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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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One thing that I've seen posted that i strongly disagree with is comparing the pac pattern starting to show up with what happened in Dec. Canada is a massive icebox in early Feb. There is an epo ridge on steroids on the panels. A neg pna is not great and of course we can all agree that a pos pna would be better but even if ens are right, there's a giant pool of cold air lurking close by. Not even in the same universe of the entire continent getting flooded with pac maritime air. Unless that changes too which is entirely possible, it would only take a minor shift to dump copious cold back into the US.

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41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps not enthused with the sun/mon coastal. Favors east/ots for now. 

36, 20, 14, 2% of EURO ensembles give DC area >1, 3, 6,12" of snow with the coastal; so while "not enthused" is arguably correct its encouraging that "disagrees" would be incorrect

How's that for a convoluted sentence. 

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If the last couple weeks and the 2 weeks in front of us have taught us anything... No pattern has legs. Good or bad. So even if the trough digs west, are we really that sure it's going to stay that way for weeks on end? I'll take the way under if the neg pna develops in the first place. 

100% agree. All models I’ve seen have at worst a transient trough and most keep reloading higher heights near or in the NAO domain.

If we can just hang on for a bit my hunch is we get that split flow to come back at some point and then Ji is in business

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37 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yes. I suggested this earlier. A winter LR thread for tracking patterns, and a medium range thread for tracking threats.

Agreed!  It might help to mitigate the meltdowns if we were looking at more specific threats in the medium range while keeping this thread for long term patterns. 

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Some thoughts from HM., He seems to think there is a renewed threat for a winter storm when the baroclinic zone reaches the East Coast later this week, ( after the mid-week storm ) .  

  • ore
    Replying to @antmasiello

    So after this midweek storm, the East Coast will be in threat zone as we move towards Feb?

     

 

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

Some thoughts from HM., He seems to think there is a renewed threat for a winter storm when the baroclinic zone reaches the East Coast later this week, ( after the mid-week storm ) .  

  • ore
    Replying to @antmasiello

    So after this midweek storm, the East Coast will be in threat zone as we move towards Feb?

     

 

Good lord. Sometimes reading HM makes me wish I went to Yale and not WVU. 

 

 

 

 

Sips beer....:lol:

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Interestingly... the GEPS moved away from the -pna idea in early Feb. It had been showing a similar look that the gefs/eps are showing but not at 12z today.

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png

Considering ens haven't showed a lot of skill with moving longwave features around in the d10+ range pretty much all winter, it would be counterintuitive to immediately jump on what the ens are showing now. Won't  surprise me at all if ens completely drop or continuously delay the pac degradation. I'm not going to get hung up on it until it breaks into d10 or under range. 

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

A lot of moisture- qpf per Gfs for Thursday system.  Juiced for sure and it's been showing rain to snow for several runs. I'll enjoy tracking this threat . I can easily see this becoming a rain to snow transition to a  2-4"  type wet paste Job with subtle changes

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_15.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_16.png

Then waiting in the wings is vodka best served frozen.  480dM.  That’s thick.  

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From DT ,

Eh, DT sounds not too excited , he states everything needs to come together perfectly for the Jan 28 th one as of this time.  

Also seems the NAO goes positive near the 27 th and 28 th and wave spacing is an issue too.  one system after another messes up the PNA

50501278_2042799739100607_411388043673468928_o.png?_nc_cat=103&_nc_ht=scontent.fphl2-1.fna&oh=e84429e8a11a0b7dc00ae31b358225c0&oe=5CB65158

 

WHATS NEXT - JAN 28?
 

WXRISK.COM·SUNDAY, JANUARY 20, 2019

 

In summary it is far too early to get excited about the big snowstorm showing up in the 12Z midday Sunday European model. The solution is viable in that it does not appear to be absurd but several things have to happen in order for this track to develop exactly as the models showing. The lack of the -NAO / Greenland block in the Teleconnections over North America is a problem and it's one reasons why these last systems came in land and why the one on January 24 will also may take an inland track. It is quite possible that the big system on January 28 may also come inland.
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6 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

-NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today.  Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies.

Our area (the one you don't live in and should leave and never come back to) correlates snowfall with a -AO.

ao.sprd2.gif

Our are got good snowfall in Nov and last weekend when the AO dipped. How did your area do?

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Nam insistent on showing some decent cad on Wed . It's been showing light mixed  frozen acc in the favored areas . I'm inclined to believe it . I'm expecting other models to pick up on this inside 48 hours. Now...by no means Is this more then a nuisance event but frozen is frozen and lets keep the train going :mapsnow:.

namconus_T2m_neus_47.png

I posted a similar map from the GFS yesterday. The CAD is being under modeled IMO. This is a real arctic airmass compared to last weeks sudo.

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11 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

-NAO has all but disappeared on guidance today.  Nothing but a fantasy anymore...never verifies.

Are you like an alternate account of Chuck's or something? Welcome to my ignore list. 

One more thing: Chuck up, shut.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We wish you would disappear 

I think the time has come to stop feeding the troll. Just make him feel hell-banned. Don't acknowledge that interloper.

@WxUSAF @stormtracker, please also do something about him. 5-post, weenie tag, or just block him from our subforum.

 

In any case, I'm still interested in the late-week storm. A nice change to snow with heavy rates would be a lot of fun to watch.

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