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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

This freaked me out until I aw it was MSLP, and not H5.

The numerical AO/NAO are based on surface pressure and not h5. Much of our future success hinges on the AO (most important) and NAO going negative. All ensembles are moving in that direction but it's still too far out in time to make any assumptions. The -PNA may cause some angst if it develops but it's much easier to transition to a good winter pattern when the AO and NAO are negative. I'm not making any calls on where I think things are going. High levels of volatility in both ops and ens right now. Best to focus on opportunities inside of 10 days and just let the chips fall beyond that. 

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lol 3 posts inquiring about the NAO right after I posted a link to Isotherm's update on the NAO.

Read it. Informative and sounds like good news.

 

eta- 2 posts actually, and I am sure @frd has read it.

Thanks @C.A.P.E. I did read it, just answering that question from the previous poster.

I enjoyed Isotherm's Update, he seems optimistic, maybe we get things to go in our favor shortly.    

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The numerical AO/NAO are based on surface pressure and not h5. Much of our future success hinges on the AO (most important) and NAO going negative. All ensembles are moving in that direction but it's still too far out in time to make any assumptions. The -PNA may cause some angst if it develops but it's much easier to transition to a good winter pattern when the AO and NAO are negative. I'm not making any calls on where I think things are going. High levels of volatility in both ops and ens right now. Best to focus on opportunities inside of 10 days and just let the chips fall beyond that.  

Almost need to cut the days in half (to 5) the way models have been handling things.

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

-AO/NAO is bad mmmmkay

gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_12.png

Everyone just needs to put him on ignore. I did but still see when others reply to him. We can even put a thread up and pin it warning any newcomers to put him on ignore. That or convince Randy to ban him even though he hadn’t done anything blatantly awful just been a constant non stop annoying a$$ hat. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Everyone just needs to put him on ignore. I did but still see when others reply to him. We can even put a thread up and pin it warning any newcomers to put him on ignore. That or convince Randy to ban him even though he hadn’t done anything blatantly awful just been a constant non stop annoying a$$ hat. 

He's doing it for the responses. So yeah, a thread suggesting newcomers to put him on ignore actually sounds like a great idea. 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone just needs to put him on ignore. I did but still see when others reply to him. We can even put a thread up and pin it warning any newcomers to put him on ignore. That or convince Randy to ban him even though he hadn’t done anything blatantly awful just been a constant non stop annoying a$$ hat. 

I would love to put him on ignore.  Sadly I  cant see how to do it.  Can some one please share how?  
 

 

edit:  figured it out.  clicked on his name and it was right there!  Congrats  for being the first on my ignore list!

 

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS is delaying the -pna now. How shocked are we? I'm certainly not.  Keeps the +PNA/-EPO intact into early Feb. More than an insignificant shift and colder in the east than 0z. 

I haven't seen past D10, but this map I can get behind.  Especially if that piece of the vortex in Canada gets stretched out more E-W afterwards.  

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Upper left of your amwx screen, click your user name. Should have a drop down list that include "ignored users". Click that. Start typing his handle until it comes up, then, click "ignore".

thanks! figured it out almost immediately after posting!  

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