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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va
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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't understand why there's any bickering or panic. I can't find anything other than 10-15 day ops that show anything worth getting mad at. 

if there is any rain after next weekend...it will be considered on of the most epic long range forecasts in my tracking history

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

There is a 100% chance we get multiple rain events after next weekend through the end of Feb. Sorry dude. 

if this  pattern lives up to its billing..it should be snow or no...otherwise the pattern never really changed

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Just now, Ji said:

if this  pattern lives up to its billing..it should be snow or no...otherwise the pattern never really changed

There's no such thing as a long term snow or no pattern in this region. The only way that can happen is a long duration -10 temp regime. The only way that is possible is an extreme stable block and you know what that means.... drier than Phoenix

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

A significant change is coming no matter what. Of course if it doesnt immediately flipping to cold/snow the acknowledgement of a pattern change will be subjective.... lol. Model skill decreases greatly on the front side of changes and the upcoming period through the end of the month will be no different. Not sure about your area but the mid atlantic generally doesnt do well on the front side of changes towards a colder and blockier regime. The longer it lasts the chances for winter precip keep going up. 

Will we flip to a classic big snow pattern before Feb? You can never be sure until it's happening. I'm forecasting and steep increase in lack of patience and steep decrease in post quality and critical thinking. 

Everyone knows this I know, but this forum needs more “Chills” n “PSU’s”. Great stuff here.

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The end is near, I think. This type of pattern at this time of year rolled forward to February when LR models are starting to show a western Canada/GOA trough is a blast +EPO. 10mb is cooling to, which has a +0 day-best correlation with 500mb. This has been a trend the last few Winter's, colder than usual 10mb. 

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Just now, eurojosh said:

I can't be the only one lurking until someone with the Euro precip panels chimes in?

Congrats NYC. It's a jacked up evolution with a weird miller b'ish transfer with a negative trough. Slp in the atlantic moves SE-NW. Basically no chance the euro just nailed that evolution a week out.

To me it looks like a half decent overrunning setup even though verbatim there is no love for our area this run.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Congrats NYC. It's a jacked up evolution with a weird miller b'ish transfer with a negative trough. Slp in the atlantic moves SE-NW. Basically no chance the euro just nailed that evolution a week out.

To me it looks like a half decent overrunning setup even though verbatim there is no love for our area this run.

Both GFS, fv3 and GGEM have coastals somewhere on the east coast during the same time period. Definitely something to watch. 

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Taken literally, it's snowing in Florida while it's raining in northern Connecticut.

The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible.  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible.  

What’s the spread on the ens for next weekends potential coastal? Is there agreement of at least a coastal? 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible.  

Is it also the kind of setup that would favor an Ash Wednesday 1962 type of storm if it took the right track?

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Is it also the kind of setup that would favor an Ash Wednesday 1962 type of storm if it took the right track?

I'd have to look at the charts for that storm. Not sure the setup would generate an historic storm. If the streams were to phase it would be pretty far north. 

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9 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yeah.  Not much to get excited about per the EPS

Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. 

Setting up your own bowling pins Bob?   You should really take it easy on 5921.  :)

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. 

I love the looks of it and I like hour 288. There is potential , thats all you really want to see.  Good run  

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