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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


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6 hours ago, ATreglown said:

Welcome to the board! I am also more of a reader not much poster, but really enjoy it even so. Lots of good analysis and information here; as well as, some comic relief and a bit of trolling. I find that most are welcome to questions... if you have any when it comes to really wanting to learn. 

Thanks good info and good meeting  you

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

As for where the pattern is headed in the LR, it looks a bit more ambiguous now than it did a few days ago. Not worth much analysis at this point, but clearly the EPac look is not as favorable towards D15 on the latest ensemble runs. I wont say anymore so as to not induce worry and panic lol. Best to keep the focus on the next 10 days for now and see how things shake out.

The Pacific has been trending worse on each ens run I’ve noticed.  Not a surprise since the Pac has been ruining things all winter.  Hopefully people keep expectations in check.

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Wasn't able to track while in Vegas so it will take me a few days to catch up but that aside I really can't understand some of the panic that I was seeing on these boards. What little I saw while out of town and what I am seeing now just doesn't warrant the panic. Admittedly it isn't that Goldilocks pattern that the models were throwing out just ten days ago but it is no where near a shut out pattern with many positives to offer. And considering most of our snow falls in flawed setups to begin with... Anyway, I am not really sure I would trust the models with the surface reflections and any possible storms beyond day 7 at this point. Just too many moving parts that will not be resolved until they near in time. All I know is if some of the main players on the models are correct we will most likely get our chances. The Thursday system for one shows a touch of promise with some positive trends noted though at this point any potential snow would probably favor north and west of the cities.

Probably will go more in depth on my thoughts later today or tomorrow morning if I can find the time. Right now I have to go get a second mortgage out on my house so I can get my dogs out of the kennel. :) 

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10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wasn't able to track while in Vegas so it will take me a few days to catch up but that aside I really can't understand some of the panic that I was seeing on these boards. What little I saw while out of town and what I am seeing now just doesn't warrant the panic. Admittedly it isn't that Goldilocks pattern that the models were throwing out just ten days ago but it is no where near a shut out pattern with many positives to offer. And considering most of our snow falls in flawed setups to begin with... Anyway, I am not really sure I would trust the models with the surface reflections and any possible storms beyond day 7 at this point. Just too many moving parts that will not be resolved until they near in time. All I know is if some of the main players on the models are correct we will most likely get our chances. The Thursday system for one shows a touch of promise with some positive trends noted though at this point any potential snow would probably favor north and west of the cities.

Probably will go more in depth on my thoughts later today or tomorrow morning if I can find the time. Right now I have to go get a second mortgage out on my house so I can get my dogs out of the kennel. :) 

Thanks for popping in and spreading some calm on this thread!  I was hoping you would post this morning, but assumed jet lag. Glad you made it back safely. 

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32 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

I see nothing that looks better on the 6z GFS compared to 0z.

Let me make this perfectly clear since you haven’t taken any of the hints...no one here gives a sh!t what you think.  

You are a troll. You never say a thing when it’s snowing or looks good then you show up to exaggerate when it looks anything less than perfect. This isn’t even close to your right region.  Most people here are in good faith. They enjoy this hobby and get some positive experience from it. You are just here to annoy people. You are PATHETIC!   

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17 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I will admit I’m a bit concerned about how the Pacific looks on the ensembles once we get into February. What is it that is suddenly breaking down that big ridge on the GEFS? I don’t recall seeing that a couple of days ago.

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

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10 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I will admit I’m a bit concerned about how the Pacific looks on the ensembles once we get into February. What is it that is suddenly breaking down that big ridge on the GEFS? I don’t recall seeing that a couple of days ago.

This is pretty much why I was discussing why I wanted to see a pv around the Hudson Bay region. Though we may deal with occasional bouts of suppression when the pv comes in strong it will help to mitigate a not so good PAC as it tends to force the trough eastward into the central and eastern CONUS. It also provides a readily supply of cold to help offset the PAC flow.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

My thoughts exactly.  Most here could care less about the MJO and for good reason sometimes but it is affecting the PAC pattern in the LR.  Fortunately cold will have already overwhelmed the pattern and the MJO will be decaying once again toward the end of the forecast period....if forecasts are correct.  I think we have enough drivers in our favor to blunt the effects but it may keep us from getting those 'epic' looks.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

Your post was good but was it so good you had to post it twice? :D

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

Is it fair to say that look could change back as quickly as it eroded?

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. 

ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago. 

Is this just the GEFS or us the EPS showing it also?

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53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

This is pretty much why I was discussing why I wanted to see a pv around the Hudson Bay region. Though we may deal with occasional bouts of suppression when the pv comes in strong it will help to mitigate a not so good PAC as it tends to force the trough eastward into the central and eastern CONUS. It also provides a readily supply of cold to help offset the PAC flow.

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

ambig.thumb.png.c0cae9b6dea4012f718a1a299ef9ff55.png

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58 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

My thoughts exactly.  Most here could care less about the MJO and for good reason sometimes but it is affecting the PAC pattern in the LR.  Fortunately cold will have already overwhelmed the pattern and the MJO will be decaying once again toward the end of the forecast period....if forecasts are correct.  I think we have enough drivers in our favor to blunt the effects but it may keep us from getting those 'epic' looks.

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks  to the extreme they had on the last update.   I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up.  There have been issues with  the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again.  

I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing. 

 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not an awful look, but if that is the direction things are headed in the PAC, we are going to want stronger blocking than the EPS has been advertising.

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period.

For a Feb look, it is even more a set back.  The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone. 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks  to the extreme they had on the last update.   I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up.  There have been issues with  the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again.  

I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, frd said:

The weekies seemed to have toned down relative looks  to the extreme they had on the last update.   I continue to feel the MJO this year does not get enough attention for messing things up.  There have been issues with  the MJO phases and the extreme Pac Jet over and over again.  

I do feel the Nino is pathetic. For coming up on Feb., the favored time and the Nino effects, for us the look is disappointing. 

 

Winter is canceled I guess. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period.

For a Feb look, it is even more a set back.  The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone. 

it's all relative I think...  It's not a KU pattern like we all wanted for weeks on end but it's a pretty good pattern and a KU is far from being out of the question.  Both gefs and eps suggesting some ridging across the south....but look at the low level arctic air that is still pressing....same panel that CAPE just posted.  And by this time the MJO should be all but dead again.

D7K1WdE.png

 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

This is really a set back coming in what was predicted previously for this time period.

For a Feb look, it is even more a set back.  The great looks on the West Coast and higher up are gone. 

We don't need perfection or anything close for it to snow over the next few weeks. Yeah those epic looks were pretty on paper, but they very rarely ever materialize as depicted. The one feature I am watching carefully now is the NAO. I don't buy the monster block looks the GFS/GEFS throws up at range. It has a propensity to do that and often times nothing even close materializes. It would be nice to see the EPS going a little more gung-ho with a strong west-based block.

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