there (indicates confluence so storms can't easily cut). Overall though, I'd be fine with that exact longwave pattern from start to finish in any winter. Thanks for the guidance Bob. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 @psuhoffman instead of talking about how the MJO can hurt us..maybe it can actually help us in time for Feb. We are almost out of phase 5. Phase 6 will be cold for us except for a rain event..and then right into 7 where it looks like more amplitude than originally thought. If we fail, i dont think we can blame the MJO this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 although i read that the effects of MJO have a 2 week lag...so maybe we feel the phase 5 lag in 2 weeks smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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