psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just a guess but I think the nino may have been doomed from the beginning. If you only look at enso regions it looks ok. But when you pan out and look at the entire Pac it doesn't look good. Especially back in Dec. No typical +PDO and pretty much sprawling + sstas everywhere. Iirc, every nino that did well here had a +pdo. That should have been an early flag. Other than an active southern stream, this nino has not behaved like one at all. There's never even been an aleutian trough of consequence. The neg pna showing up is the final straw for me if it verifies. Nobody saw that coming. Not even a peep. So I'll throw up the white flag and concede that i have no idea where we go from here. Every model and its mom had a neg nao building and also a +pna. Complete uniform agreement. Now that is all changing. Delayed but not denied? Maybe but I no longer trust a single piece of guidance, tweet, or post about what to expect more than 10 days down the line. Sometimes long lead stuff fits the collective thoughts and model output. And sometimes weather makes everyone look like they don't know S. This year clearly fits the nobody or weather model knows S about where we go from here. Yea Tip had a great write up on this and it makes sense. I didn’t think of it before hand though. Was I falling prey to bias seeing what I wanted to see? Maybe. We did have a major pattern flip mid January. But it might have been from an awful to a decent pattern instead of to an epic one. We will see. There is a lot of volatility right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Anybody know what the latest weeklies/CFS are showing? Did they loose their positive vibe as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 @Bob Chill you know I had a bad feeling after the last weekly run. Remember how we noted the anomalies backed off significantly which suggested increased divergence compared to previous runs. It’s typically a red flag when divergence increases as lead times shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 23 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anybody know what the latest weeklies/CFS are showing? Did they loose their positive vibe as well? CFS weeklies still look very good into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill you know I had a bad feeling after the last weekly run. Remember how we noted the anomalies backed off significantly which suggested increased divergence compared to previous runs. It’s typically a red flag when divergence increases as lead times shorten. 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CFS weeklies still look very good through early March. Cool bro...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: Cool bro...lol He asked. They do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: CFS weeklies still look very good through early March. Latest cfs shows the issues out west but quickly shifts the trough back east after day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Latest cfs shows the issues out west but quickly shifts the trough back east after day 10. Actually I need to clarify. My impression was that both the GFS and Euro had an interseasonal product. I thought the GFS one was called the CFS. I thought hte Euro one was the one we referred to as "the weeklies". Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Latest cfs shows the issues out west but quickly shifts the trough back east after day 10. It does briefly yes, then quickly gets good again. It has a pretty stout -NAO from the last few days of Jan all the way through Feb. Do I buy it? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This... and it might also be related to the collapse of the enso. Typically the mjo is muted in a nino as forcing is more enso focused. I was totally wrong about the mjo. If you had told me back in November the mjo was going to have a record strong slow wave through warm phases and then after a week in cold phases go right back and repeat...I would have told you we were in big trouble. You hit the nail on the head. Many mets were stating they had some concerns over the Nino in Nov being weak during the heart of winter. Some countered that by stating where the main tropical forcing was going to be centered, made that issue not a viable concern, 40 70 benchmark remarked in November about the pathetic MEI and stated that not having a moderate Nino versus weak, ( right now it is very very weak, not even declared yet ) it would be hard to get say MECS in our forum . I know you know that, and most here do as well, but not having a stonger Nino hurts us, and that we do better in moderate Ninos. I know you and I have discussed this over a month ago, and see others are mentionung it now too now about what Tip said from NE Forum , about the extensive warm waters and the gradient theory he has, as to the fast Pac flow. Certainly the MJO in the warmers phases is an issue this year. We are breaking MJO phase and amplitude records for Januarys as Don S mentioned in his forum. Very unusual to the MJO act like this. Seems right now AAM is up +2 and maybe things work out for us soon, 1/27 -1/30 . I agree with Bob we will have oppurtunities and we need to watch the Northern jet as well. I am still optimistic about about Feb. But damn that the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: Actually I need to clarify. My impression was that both the GFS and Euro had an interseasonal product. I thought the GFS one was called the CFS. I thought hte Euro one was the one we referred to as "the weeklies". Am I wrong? CFS has monthly means , and also weeklies. Its available on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: He asked. They do. Lol at the people that make fun for discussing long range guidance. It’s what we got. No one is skilled enough to extrapolate the pattern out that far. Analog forecasting only goes so far as minor differences lead to different outcomes. There is a reason no one had great verification on long range. But if we have a long range thread than what do they want us to talk about. Chicken bones and tarot cards? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It does briefly yes, then quickly gets good again. It has a pretty stout -NAO from the last few days of Jan all the way through Feb. Do I buy it? lol. Cfs weeklies have been better than the euro weeklies this winter. But yea right now everything is up in the air. But they offer hope that what we’re seeing is just a temporary blip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Somewhat positive-feeling post from Don S. today. Of course it is focused on NYC area and north. But general info is relevant for the whole east coast. 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A storm that brought significant snow to parts of central and Upstate New York into northern New England is now moving away. A frigid air mass is plunging into the region. With 1.6" snow through 4 am, Boston has moved above season-to-date snowfall futility levels. Before then, Boston had set record low season-to-date snowfall figures from January 13 through January 19. The SOI was +5.28 today. Nevertheless, it has been negative for 15 out of the last 20 days. The SOI will likely go negative within 4-7 days. