January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Stormman96]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep! sorry. Feb 88 is dismal

I remember that feb 87 storm well.  It was a sunday night into Monday morning storm.  I was living in philly at the time. That Sunday afternoon the foecast was for a period of wetsnow with 2-4 total. That evening they upgraded to a winter storm warning for 4-8 total I remember it was in the mid 50s that day an was watching the 11oclock news before going to bed and as of 1130 it was still almost 40 out an they said 4-8 mainly on grassy surfaces. A very wet snow had started around 1130 an ground was just getting wet .I went to bed expecting to have school in morning since I didn’t expext it to stick to roads with the warm temps. I woke up around 430 an looked out the winter an thought i was dreaming the snow looked liked tall mountains on top of cars an shed an everything.  It was snowing like crazt an looked to be easily atleast 10 inches on the ground if not more. I put on the local radio an latest forecast was now for 10-18 total. We ended up with around 13-14 total even in the streets. Obviously no school.  Then the temp got up to mid 50s again that afternoon an by evening their was hardly anything left on ground. Almost 14 inches of snow melted in one afternoon 

[paulythegun]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's the million dollar question...Why does snow have to be emotional for some? I would love for a psychological opinion on this, lol I have to wonder whether it's misplaced dreaming or anticipation for something "bigger" or more exciting, than the routine...It provides a change to the environment...creating another "world" if you will...And so, if a model shows that it could snow, now you hope for that escape, that newness...and when it doesn't happen, there's a disappointment because you don't get to enter that "world" that time, and have to go on with the hum-drum. I guess eventually, once the season is over and you know meaningful snow is impossible outside of winter, expectations/anticipations get placed elsewhere. It's a strange psychology...but one I would love to have a better handle on!

Not to get too far down that rabbit hole, but I suspect for most in this sub-forum, the love of snow (and strong feelings about it) are tied to early childhood when two things happened: (1) school was cancelled by it and (2) we had a blast outside in it. And on the flip side, when snow forecasts failed, we felt deep disappointment at having to go to school. For many of us, that's our lasting and formative memory of snow forecasts - both positive and negative. It all flows from that. So we have an emotional response. 

There are probably also some smaller factors as well. One is the way in which snow completely changes the landscape around our homes and communities - everything we consider familiar and mundane (because we see it day after day after day) is covered in white. And beyond those aesthetic changes, there are different sounds and smell different smells. A bustling city or suburb becomes calm and serene. And all of those things trigger your childhood memories and nostalgia. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

@donsutherland1 has raised the white flag.  

 

lol we will see. 

Not sure that's what he is doing, but if one makes a call on the winter based on a weak Modoki Nino, and it is clearly not happening, then yeah he probably needs to revise a tad.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

this is only notable thing i saw. It sounds like a DC screw job

 

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/13/us/major-snowstorm-cuts-path-from-south-to-new-england.html

I got 1" from that storm.....WOOOOO

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Not to get too far down that rabbit hole, but I suspect for most in this sub-forum, the love of snow (and strong feelings about it) are tied to early childhood when two things happened: (1) school was cancelled by it and (2) we had a blast outside in it. And on the flip side, when snow forecasts failed, we felt deep disappointment at having to go to school. For many of us, that's our lasting and formative memory of snow forecasts - both positive and negative. It all flows from that. So we have an emotional response. 

There are probably also some smaller factors as well. One is the way in which snow completely changes the landscape around our homes and communities - everything we consider familiar and mundane (because we see it day after day after day) is covered in white. And beyond those aesthetic changes, there are different sounds and smell different smells. A bustling city or suburb becomes calm and serene. And all of those things trigger your childhood memories and nostalgia. 

This is it for me- the complete transformation. Kinda magical. Does something to my endorphins.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am in "trend" watching mode now. If the recent 'not so good' looks on the ensembles are mostly a function of the current MJO wave, which looks short lived and weaker than the previous one through the bad phases, then things should probably start to look better on LR guidance in a few days. If we see deterioration up top- less NA blocking showing up and the AO starts rising, and/or the PAC goes into full-on hostile mode, maybe we go quickly from red flags to the white one. For now I am leaning optimistic.

maybe but keep in mind where the wave dies has an impact.  Absent other forcing (like a healthy nino) the atmosphere will often have a lag effect and remain in the base state established by the last significant driver.  I have read some stuff about how where the MJO wave dies has an impact on the pattern after.  The last MJO wave made it strongly into phase 8 and then died.  If this next wave dies in phase 6 we might be in trouble.  

