paulythegun Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 All eps members agree on at least 0.5 in negative ao accumulation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 EPS is bone dry after the rain this week. And what little qpf there is is from a few amped up cutters that rain. The look didn’t change appreciably from the last few runs but suddenly it lost the moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. F him, he would say it looked like crap no matter what but it is dry. Could be a blip but this run suddenly lost that nice train of systems in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Same page....nope lol...classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, frd said: I love the looks of it and I like hour 288. There is potential , thats all you really want to see. Good run Getting another decent event may be tough this month for the same reason I've mentioned multiple times... our region tends to do better after a cold pattern sets in for a little while first. If we do get another good event before Feb then this Jan will be top tier for this region. For now I'm mostly focused on the first arctic shot next weekend materializing. Without that, the following week doesn't hold much promise. It's unanimous agreement for the artic shot moving in so confidence is pretty high. Never know until you're shivering. Once we cross that bridge I feel pretty good about increasing chances of a meaningful snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yeah. Not much to get excited about per the EPS Did you even look at the 500's. Honestly dude. Far better than what we've been dealing with. And if thats not good enough, look at the GEFS/GEPS. They are all rather similar through 228. What more do you want? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Did you even look at the 500's. Honestly dude. Far better than what we've been dealing with. And if thats not good enough, look at the GEFS/GEPS. They are all rather similar through 228. What more do you want? To annoy us all 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Setting up your own bowling pins Bob? You should really take it easy on 5921. Snowstorm needs some southern hospitality. I recommend a tranfer to the SE sub for the rest of the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think he was referring to the storm chance next weekend which doesn’t look very good on the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: To annoy us all I just wish I knew if he was being a smartass.....or stupid? Shall I start a pole? Rough couple days, but its friggin weather, and tomorrow there will be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I just wish I knew if he was being a smartass.....or stupid? Shall I start a pole? Rough couple days, but its friggin weather, and tomorrow there will be more. Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I just wish I knew if he was being a smartass.....or stupid? Shall I start a pole? Irony is strong with this one 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Been following you guys for a few years. You are family to me....first post 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 i thought i saw the beginnings of some split flow potential towards the end of the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I think he was referring to the storm chance next weekend which doesn’t look very good on the EPS. It's a crappy upper level setup for a coastal. Sharp and progressive troughs rarely work out. Within the realm but I won't spend much time thinking about it unless it's showing up inside of 4-5 days. The more lilely way something could work would be a light event from a northern stream shortwave tracking close enough. Even if it tracked north of us the antecedent conditions could potentially still be good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: All the ops have it in one form or the other. JMA, GGEM, GFS, FV3 and Euro. Haven’t checked the dumb thunder but it’s the tv met weenie model so I’m sure it’s got it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Irony is strong with this one You're such a holl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: You're such a holl Fresh fields is late with my delivery.. who can I call? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: Fresh fields is late with my delivery.. who can I call? i think he is at winn dixie now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i think he is at winn dixie now demotion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ji said: i think he is at winn dixie now Piggly Wiggly 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The EPS is a bad model.. I think that can be determined by now. 1) Look at how low quality the maps are. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Yeoman said: demotion Free Willy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: F him, he would say it looked like crap no matter what but it is dry. Could be a blip but this run suddenly lost that nice train of systems in the long range. The 500’s do look solid but the snowfall mean is pretty anemic right? Would be nice to see that bump up a bit considering we are in prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The 500’s do look solid but the snowfall mean is pretty anemic right? Would be nice to see that bump up a bit considering we are in prime climo. Lets get it cold, and see what we can gin up from there. Clippers...whatever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 52 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Lets get it cold, and see what we can gin up from there. Clippers...whatever. This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. I think that was Feb 2015. But yes, great storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: The 500’s do look solid but the snowfall mean is pretty anemic right? Would be nice to see that bump up a bit considering we are in prime climo. yeah, thats a fair point, but we've got to change the base state, cause this aint workin, so I'll take the cold, and see where we go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z GFS looks active, clipper then decent look at 168 to maybe get something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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