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.210. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.059. On January 19, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.425 (RMM). That amplitude was little changed from the January 18-adjusted figure of 1.442. Since regular recordkeeping on the MJO began in 1974, there were only three winters when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above in January and measurable snow was reported in Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia. Those cases were: January 1978, 1994, and 2005. All three winters featured much above normal snowfall afterward. The MJO will likely continue to advance through Phase 4 and into and into Phases 5 and 6 over the next 3-6 days. Initially, the MJO's amplitude will likely continue to increase, but it appears unlikely that the kind of high amplitudes that characterized late December into the start of January will develop. With the MJO's likely pushing back toward lower amplitudes and/or into the colder phases near the end of the month, the AO will very likely return to negative values. Strong to perhaps severe blocking could develop in late January. The persistence of such blocking could set the stage for a snowy to perhaps very snowy February in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. Following this weekend's storm, there is a risk for two additional storms to impact the region: January 24-25 and January 27-29. The former will likely be a rainstorm. The latter storm could be the bigger and potentially snowy one. Details remain uncertain, but the extent of Atlantic blocking will be important. The GEFS ensembles continue to show the AO's diving around the January 28 timeframe +/- 1 day much as happened just ahead of the January 2005 blizzard. While a big storm is far from assured, the combination of the MJO's moving into low amplitudes and/or its colder phases, strong to severe blocking rapidly developing, and frigid air lurking in Canada suggests real potential. The probability of a colder than normal average monthly temperature for January in the New York City area has continued to increase. That outcome is now somewhat more likely than not despite the very warm start to January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Cfs weeklies have been better than the euro weeklies this winter. But yea right now everything is up in the air. But they offer hope that what we’re seeing is just a temporary blip Yup. Maybe its an indication that this is a temporary 'misstep' on the PAC side, probably influenced by the lower amplitude MJO pulse moving through bad phases, then hopefully quickly heading back into the COD. New edition of the EPS weeklies will be interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I don't think that at all actually. Copious cold is building in north america in the mid range and we're in calendar prime time. As long as that keeps up we'll get our shots. If the pac jet comes back and blasts the continent it's probably over. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about getting some snow in the next 10 days or so. This is it right here. If we were in early or mid Dec we should be worried. We are not. Any precip that runs over us/me for the next few weeks has a chance to be frozen. That is the bottom line. Prime climo and an active pattern WILL deliver something at some point......It just will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Anybody know what the latest weeklies/CFS are showing? Did they loose their positive vibe as well? NO. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2019012012&fh=0&r=na&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Funny how just a few days ago we didn't think we would have much use for the EPS weeklies in the near term because the ens runs looked so good and the epic pattern had "arrived". Lol how quickly things can change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Icon 180 has a 990mb low in the gulf. That would be the deepest non tropical low in the gulf since the blizzard of 93 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I don’t have access to euro maps but what’s the surface look like here... I’m sure it’s been discussed so excuse my ignorance Eta: never mind I went back and found the disco on it. 174hrs out and icon/gfs/ euro have a gulf low. Things could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: @Amped That's pretty wicked and verbatim looks to come north up the coast Would it with that h5 look? Its digging for oil with that closed h5 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Our region needs a neg ao more than a neg nao. I can't stress this enough. 2 legit neg AO periods since Nov and we scored in both. The nao may not be a beast or build at all but a -AO looks to build in the med range and potentially stick around for a while. As long as that happens in some fashion we'll likely remain in the game for the foreseeable future. I said that earlier this year. All of the NAO talk has led to how much of a good pattern? Give me a -AO like we've had in recent years and I'll place my chips on it every time. I do not mean this in a negative way, but in all seriousness, think about how much discussion has been "wasted" on the mythical -NAO? I'm not sure if its climate change....etc....whatevs, but it rarely happens anymore. It's not the only way to snow, and if the AO is the new way to the promise land....i really dont care. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: With the long wave pattern verbatim..I think minimum i95 east. Trough is already negatively tilted and surface at 180 suggests its jumping to a new surface low possibly off the SC coast . Precip is racing out way ahead like 93' But wouldn't the s/w in the Northern Plains at 180 act as a kicker? Yeah, we're discussing the ICON at range tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 GFS is digging even further west than the Icon at 126. Going to show something impressive this run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Yea, big shift west at h5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eventually in the evolution probably but it's a strong low already and it's really pumping hieghts out ahead. I guess its possible it could cut itself off too but it looks like at least a moderate hit to me for i95 east extraping lol GFS very similar...might not need to extrapolate after its done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 That ns s/w is becoming close to being a player rather than a kicker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Splits the low off too far south this run. Kind of looks like what models did 1/25/00. If the baroclinic zone is a couple miles NW it will greatly affect the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Both disturbances just disappear this run. GFS is showing us some magic tricks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 Fv3 is going to be slightly interesting when it finishes running .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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