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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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26 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Nothing.  There’s nothing that looks favorable.  Call me whatever you want but I’ve been posting for days that things look crappy and was told i know nothing.  

you've made your point. now its time to stop repeating it. and then hope your point pans out, otherwise you will be trolled relentlessly for it. 

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48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love how when things look good you do nothing but deb and now that things look pretty crappy you are the merchant of hope!  And I totally get that the guidance is unreliable and so there is a chance it’s wrong. That a legit point. But what other than blind hope that the guidance is wrong are you basing this optimism on?  What objective evidence says it’s going to work out?  Just curious if you have actual evidence things look good or of this is just hope.  I have hope but I don’t feel confident when hope is all I’m basing things on. Lol

NO evidence...just hope. I hope I didnt waste my time waiting for what was suppose to be our best period. as the Sixers say...you got to trust the process. Nino Februarys are usually good. I think MJO will be in a good phase even though it wont have much impact. Soi will probably go back negative again.  I think the NAO blocking as it has been doing in the 2nd half of winter. There is a reason why the climate models all saw good Februarys. And frankly the models have been so wish washy 10-15 thats its hard to trust them no matter what they say. Ive even seen the GFs show purple around Greeland lately. So mostly i am going with hope and a gut feeling because the data as we see it now looks like crap lol

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I was just going to ask about that.   I just am not sure sometimes what I think might be ok ends up not ok.  I didn't like that blue over AK.  but I thought the Atlantic looked ok  Didn't check themo anomolies

Until further notice my stance is/has been that the reshuffle is temporary and the 'bad looks' the models are throwing up in the long range may in fact become more muted and not materialize with any significance in real time. I think we do need a bit of a reshuffle. Right now we are stuck in this mode of cutters followed by cold.

Still not sure how blocky we get in the NA, but even some relatively short lived episodes will work with a -AO and ofc assuming the Pacific doesn't go full on hostile.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Until further notice my stance is the reshuffle is temporary and the 'bad looks' the models are throwing up in the long range may in fact become more muted and not materialize with any significance in real time. I think we need a bit of a reshuffle. Right now we are stuck in this mode of cutters followed by cold.

Still not sure how blocky we get in the NA, but even some relatively short lived episodes will work with a -AO and assuming the Pacific doesn't go full on hostile.

i know its a garbage model on par with NAM 84 but i cycled through the FV3 and from Jan 25 to end of the run...99% of the time we are below zero at 850. It culminates with this lol. Today has been a good day so far after the bad morning

 

fv3p_T850_us_65.png

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Too bad nothing shows up... even SNE gets nothing out of it

Yup...but there are a lot of moving parts. I just have hunch that someone along the east coast scores something next week. We've seen hits here and there by various models over the last couple of days. Both GFS/GGEM/EURO jumped on board with a good look up top today. We're at 7 days from that good look. Starting to get that look like of the weeklies. Who knows if it will last but if that look does indeed verify next week someone on the east coast will score something. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are in the PSU window of new pattern but he bailed

If we're honest, we can't really be sure that the look will verify next week. However, does anyone else think it's hilarious how whenever chill or psu start being deb's we get some serious glimmers of hope? Remember, the first week of January? Snowstorm the next week. Remember this morning? Model's start immediately start showing a better look. This is the year of "weather's just gonna do what weather's gonna do..."

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Euro trolling us.  Has two snow events in next 10 days.  

Things are moving around a ton right now. We won't know anything about a specific threat for next week until the current storm on Thursday gets out of the way. Friday we should start getting some clarity on the Monday-Friday timeframe next week. At this point though, it looks like we have a window of opportunity. That's all you can as for at a 7-10 day lead. 

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2 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Things are moving around a ton right now. We won't know anything about a specific threat for next week until the current storm on Thursday gets out of the way. Friday we should start getting some clarity on the Monday-Friday timeframe next week. At this point though, it looks like we have a window of opportunity. That's all you can as for at a 7-10 day lead. 

Yep.  We are about to enter prime climo so if we’re ever going to get something without a perfect setup now is the time.  

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