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

@donsutherland1 has raised the white flag.  

 

I wouldn't say it's a white flag just yet.

We have a weak El Niño event that has likely peaked for winter 2018-19. I want to see if the basin-wide nature vs. central Pacific-based nature makes a difference going forward. It may or may not, but would rather look into the data to reach an informed conclusion. If necessary, and that's not assured, any necessary revisions would be noted.

More immediately, I continue to expect the development of a sustained period of blocking with snowfall opportunities (for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and perhaps Southeast). Nevertheless, I believe it is useful to examine whether a basin-wide El Niño has implications for February and March, given that one of my major assumptions had been a central Pacific-based El Niño event.

I wanted to share that information and note that I would use such information, if necessary. The qualifier "possible" is important. Revision is not a guaranteed outcome. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I wouldn't say it's a white flag just yet.

We have a weak El Niño event that has likely peaked for winter 2018-19. I want to see if the basin-wide nature vs. central Pacific-based nature makes a difference going forward. It may or may not, but would rather look into the data to reach an informed conclusion. If necessary, and that's not assured, any necessary revisions would be noted.

More immediately, I continue to expect the development of a sustained period of blocking with snowfall opportunities (for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and perhaps Southeast). Nevertheless, I believe it is useful to examine whether a basin-wide El Niño has implications for February and March, given that one of my major assumptions had been a central Pacific-based El Niño event.

I wanted to share that information and note that I would use such information, if necessary. The qualifier "possible" is important. Revision is not a guaranteed outcome. 

Don, I think the strength (or lack of) is the bigger problem.   A lot of years people think of as modoki or central based like 2003 and 2010 actually evolved like this one did in terms of where the sst anomalies were and how they progressed.  Many of those years became basin wide as the warmth propagated east.  Very few modoki years stayed warmer in the central with colder in the eastern PAC throughout their life.  They often recede back west as they die off but this event is so weak and started so late that perhaps it simply isn't there yet.  SST guidance suggests it will die like a typical modoki though by retrogressing westward in spring.   In the past most dumped any nino that originated in the central PAC and then propagated east into the "other" category vs the classical nino that has its inception off the South American coast and propagates west.  This year definitely fell into the mold of the non classical nino BUT it was much much much weaker.  There is a newer and more stringent definition of modoki nino that requires the water remain warmer in the central pacific with colder anomalies in region 1+2 but by that definition years like 2003 and 2010 were not modoki nino's.   The "definition" thing annoys me because it creates confusion...I don't care what we call it but some are using the older definition where any nino that originates in the central pac and propagates east is "other" and some are using the newer classification.  But the problem to me is the strength, even with modoki's there is evidence that a really weak bordering neutral isn't really good for the mid atlantic.  If the nino is too weak it fails to initiate the atmospheric response we need to override other influences.  This year the ONI might be barely in weak nino territory but the MEI and the atmospheric response is neutral imo.  I also think Tip's theory on the lack of gradient also muting the nino impacts has merit.  And I bet if we looked at warm neutral years with similar other factors we would get a very different set of outcomes!  I made the same exact mistake you did in assuming a central based nino but I am realizing that isnt the way the atmosphere is behaving.  

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I wouldn't say it's a white flag just yet.

We have a weak El Niño event that has likely peaked for winter 2018-19. I want to see if the basin-wide nature vs. central Pacific-based nature makes a difference going forward. It may or may not, but would rather look into the data to reach an informed conclusion. If necessary, and that's not assured, any necessary revisions would be noted.

More immediately, I continue to expect the development of a sustained period of blocking with snowfall opportunities (for the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and perhaps Southeast). Nevertheless, I believe it is useful to examine whether a basin-wide El Niño has implications for February and March, given that one of my major assumptions had been a central Pacific-based El Niño event.

