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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We wish you would disappear 

Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles).

Is he correct or not?  If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see.  I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct.

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Just now, cbmclean said:

Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles).

Is he correct or not?  If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see.  I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct.

He/she/it is not here in good faith. Post history is 100% antagonistic. Whether it's right or wrong is irrelevent. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

He/she/it is not here in good faith. Post history is 100% antagonistic. Whether it's right or wrong is irrelevent. 

Well, you know that I am here in good faith.  Just looped through the 12 EPS/GEFS/GEPS all seem to have moderate + anomalies over Greenland at the ends of their respective runs.  Not the really stout block we have been looking for for so long.

On the plus side, did note that EPS had cold 850 MB temps to the end of its run, from Ellesmere Island to the Yucatan.

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9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't know.. we have 1-2 major arctic shots coming. It's hard to do a pattern change after that, maybe. The El Nino is in a strengthening trend based on subsurface, which favors +PNA. (look at this new +subsurface wave happening)

tlon-heat.png

Chuck? Who hacked your account and is posting relevant info?

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35 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles).

Is he correct or not?  If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see.  I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct.

It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant.  Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face.  We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant.  Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face.  We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. 

He has been given polite hints. We all have been there- the noob who doesn't know the protocol. But you listen to the vets' advice and read more/learn/ post less if you are serious about it. Add to it that he is out of our sub region and persists with the shiit posting, and he deserves to get mercilessly dragged.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It depends what time period and run he was referring too. But that’s irrelevant.  Some of what he says is accurate. Some is grossly exaggerated. And some is just flat out bullsh!t. But the problem is he isn’t reliable AND he only shows up to say negative things that he knows will annoy people. His posts just clutter up the threads because he has no cred since he would say it looks bad no matter what it actually looks like. Besides people don’t mind hearing bad news as much from a “friend” who gives both good and bad news. No one wants it from the jacka$$ who only shows up when your down to kick dirt in your face.  We have plenty of qualified “experts” in our forum who can be trusted to share the bad news. We don’t need his crap. 

Your points are reasonable.  Based on the fact that he (maybe sexist but for some reason I am assuming that he is male) is still posting here after the feedback that he has received I suspect that he is either

1. A troll.

2. Someone who honestly believes what he is posting and is stubbornly going to keep posting because he feels he is a prophet in the wilderness.

3. Someone who honestly believes in what he is posting and is mostly oblivious to the near universal scorn (could be possible if, for example his mental perception is different than the average person i.e. asperger's etc).

If he is a troll, then the constant shutdowns are worse than pointless, because they feed on negativity and cherish knowing that they are getting under your skin.

If he feels he is a "prophet" then the scorn probably just feeds his feeling of righteousness.

If he is a #3, then he probably isn't even noticing it.

To make a long story short: probably best to just ignore instead of negative feedback.

 

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles).

Is he correct or not?  If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see.  I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct.

Problem is that claim isnt true. You cant come in here and defend someone then claim you will look at the maps "tonight and see". I posted a 384 GFS map earlier where the NAO was CLEARLY negative.

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Like I mentioned I don't want it cold in Miami I want it cold enough here with moisture 

Me too. Ensembles seem to be in a state of flux and will likely continue to move things around. There's enough cold and activity in the flow over the next 10 days to keep us occupied. My take is above average chance at having at least 1 more accum event before Jan is over. I'm not even including the thursday possible flip to snow after rain. Sometime between Friday and the end of Jan will prob figure out a way to get something done. If that happens then Jan was actually pretty good. 3 accum events in any winter month here is a good month. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Me too. Ensembles seem to be in a state of flux and will likely continue to move things around. There's enough cold and activity in the flow over the next 10 days to keep us occupied. My take is above average chance at having at least 1 more accum event before Jan is over. I'm not even including the thursday possible flip to snow after rain. Sometime between Friday and the end of Jan will prob figure out a way to get something done. If that happens then Jan was actually pretty good. 3 accum events in any winter month here is a good month. 

 

Violently agree lol I think the rain ending as snow midweek is intriguing...I kinda have a good feeling about it 

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Violently agree lol I think the rain ending as snow midweek is intriguing...I kinda have a good feeling about it 

Downside is surface temps. Mid level cold will outrun the surface so it's going to be pretty soggy if/when it snows it will likely be above freezing. Won't be 10:1. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Downside is surface temps. Mid level cold will outrun the surface so it's going to be pretty soggy if/when it snows it will likely be above freezing. Won't be 10:1. 

I like to look at it this way...if the atmosphere keeps showing us that it knows how to snow then I would prefer that to day after day of nada. Eventually something will pop.

 

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18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Problem is that claim isnt true. You cant come in here and defend someone then claim you will look at the maps "tonight and see". I posted a 384 GFS map earlier where the NAO was CLEARLY negative.

I wasn't defending him so much as just trying to get to the bottom of the underlying claim (I have a lot invested emotionally in the -NAO; more than is healthy, which is foolish I know).  I missed your previous post. 

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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I like to look at it this way...if the atmosphere keeps showing us that it knows how to snow then I would prefer that to day after day of nada. Eventually something will pop.

 

Ensembles are pretty active for long leads. Lots of solutions with 2 or more snowfalls. I'm not enthused about big storm chances but all it takes is a fluke. This meteogram is a great visual of that. Once we get past the 25th activity really picks up. Gefs is the same too.

MTrUGKT.png

If the pna goes negative for a time then sobeit. Canada is still an icebox. As long as we don't get a north american evacuation of cold like we did in Dec then we're in fine shape for chances. Part of me is expecting the neg pna to either not develop at all or be short lived. Even if it does come we still are far from an extended shutout pattern. We're just getting glimpses of early Feb too. Who's to say that Feb doesn't lock into a decent snow pattern? Time will tell. 

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