I wanted to share that information and note that I would use such information, if necessary. The qualifier "possible" is important. Revision is not a guaranteed outcome. 

I think Ji flunked reading comprehension in High School but he still has time to grow

[MD Snow]

It’s an op but at hr 210 on the 12z gfs doesn’t look to shabby. Workable. -nao it appears. 

Yeah mid to end of next week def looks like a time to score. 

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I think Ji flunked reading comprehension in High School but he still has time to grow

thought you were going to keep your trolling of ji to the banter thread?

[psuhoffman]

now this is workable...lets see where it goes.  And yea I know its an op at range but I am looking for any shelter in a storm right now.  

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

maybe but keep in mind where the wave dies has an impact.  Absent other forcing (like a healthy nino) the atmosphere will often have a lag effect and remain in the base state established by the last significant driver.  I have read some stuff about how where the MJO wave dies has an impact on the pattern after.  The last MJO wave made it strongly into phase 8 and then died.  If this next wave dies in phase 6 we might be in trouble.  

Possibly. But the fact that this event appears to be progressing much more rapidly through those phases(and at lower amplitude), even if it does die there maybe the resulting pattern changes will not progress/get fully established in 'unfavorable territory'- so even with unavoidable lag things could recover relatively quickly.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Possibly. But the fact that this event appears to be progressing much more rapidly through those phases(and at lower amplitude), even if it does die there maybe the resulting pattern changes will not progress/get established in unfavorable territory- so even with unavoidable lag things could recover relatively quickly.

Maybe... I should say again, I am not confident right now that the pattern will suck.  I am just no longer confident that it will be good either.   That probably comes off as more negative than it is since I have been in the "it's gonna be good" camp for so long, but I cannot ignore some of the red flags that things may not be progressing the way I believed.  I can definitely see how this turns around.  There are good things that with some minor adjustments could make the pattern work.  

[Snowstorm5921]

Man the GFS goes to hell quick.  Curtains if it has the right idea.  Ugly.

[psuhoffman]

ugh the pattern evolution on the gfs is so maddening.  Finally get the PV to split and displace which allows the NAO to tank but then instead of dropping the western TPV retrogrades west which mucks up the whole pattern.  

[Steve25]

3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Man the GFS goes to hell quick.  Curtains if it has the right idea.  Ugly.

Personally, I never look at the GFS beyond 10 days. How often are they right 2 weeks away? 

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ugh the pattern evolution on the gfs is so maddening.  Finally get the PV to split and displace which allows the NAO to tank but then instead of dropping the western TPV retrogrades west which mucks up the whole pattern.  

Part of what is probably necessary.  You cant have the split without a piece moving through an area that temporarily gives us a crap pattern, imo.  Will it get stuck there or take it's time moving through?  I have a hunch it is temporary due to the MJO most likely heading toward 7/8 in the LR....

 

[Ji]

ugh the pattern evolution on the gfs is so maddening.  Finally get the PV to split and displace which allows the NAO to tank but then instead of dropping the western TPV retrogrades west which mucks up the whole pattern.  

Sucks cause op gfs has never been wrong 300 hours out before

[frd]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ugh the pattern evolution on the gfs is so maddening.  Finally get the PV to split and displace which allows the NAO to tank but then instead of dropping the western TPV retrogrades west which mucks up the whole pattern.  

This is similiar to what Snowgoose mentioned. I think this happened, as he mentioned in the winter of 2011. When it did,  it ended winter more or less. Do I buy the GFS, No

Even the more skilled models are not going to handle the very complex nature of tis pattern going forward.  With a readjustment of the MJO or amp change, the GFS will change yet again.

I would  look at the GEFS and the EPS mostly for the progression of the blocking at HL .

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ugh the pattern evolution on the gfs is so maddening.  Finally get the PV to split and displace which allows the NAO to tank but then instead of dropping the western TPV retrogrades west which mucks up the whole pattern.  

Sucks cause op gfs has never been wrong 300 hours out before

just need to toggle back and forth to see how different they are at 300hr...not worth sweating a fantasy fail on a op run...we have plenty of them in the short term to focus on

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ugh the pattern evolution on the gfs is so maddening.  Finally get the PV to split and displace which allows the NAO to tank but then instead of dropping the western TPV retrogrades west which mucks up the whole pattern.  

Sucks cause op gfs has never been wrong 300 hours out before

The ensembles support that progression.  Yea it might be wrong but I would like to see that idea change sooner rather than later.  Every run that continues to show that progression increases the odds slightly that it will happen.  

[Ji]

The ensembles support that progression.  Yea it might be wrong but I would like to see that idea change sooner rather than later.  Every run that continues to show that progression increases the odds slightly that it will happen.  

Like the Nao that we were seeing a few days ago for late January where Bob said it was practically a done deal since we has managed to get it down to 7 days.

[paulythegun]

WPC update on Mon/Tues:

1530 UTC Update...

During days 6-7 (Mon-Tue), the most significant model differences continue with
respect to the degree of phasing between northern/southern stream
shortwave energy across the eastern U.S., and the implications for
the track and timing of a potential low pressure system off the
East Coast. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS showed very
little in the way of phasing and thus a highly progressive system
- a stark change from previous runs for the ECMWF in particular.
The CMC, on the other hand, held onto a highly phased and
amplified solution. A look at ensemble members does seem to
suggest a solution at least somewhat less progressive than shown
by the 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS, with perhaps even a few more members
joining this idea over the past couple ensemble cycles. Thus, the
WPC forecast is not near as progressive as the ECMWF/GFS, and
resembles something closer to the ECENS/GEFS ensemble means, which
comprised the majority of the forecast blend during days 6-7.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The ensembles support that progression.  Yea it might be wrong but I would like to see that idea change sooner rather than later.  Every run that continues to show that progression increases the odds slightly that it will happen.  

Like the Nao that we were seeing a few days ago for late January where Bob said it was practically a done deal since we has managed to get it down to 7 days.

I love how when things look good you do nothing but deb and now that things look pretty crappy you are the merchant of hope!  And I totally get that the guidance is unreliable and so there is a chance it’s wrong. That a legit point. But what other than blind hope that the guidance is wrong are you basing this optimism on?  What objective evidence says it’s going to work out?  Just curious if you have actual evidence things look good or of this is just hope.  I have hope but I don’t feel confident when hope is all I’m basing things on. Lol

[Snowstorm5921]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I love how when things look good you do nothing but deb and now that things look pretty crappy you are the merchant of hope!  And I totally get that the guidance is unreliable and so there is a chance it’s wrong. That a legit point. But what other than blind hope that the guidance is wrong are you basing this optimism on?  What objective evidence says it’s going to work out?  Just curious if you have actual evidence things look good or of this is just hope.  I have hope but I don’t feel confident when hope is all I’m basing things on. Lol

Nothing.  There’s nothing that looks favorable.  Call me whatever you want but I’ve been posting for days that things look crappy and was told i know nothing.  

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

now this is workable...lets see where it goes.  And yea I know its an op at range but I am looking for any shelter in a storm right now.  

Didn't you say this backwards? You are looking FOR a storm from your shelter.....there. lol

[frd]

 

 

The AO looks more likely to dive down this time around considering we are that point Jan 22 to 23rd where the impact hits the trop. 

I personally look for more model uncertainty, but the calls of a diving AO look possible followed by the NAO in early Feb. 

Would not surprise me to see a once again sudden flip to a -NAO and models looking really good. Chaos is weather.

 

 

 

 

[CAPE]

Very nice west based block for early Feb on the 12z GEFS.

Also looks like the lower heights over AK are retrograding towards the Aleutians and a PNA ridge is about to pop towards D15.

My glass is half full.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Very nice west based block for early Feb on the 12z GEFS.

Also looks like the lower heights over AK are retrograding towards the Aleutians and a PNA ridge is about to pop towards D15.

My glass is half full.

I was just going to ask about that.   I just am not sure sometimes what I think might be ok ends up not ok.  I didn't like that blue over AK.  but I thought the Atlantic looked ok  Didn't check themo anomolies